Northern Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is gearing up for its long-awaited parliamentary elections, scheduled on Oct. 20 after a six-year delay. The campaign season officially started on Sept. 25, with candidates from various political parties placing campaign posters and banners throughout the region's streets, calling for more support from over 2.8 million eligible voters. Additionally, 251,000 voters have already participated in special voting arrangements on Friday.

The Election Commission has established 1,266 polling stations equipped with 6,318 ballot boxes. In total, 1,191 candidates from 13 political parties and 124 independent candidates are vying for 100 seats in the KRG parliament.

Originally scheduled for late 2022, the elections were postponed five times due to intense political disagreements between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over the region’s electoral system, particularly concerning the allocation of minority quota seats. Its parliament was suspended in May 2023, delaying the elections amid an ongoing financial crisis fueled by disputes with the Iraqi central government.

Speaking to Daily Sabah in an exclusive interview, Mehmet Alaca, an expert on Iraqi and KRG politics, said, "The ongoing tensions between the PUK and the KDP have significantly damaged the achievements the KRG has made so far and continue to do so. Both the KRG's status and its economic and political gains over the past 20 to 30 years have been severely undermined. If these tense discourses during the election process persist after Sunday's elections, it is clear that these gains will erode even further."

Minority quota controversy

One of the most contentious issues leading up to this election has been the revision of the parliamentary quota for minorities. Previously, the KRG parliament allocated 11 seats to minority groups: five for Turkmens, five for Christians, and one for Armenians.

However, a ruling by the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court has now reduced this to five seats: two for Turkmens, two for Christians and one for Armenians.

Alaca questions, "The main point of contention here is whether this quota benefits minorities themselves or the dominant powers."

The quota decision has drawn sharp criticism from minority groups, who argue that reducing the quota weakens their political representation in the region. Despite the controversy, voter turnout is expected to remain strong. The ruling came in response to lawsuits from members of the PUK, who contended that the 1992 electoral law was being "politically manipulated," particularly "by the KDP to consolidate power​."

In an interview with Anadolu Agency (AA), Aydin Maruf, the KRG minister of religious affairs and a candidate for the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF), announced that the party is running as a unified list in the upcoming KRG elections, aiming for better representation for the Turkmen community. He criticized the current system, which allows only one representative each from Irbil and Sulaymaniyah, arguing it is inadequate for the population of about 350,000 Turkmen in those areas.

However, according to Alaca, "the minority quotas have typically worked in favor of the KDP, which is why the PUK has long been uncomfortable with it and even filed a lawsuit with the Federal Court in this regard."

Election campaign overview

The KDP’s campaign messaging seems fragmented, with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's faction more focused on responding to provocations from the PUK rather than delivering a clear and cohesive platform. Additionally, the party’s attention is divided as it prepares to form the 10th cabinet, with Masrour Barzani busy launching various projects across the region. Meanwhile, Nechirvan Barzani, the region’s president and a deputy leader of the KDP alongside Masrour, has taken a quieter approach this time, contributing less visibly to the campaign.

Under Bafel Talabani's leadership, the PUK has taken a notably more aggressive approach in this election cycle. Talabani’s campaign has been characterized by direct and provocative statements, simple but impactful slogans, and the use of religious themes to rally supporters. His strategy is distinct from previous PUK campaigns, as he has adopted a confrontational style, frequently mentioning Masrour Barzani by name in his speeches. This direct criticism of the KDP has escalated tensions between the two parties.

Alaca deems the ongoing election process "fierce," especially when Talabani is considered. From statements such as "we will destroy the KDP, we will take Irbil" to facial expressions, Talabani's campaign "is progressing very aggressively," Alaca said.

"Even though the PUK is the second strongest political actor in KRG's political order, it behaves like a very aggressive opposition actor in this election campaign," the expert said.

Alaca said, "What is interesting is that Talabani continues this rhetoric not only in Sulaymaniyah but also in Duhok, where the KDP is very influential."

Talabani’s focus on directly addressing the KDP, particularly through attacks on Masrour Barzani, has forced the KDP into a defensive position, limiting the space for smaller opposition parties to make their mark. Talabani’s new style of speech, more assertive and straightforward, appears designed to appeal to voters frustrated with the status quo while increasing friction between the region's two dominant parties.

The New Generation Movement, led by Shaswar Abdulwahid, is positioning itself as a fresh alternative, although its message has not changed significantly from previous campaigns. Many view this election as a turning point for the New Generation, as remaining in opposition without gaining influence could weaken its relevance.

