Hours after a U.S.-brokered cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, Lebanon awoke to the sound of celebratory gunfire, a stark contrast to the usual Israeli airstrikes and buzzing drones.
For a brief moment, after a year of devastating conflict, the sound of war was replaced by joy as displaced families returned to their towns and villages in southern and eastern Lebanon.
However, the optimism quickly turned to reality.
The destruction is staggering – entire towns and villages, especially along the border, have been reduced to rubble, with parts of Beirut severely damaged.
The World Bank estimates losses at $8.5 billion, leaving Lebanon to grapple with the harsh aftermath of yet another catastrophe.
For a nation already reeling from years of compounded crises, the cease-fire brings as many questions as it does answers.
Chief among them: Who will pay for the rebuilding? Will Hezbollah fully withdraw from the south, as stipulated by the deal? And how will the Lebanese army manage this delicate process?
The 60-day cease-fire, under Security Council Resolution 1701, calls for a gradual withdrawal of Israeli and Hezbollah forces from southern Lebanon, followed by Lebanese army deployment.
The military is tasked with ensuring Hezbollah dismantles its infrastructure and does not rebuild, a volatile mandate that puts the army in a precarious position, given Hezbollah’s significant influence within Lebanon’s Shiite community.
Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah lawmaker, confirmed the group’s willingness to cooperate but insisted that Hezbollah would retain its role as Lebanon's primary defense against Israel.
“When Israel attacks our country, we will fight and resist. This is our right,” Fadlallah said, further complicating the Lebanese army's mission.
Analysts agree that the army, funded by the U.S. and other Western nations, is in an impossible position. “To suggest that it can dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure is, frankly, absurd,” said Lebanese commentator Mike Azar.
As Lebanese forces begin deploying south, the U.S. and France will oversee monitoring efforts to ensure the terms of Resolution 1701 are met.
But questions about the cease-fire's viability remain. “If there’s any real commitment from all sides, it will be tested soon,” warned Salman Shaikh, a former U.N. advisor.
The risks are clear: Many fear Lebanon will bear the brunt of the burden, with Israel potentially having more room to act against Hezbollah if it perceives violations of the deal. "The pressure on Lebanon is immense,” said Matt Duss, vice president of the Center for International Policy.
Financially, Lebanon is in dire straits.
The country has been mired in a crippling economic crisis since 2019, with millions pushed into poverty.
The Lebanese military, already stretched thin, is underfunded and plans to deploy an additional 10,000 troops south of the Litani River could be unattainable without significant international assistance.
At a donor conference in Paris, $1 billion was pledged, but none of that aid has reached Lebanon yet.
Meanwhile, Mercy Corps warns that the worst civilian impacts may still be ahead.
The Lebanese economy has already shrunk by 6.4% in the final months of the war alone, exacerbating the country’s fragile state.
Despite offers from Iran, the Gulf Arab states, which assisted in rebuilding after the 2006 war, are wary of Lebanon's political system and are hesitant to provide aid.
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s internal political paralysis deepens, with no president elected for over two years.
Senior Lebanese politician Alain Aoun acknowledged the scale of the challenges ahead, including securing reconstruction funding and addressing the country’s myriad unresolved economic issues.
Hezbollah’s decision to interfere in the Israel-Palestinian conflict by firing rockets into northern Israel in October 2023 angered many, even within its own ranks.
Lawmaker Gebran Bassil, a former key ally, said Hezbollah should serve the state, not the other way around.
Speaker Nabih Berri, another Hezbollah ally, is now calling for a presidential vote in January to help resolve Lebanon's political impasse.
The future of Lebanon hinges on both internal reforms and the success of international support.
As Shaikh pointed out, the international community must help Lebanon resolve its longstanding issues, many of which extend beyond the conflict with Israel.
