Foreign ministers from the G-20 meet in Brazil today, facing a daunting task: navigating international hotspots like the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts, as well as rising global polarization, with limited hope for significant breakthroughs.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are both expected in Rio de Janeiro for the first high-level G-20 meeting of the year – though not China's Wang Yi.
In a world torn by conflicts and divisions, Brazil, which took over the rotating G-20 presidency from India in December, has voiced hopes for what President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva calls "the forum with the greatest capacity to positively influence the international agenda."
But Lula's bid to make the G-20 a space for finding common ground suffered Sunday after the veteran leftist ignited a diplomatic firestorm by accusing Israel of "genocide" and comparing its military campaign in the Gaza Strip to the Holocaust.
The comments drew outrage in Israel, which declared him "persona non grata," and could overshadow any bid to de-escalate the conflict via the G-20.
"If Lula imagined he was going to propose peace resolutions on Israel or Ukraine, that just got swept off the table," international relations specialist Igor Lucena told AFP.
More than four months after the Gaza war was triggered by the Oct. Hamas incursion of Israel, which has killed over 29,000 Palestinians in retaliation, there is little sign of progress toward peace.
A new U.N. Security Council resolution on a cease-fire was vetoed Tuesday by the United States, which said the text would endanger ongoing negotiations, including on the release of Hamas-held hostages.
The outlook is similarly downbeat on Russia's war in Ukraine, which also has G-20 members divided.
Despite a push from Western countries for the group to condemn President Vladimir Putin's invasion, the G-20's last summit, held in New Delhi in September, ended with a watered-down statement that denounced the use of force but did not explicitly name Russia, which maintains friendly ties with fellow members like India and Brazil.
Underlining the G-20 stalemate, the G-7 group of top economies – Ukrainian allies Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States – will hold its own virtual meeting on the war Saturday, the second anniversary of Russia's invasion.
'Putting out fires'
Held at a marina on the Rio waterfront, the G-20 meeting will open with a session on "addressing international tensions."
The ministers will discuss global governance reform on Thursday – a favorite issue for Brazil, which wants a greater voice for the global south at institutions like the U.N., IMF and World Bank.
"The number and gravity of conflicts has returned to the level of the Cold War. That brings new urgency to the issue," said Brazil's top diplomat for G-20 political negotiations, Mauricio Lyrio.
"We need to adapt the international system to prevent new conflicts," he told journalists Tuesday. "Now, we're just putting out fires."
Brazil also wants to use its G-20 presidency to push the fight against poverty and climate change.
There will also be space for bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the gathering – though a Blinken-Lavrov encounter looks unlikely, given the exploding tension over Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny's death in prison Friday.
Blinken and Lavrov last met in person at a G-20 gathering in India in March 2023.
Election-year havoc
Founded in 1999, the Group of 20 brings together most of the world's biggest economies.
Originally an economic forum, it has grown increasingly involved in international politics.
But the prospects for major advances via the group are dim in a year when elections will be held in some 50 countries, including key G-20 members such as the United States and Russia, said Lucena.
"Reaching big agreements will be difficult," he said.
"It's not a favorable environment for resolving conflicts. On the contrary."
A Brazilian government source said that after recent G-20 struggles for consensus, the hosts axed the requirement that every meeting produce a joint statement – except for the annual leaders' summit, scheduled for November in Rio.