"I don’t think it will gain much momentum," Alaca said when asked about the New Generation Movement's potential on Sunday, and added, "Their vote share and number of seats may remain similar to the last term."

The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU), led by Salahaddin Bahaaddin, has chosen a traditional and respectable campaign style, avoiding the boldness that often resonates with voters. However, the party has gained momentum after winning a legal case in Iraq’s Federal Court regarding the non-payment of salaries to employees in the KRG region. This victory compelled both the Iraqi government and the KRG to address the salary issue, easing financial pressures on citizens.

This success has boosted the KIU’s credibility, positioning it as a party capable of delivering real change on crucial issues like salary distribution. Consequently, the KIU is expected to draw increased voter support in the upcoming elections, particularly from those affected by the ongoing economic crisis. The party continues to be a strong competitor to the KDP in Duhok, where it has consistently opposed the ruling party for over two decades.

Alaca also pointed to the Islamic parties' "similar" election campaign tone to that of the PUK. "It’s almost as if they all emerged from the same mold, acting as a unified force, voicing their opinions with strong opposition to the KDP," he said.

"This is understandable because the KDP doesn’t share power either administratively or economically," he added.

The Kurdistan Justice Group, previously known as the Kurdistan Islamic Group and led by Ali Bapir, is taking a more subdued approach in its campaign this election season. The decision to rebrand reflects a desire to reach a wider audience by moving away from the "Islamic" label. However, this change could risk alienating longtime supporters who valued the party's Islamic identity, potentially impacting its success at the polls. Despite these hurdles, the Kurdistan Justice Group is expected to maintain solid backing, particularly in Ranya and the Garmian region, where it has historically had influence.

The People’s Front, led by Lahur Talabani, is currently facing some confusion about its political direction after being removed from the PUK by Bafel Talabani. Lahur announced the formation of his own party to connect with voters, hitting the streets, engaging with people in local markets and chatting with them personally about their concerns.

The Helwest (Stance) movement, led by Ali Hama Salih, provides a unique and balanced critique of both the KDP and PUK, positioning him as one of the more independent voices in the election. Salih has previously served as a member of parliament and has been actively involved in addressing financial issues within the legislature, contributing to his popularity.

While he may not secure widespread support, his focus on practical financial concerns could resonate with voters looking for a genuine third option in a political landscape dominated by the two main parties.

Kurdish political landscape

In the upcoming elections, the KDP and PUK will face off again. The KDP is focusing on nationalist rhetoric and appealing to Kurdish pride, while the PUK is positioning itself as a reformist alternative, criticizing the KDP’s "self-imposition" and promising new policies to tackle the region's financial crisis and improve relations with Baghdad.

Meanwhile, the KDP emphasizes its governance record and Kurdish unity, seeking support from voters concerned about national identity and regional security. As tensions rise between the two parties, Nechirvan Barzani has called for a "silent and civil" campaign, urging all parties to focus on promises that build trust with the citizens. He stressed that the region's stability relies on political cooperation and constructive dialogue.

On Oct. 15, 2024, Aysar Yassin, spokesperson for the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission, announced that 110,000 biometric cards remain uncollected across the Kurdistan Region. Distribution figures reveal that 989,820 cards have been given out in Irbil (with 25,846 still uncollected), 1,073,671 cards in Sulaymaniyah and Halabja (with 72,400 uncollected), and 725,709 cards in Duhok (with 12,139 yet to be collected)

On the same day, Emad Jamil, the head of the media team for the IHEC, announced via social media that: "The United Nations will provide 25 observers, the European Union will send three observers, civil society organizations will contribute 47 observers, and election observation organizations will supply 1,604 observers on Election Day."

Concerning the media, Jamil indicated that "31 international channels and a total of 101 Arabic and international media outlets will cover the sixth parliamentary elections in (the region)."

On Election Day, 13 polling stations will have 276 observers. The U.N. will provide 25 observers, the EU will send three observers, civil society organizations will contribute 47 observers, and election observation organizations will supply 1,604 observers.

The stakes are high for this election as the KRG continues to navigate through economic hardship and political uncertainty. The prolonged financial dispute with Baghdad has left the region struggling to pay public sector salaries and manage its budget. With the election finally on the horizon, voters will be looking for solutions to both the political stalemate and the economic challenges they face.