Iran's presidential polls face stormy seas amid public disillusionment
Iranian voters participate in a snap presidential election to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash, the Iranian Embassy, Baghdad, Iraq, June 28, 2024. (Reuters Photo)


Iranians headed to the polls on Friday for an unexpected election following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.

The election comes amid widespread public disillusionment in the Islamic Republic, fueled by years of economic challenges, large-scale protests, and regional tensions in the Middle East.

Voters are presented with a stark choice between hard-line contenders and a lesser-known candidate aligned with Iran's reformist faction, which aims to reform the Shiite theocracy from within.

As has been the norm since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, women and advocates for significant change find themselves excluded from the ballot.

Moreover, the electoral process lacks oversight from internationally recognized monitors.

The voting comes as wider tensions grip the Middle East over the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip.

In April, Iran launched its first-ever direct retaliatory attack on Israel in response to an attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, while groups that Tehran arms in the region – such as Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels – are engaged in the fighting and have escalated their attacks.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to enrich uranium to near weapons-grade levels and maintains a stockpile large enough to build – should it choose to do so – several nuclear weapons.

While Iran's 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all matters of state, presidents can steer the country's policies toward confrontation or negotiation with the West.

However, given the record-low turnout in recent elections, it remains unclear how many Iranians will participate in Friday's poll.

Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, who oversees the election, announced all polls had opened at 8 a.m. local time.

Khamenei cast one of the election's first votes, urging the public to turn out.

State television later broadcast images of polling places across the country with modest lines.

Analysts broadly describe the race as a three-way contest.

There are two hard-liners: former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf.

Then there’s the reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian, who has aligned himself with figures such as former President Hassan Rouhani, under whose administration Tehran struck the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

The nuclear deal eventually collapsed, and hard-liners regained control.

A higher turnout could bolster Pezeshkian's chances. The 69-year-old heart surgeon seeks a return to the atomic accord and improved relations with the West.

However, it remains unclear if Pezeshkian can generate the momentum needed to draw voters to the ballot, amid calls for a boycott, including from imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi.

More than 61 million Iranians over 18 are eligible to vote, with about 18 million aged 18 to 30.

Iranian law requires a winner to receive more than 50% of all votes cast.

If that threshold is not reached, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff a week later.

Iran has had only one runoff presidential election, in 2005, when hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defeated former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Raisi, 63, died in the May 19 helicopter crash that also killed the country's foreign minister and others.

He was seen as a protege of Khamenei and a potential successor as supreme leader.

However, he was also known for his involvement in Iran's 1988 mass executions and subsequent crackdowns on dissent following protests over the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman detained by police for allegedly improperly wearing the mandatory headscarf, or hijab.