Israeli aggression in the Middle East since Oct. 7, 2023, particularly its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and growing confrontations with Iran, have set the region on a warpath.

Experts underline that as Israel expands its regional influence by targeting Iran-backed groups, Tehran’s retaliation is increasingly destabilizing the entire area. These have led to a reassessment of strategic and diplomatic balance in the Middle East.

Speaking to Daily Sabah, experts weighed in on how the conflagration might play out following an Israeli attack near the capital.

Oğuzhan Bilgin, an associate professor of international relations at Ankara’s Hacı Bayram Veli University, said that since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has been seeking out a confrontation with Iran.

"Israel has long positioned Iran as an enemy in the Middle East, aiming to consolidate both its domestic support and the backing of the U.S. and the West. It should not be forgotten that Israel and the U.S. often plan their moves together," he said.

Another expert from Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, associate professor of international relations, Şuay Nilhan Açıkalın, said that the U.S. is the most significant player influencing the rising tensions between Israel and Iran. "With the upcoming U.S. elections, we see Israel aligning with American directives and conducting more targeted strikes," she said.

Bilgin added that, "Israel initially targeted Iran’s consulate in Damascus, followed by the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, in an attempt to keep Iran in an adversarial position." However, he points out that "Iran responded with 'strategic patience.'"

According to the Iran-based IRNA news agency, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke for the first time regarding the attack. "Iran's power must be demonstrated to Israel, and officials will decide how this will be done," he said. "This should be carried out in the most appropriate way for Iran and the Iranian people," he added.

Bilgin emphasized that Iran's cautious approach has allowed it to maintain its deterrence capability and control over its proxies while avoiding confrontation. Although Iran has been compelled to retaliate to a certain extent, Bilgin explained that it has done so without provoking Israel to declare war, as such a conflict would inevitably involve the United States as well.

Low-intensity policy

Açıkalın noted, "For now, a regional war or escalated conflict between Iran and Israel does not align with U.S. regional interests." However, she added, "This situation may change after the elections, and the future landscape is uncertain."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also addressed the attack, adding, "Iran's enemies should know that every form of foolishness will be met with finesse and intelligence."

Açıkalın also commented on recent Israeli strikes in Syria targeting Russian air bases, linking these events not only to regional conflicts but also to the trajectory of the Russian-Ukrainian war. She warned that a weakened Russia could increase the likelihood of a new front opening in the Middle East.

Bilgin emphasizes that entering into a direct hot conflict would mean not only a significant escalation for Israel but also U.S. involvement in the war. "This situation could lead to the West taking action against Iran," he said.

Bilgin noted that Iran is trying to avoid conflict due to a loss of domestic support and uncertainties regarding regime security, while also pursuing a strategy of retaliation that preserves its prestige. "The Israeli-Iranian rivalry could impact not only bilateral relations but also other regional dynamics," he added.

Açıkalın stressed that the Israeli-Iranian conflict risks triggering a significant migration wave in the Middle East. "Türkiye has been warning about this since day one," she said. "Given the large refugee population in Lebanon, displaced individuals from Lebanon could initiate a new migration wave."

Before the recent conflicts, Lebanon hosted around 1.5 million refugees, predominantly Syrian, as reported by the United Nations and other sources. Amid escalating hostilities, the Lebanese government estimated that over 100,000 people have been internally displaced, largely due to the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontations in border regions. Pezeshkian also commented on the attack, stating, "We are not seeking war, but we will defend our country and our people, and we will provide an appropriate response to the Zionist regime's aggression."

Moreover, many displaced residents, particularly those with Syrian heritage, have been forced back into Syria for safety, contributing to an increased cross-border movement into conflict-ridden areas. These events could catalyze a regional migration crisis, as Türkiye, itself host to one of the largest Syrian refugee communities in the region, has warned.

Bilgin added, "Iran's future is significant in terms of how the Development Project that Türkiye is developing with Iraq will affect the relationships of countries defined as having relative spheres of influence in Iran." He emphasized, "The risks in the Middle East are very high in the long term, and the coming days will be decisive for the future of this process."

The 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) road and rail project aims to turn Iraq into a transit hub, connecting Asia and Europe with a link between the country's Grand Faw Port in the oil-rich south and Türkiye in the north.

Lastly, Bilgin emphasized a long-term risk of instability in the Middle East and that the coming days will be decisive for the region's future.

According to Israeli media, the retaliation by Israel was also addressed during a closed session in the Iranian Parliament. During this session, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated, "It is inevitable that a response will be given to Israel." The Iranian Foreign Ministry also issued a statement implying that a response would be made to Israel's attack. The ministry referred to Article 51 of the U.N.’s Charter, stating, "Iran has the right to defend itself against this aggression."

Retaliation and conflict

Valeria Giannotta, an academic expert on Turkish politics and international relations who currently works with Italy’s Center for International Political Studies (CeSPI), observes that "the continuation of operations by both countries despite international warnings underscores the inadequacy of diplomatic solutions through institutions like the U.N." She asserts that the inability of the U.N. Security Council and the global community to intervene effectively further elevates the risk of conflict in the region, especially in crisis areas like Lebanon and Gaza. "The international community's silence in the face of these conflicts may lead to even larger confrontations in the future," she warns.

In a speech last October at a pro-Palestine rally, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called out Western powers as "the main culprit" behind Israel's "massacre" of Palestinians in Gaza.

As tensions between Israel and Iran rise, experts caution that oil prices may surge, impacting not only the Middle East but also major global players. Giannotta noted that these developments could bring new dynamics to the energy market.

Energy and security

From an energy perspective, Açıkalın underscored, "While oil prices have seen stabilization since the COVID-19 pandemic, this ongoing conflict could disrupt that balance." Monitoring daily oil production levels, she noted that prices are currently under control, though this stability could shift depending on how the situation evolves. Additionally, she pointed out that conflicts in Yemen and the Houthi attacks have already increased the cost of trade through the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, adding pressure to global supply chains.

Echoing Giannotta, Açıkalın highlighted the potential for an uptick in oil prices stemming from the Israeli-Iranian tensions. "Sanctions and isolation efforts targeting Iran may lessen the impact on the West, but the consequences are likely to be more pronounced for China," Açıkalın explained.

Giannotta added, "Should an outright conflict break out between Israel and Iran, other major players such as Russia and Saudi Arabia are likely to step in to fill any emerging gaps in the energy market."

Giannotta reiterated that any halt in Iran's energy exports could further elevate the roles of other regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia. "While Iran's limited influence on global energy markets might mitigate immediate effects on the West, oil giants like Saudi Arabia are well-positioned to step in and compensate for any potential shortfall," she observed. She also warns that any significant actions taken by Iran in the energy market would pose challenges for other regional countries, potentially impacting global markets and having far-reaching implications worldwide.