Tunisians began voting on Monday on a constitution seen as a referendum on President Kais Saied, whose charter would give his office nearly unchecked powers in a break with the country's post-2011 democratic trend.

Polling stations opened at 6 a.m local time (5 a.m. GMT), and according to the Independent High Authority for Elections, over 9 million people are registered to take part in the referendum.

Since July 25, 2021, Tunisia has been undergoing a severe political crisis, when Saied sacked the government and suspended the parliament.

Tunisian forces consider these measures a "coup against the Constitution," but others see them as a "correction of the course of the 2011 revolution," which overthrew then-President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

For Saied, who started in 2019 a five-year presidential term, considers his measures necessary to "save the country from imminent danger."

But after a year of one-man rule in which he has vastly extended his powers and made little progress on tackling deep economic woes, Saied's personal popularity will be under the spotlight.

All eyes on turnout

"The biggest unknown in this referendum is the turnout and whether it will be low or very low," said analyst Youssef Cherif.

No quorum has been set, nor any provision made for a "no" result, and Saied's constitution for a "new republic" is widely expected to pass.

Saied's rivals, rights groups and international organizations have warned that he risks turning the country back into a dictatorship, more than a decade after the toppling of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali that sparked pro-democracy uprisings across the region.

Opposition parties and civil society groups have called for a boycott, while the powerful UGTT trade union has not taken an official stand on the vote.

Saied's charter would replace the country's 2014 Constitution, a hard-won compromise between conservative-leaning and secular forces reached after three years of political turmoil.

His supporters blame the hybrid parliamentary-presidential system it introduced, and the Ennahdha party, for years of political crises and widespread corruption.

Saied's draft for the constitution was published earlier this month with little reference even to an earlier draft produced by a committee he appointed himself.

The new text would place the head of state in supreme command of the army, give him complete executive control and allow him to appoint a government without the approval of parliament.

He could also present draft laws to parliament, which would be obliged to give them priority.

He would be almost impossible to remove from office before the end of his five-year term in 2024.

Sadeq Belaid, the legal expert who led the drafting committee and was until recently an ally of the president, said Saied's version was "completely different" from that of the committee and could install "a dictatorial regime."

Revolutionary 'correction'

The draft has been heavily promoted in state media, and billboards bearing the Tunisian flag have appeared exhorting people to vote "yes."

"People don't know what they're voting on, or why," Cherif said.

Saied, a 64-year-old law professor, won a landslide victory in the 2019 presidential elections, building on his image as incorruptible and distanced from the political elite.

He has appeared increasingly isolated in recent months, limiting his public comments to official videos from his office – often diatribes against domestic foes he brands as "snakes," "germs" and "traitors."

He has vowed to protect Tunisians' liberties and describes his political project as a "correction" and a return to the path of the revolution.

"Lots of young people, the marginalized and excluded, are on his side," said political analyst Hamadi Redissi.

That popularity will continue to be tested in the coming months as Tunisians face soaring inflation, youth unemployment of 40% and a looming deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that observers have warned could lead to more economic pain.

Cherif said that for now, "the fact that people can express themselves freely or go and vote 'no' without going to prison shows that we're not in a traditional dictatorship."

But, he added, "This constitution could create an authoritarian regime resembling the regimes Tunisia experienced before 2011."