A new revision of the strategic map in the Middle East is on the cards with the downfall of Syria's Bashar Assad in a lighting anti-regime operations.
The dictators had for nearly 14 years held off an uprising that many believed had been exhausted. But his downfall followed a series of battlefield convulsions for other allies of Iran.
Israel has all but decimated the Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon since September, while the assassination of Hamas figureheads has dealt major blows to Assad's key backer Tehran.
Andreas Krieg, a security specialist at King's College London, said that Iran and other "Axis of Resistance" members would now have to concentrate on their "home turf."
"And so the axis will lose its transnational flavor and its regional strategic depth."
The lightning speed at which the anti-regime forces, spearheaded by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, took Aleppo and then the country stunned the whole world.
No one in Syria, or in the capitals that opposed or supported Assad, had expected Damascus to fall so quickly. Attention had been focused on Israel's Gaza genocide and Israel's strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The 59-year-old Syrian strongman long seemed secure with the backing of his Iranian, Russian and Hezbollah allies.
Some Arab neighbors had even started moves to normalize relations, strained since the civil war started with the repression of anti-government protests in 2011.
But HTS smashed that outlook in just a few days when cities fell and statues of Assad's feared father Hafez Assad were toppled.
The Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, drew Iran and its "Axis of Resistance" allies into a conflict that has exposed their weaknesses.
Hezbollah's military power has been undermined and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been assassinated by Israel.
Israel had already been attacking Hezbollah's military and financial supply lines from Iran through Syria.
That support faces a fresh threat from the new masters of Damascus who will point to Hezbollah's crucial role in keeping Assad in power for so long.
Iran's remaining supporters in Yemen and Iraq, while mounting occasional attacks on the United States and Israel, appear unable to effect major change.
Russia, embroiled in a resource-sapping war with Ukraine, also faces high-stakes decisions as its biggest Middle East naval base is at Tartus on Syria's Mediterranean coast.
"They are likely going to lose that," said Krieg. "I can't see how the new regime or the new socio-political order will allow the Russians to remain after everything the Russians have done to prop up the Assad regime."
Türkiye, a key supporter of the Syrian opposition, is the big regional winner from Assad's fall, Krieg added.
But while it has influence, it does not control the opposition, he said.
With conflict being fought on several Middle East fronts, the region will also have to handle the new U.S. administration of Donald Trump.
"In a moment of complete uncertainty, this transformative event makes everything so unpredictable," said Aron Lund, a specialist at the Century International think tank.
"It is not just Assad's regime falling, it is also the question of what comes in its place. And how long does it take to crystallize? So you could easily have various types of regional contests play out in Syria," Lund told AFP.
Various countries in the region had been backing different anti-Assad factions in Syria since 2011.
But the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states had recently restarted relations with Assad, after over a decade of his isolation.
Many states have been fearful of some anti-government groups in Syria. They will face even greater challenges from the new Damascus rulers, said Lund.
But Israel, and its friends and enemies, expect the frontlines to shift again when Trump returns to the White House in January.
From Morocco to Saudi Arabia and Israel, countries will be hoping to secure Trump's backing through his renowned deal-making diplomacy.
He had said in the past that the United States should not be involved in Syria's war. But Trump will also have to deal with a new Middle East.
