Muslim and Arab voters in the U.S. frustrated with unconditional support for Israel, as it commits war crimes in Gaza, are moving away from Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris to support Jill Stein, which could deal a serious blow to Harris in battleground states.
A Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) data released this month based on a late August poll showed that in Michigan, home to a large Arab American community, 40% of Muslim voters backed the Green Party's Stein. Republican candidate Donald Trump got 18% with Harris, who is President Joe Biden's vice president, trailing at 12%.
Stein also leads Harris among Muslims in Arizona and Wisconsin, battleground states with sizable Muslim populations where Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by slim margins.
Harris was the leading pick of Muslim voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Trump prevailed in Nevada with 27%, just ahead of Harris' 26%, according to the CAIR poll of 1,155 Muslim voters nationwide. All are battleground states that have swung on narrow margins in recent elections.
Biden won the 2020 Muslim vote, credited in some exit polls with more than 80% of their support, but Muslim backing of Democrats has fallen sharply since Israel's nearly year-long attacks in Gaza.
About 3.5 million Americans reported being of Middle Eastern descent in the 2020 U.S. Census, the first year such data was recorded. Although they make up about 1% of the total U.S. population of 335 million, their voters may prove crucial in a race that opinion polls show to be close.
On Tuesday, Harris called for an end to the Israel-Gaza war and the return of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. She also said Israel must not reoccupy the Palestinian enclave and backed a two-state solution.
But at closed-door meetings in Michigan and elsewhere, Harris campaign officials have rebuffed appeals to halt or limit U.S. arms shipments to Israel, community leaders say.
"Decades of community organizing and civic engagement and mobilizing have not manifested into any benefit," said Faye Nemer, founder of the Michigan-based MENA American Chamber of Commerce to promote U.S. trade with the Middle East.
"We're part of the fabric of this country, but our concerns are not taken into consideration," she said.
Stein is aggressively campaigning on Gaza, while Trump representatives are meeting with Muslim groups and promising a swifter peace than Harris can deliver.
The Harris campaign declined to comment on the shifting dynamics; officials tasked with Muslim outreach were not available for interviews.
Stein's 2016 run ended with just over 1% of the popular vote, but some Democrats blamed her and the Green Party for taking votes away from Democrat Hillary Clinton. Pollsters give Stein no chance of winning in 2024.
But her support for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, for an immediate U.S. arms embargo on Israel and for student movements to force universities to divest from weapons investments have made her a star in pro-Palestinian circles. Her running mate Butch Ware, a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, is Muslim.
This month Stein spoke at ArabCon in Dearborn, Michigan, an annual gathering of Arab Americans and was featured on the cover of The Arab American News under the headline "The Choice 2024." Last week in an interview with The Breakfast Club, a New York radio program, she said, "Every vote cast for our campaign is a vote against genocide," a charge that Israel denies.
At the same time, the Trump team has hosted dozens of in-person and virtual events with Arab Americans and Muslims in Michigan and Arizona, said Richard Grenell, Trump's former acting Director of National Intelligence.
"Arab American leaders in Detroit know this is their moment to send a powerful message to the Democrat party that they shouldn’t be taken for granted," Grenell said. Trump has said he would secure more Arab-Israeli peace deals.
The Trump outreach and Stein's appeal could translate into numbers that might threaten Harris. The Green Party is on most state ballots, including all battleground states that could decide the election, except for Georgia and Nevada, where the party is suing to be included.
Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by just thousands of votes in some states, thanks in part to the support of Arab and Muslim voters in states where they are concentrated, including Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020, but Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton there by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2016. The state is home to overlapping groups of more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 who report ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.
In Philadelphia, which has a large Black Muslim population, activists have joined a national "Abandon Harris" campaign. They helped organize protests during her debate with Trump last week.
Philadelphia CAIR co-chair Rabiul Chowdhury said, "We have options. If Trump pledges to end the war and bring home all hostages, it's game over for Harris." Trump has said the war would never have erupted if he were president. It's unclear how he would end it. Trump is a firm supporter of Israel.
In Georgia, where Biden won in 2020 by 11,779 votes, activists are rallying 12,000 voters to commit to withholding votes from Harris unless the Biden administration acts by Oct. 10 to halt all arms shipments to Israel, demands a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the West Bank, and pledges to uphold a U.S. law that imposes an arms embargo on nations engaged in war crimes.
Thousands have already signed similar pledges in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
U.S. Representative Dan Kildee, a Michigan Democrat, said he worries about the impact the Gaza war will have in November. He said not only Arab Americans and Muslims, but a much broader group of younger voters and others are also upset.
"You can't unring a bell," he said, adding Harris still had "the space and grace" to shift gears, but time was running out.
