NATO foreign ministers on Tuesday appeared set to reject Ukraine’s push for membership progress, ahead of Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States.
The incoming U.S. president has vowed to press for a quick deal to end Russia's war - leaving Kyiv scrambling to position itself ahead of his January inauguration.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that obtaining security guarantees from the Western alliance and supplies of key weaponry are prerequisites for Kyiv to begin talks about halting its fight.
Zelenskyy said Sunday that Kyiv was hoping NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels with Ukraine's top diplomat would issue "recommendations" to grant his country a membership invitation.
"But we have no illusions – there are some skeptical countries," he said.
Until now, the leaders of NATO heavyweights the United States and Germany have backed away from Ukrainian membership fearing it could drag the alliance into a war with Russia.
Diplomats said that with the administrations of U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on their way out Kyiv hoped their foreign ministers could have more leeway.
U.S. officials, however, in private say the Biden administration will not back Ukraine's push as they believe the president-elect would rescind any offer.
"Such a gesture one month before the new administration will infuriate Trump, who will act contrary to this immediately," one European diplomat at NATO agreed.
Briefing reporters Monday as Washington announced a new $725 million military aid package for Kyiv, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller reiterated only that "Ukraine is on the path to NATO, and NATO is on the path towards Ukraine's inclusion."
"Certainly, every time we can get together as allies and talk with our Ukrainian counterparts, it's an important step along that road towards NATO membership," he said of Tuesday's talks.
Boots on the ground?
In Kyiv at the weekend, the European Union's new top diplomat Kaja Kallas stated publicly that the bloc "wants Ukraine to win this war" – but also briefed reporters on bolstering Ukraine ahead of negotiations, with NATO membership the "strongest security guarantee."
While moving Ukraine closer to the alliance appears unlikely right now, two Western diplomats said initial discussions had begun on whether European troops could be deployed to enforce any eventual cease-fire.
"In many countries, there is very serious thinking on various possible scenarios and how we can contribute to security guarantees," a European diplomat said.
"We need to be able to have an idea to communicate to the U.S.."
Trump has said he could end Russia's war in Ukraine in a matter of hours but has given no details on how he intends to achieve that goal.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned against any moves to place Ukraine under the U.S.-led NATO security umbrella.
Trump's new envoy on the Ukraine war Keith Kellogg has floated shelving Ukraine's long-standing NATO ambitions as part of a peace deal – while still providing Kyiv security guarantees.
As Ukraine presses on the diplomatic side, its forces are buckling across the eastern front in the face of Russia's ground offensive.
Kyiv is looking to wring all the weaponry it can from the Biden administration amid fears Trump could cut aid once he returns to the White House.
At a meeting in Brussels last week Ukraine called on allies to give it air defense systems capable of shooting down the new Oreshnik experimental ballistic missile fired by Moscow.
Those include the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the Arrow system developed by Israel and the U.S., officials said.
Putin unleashed his new weapon against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last month in retaliation for strikes by Ukraine on Russia using U.S. and British missiles.
The Kremlin leader also threatened to target government buildings in Kyiv, and those countries supplying the arms to Ukraine.
NATO diplomats said they doubted Washington would move quickly to provide Ukraine with new systems, given how long it took Biden to give the green light on delivering less-modern Patriot defenses.