With rivals jailed or barred from running, Tunisian President Kais Saied is on the verge of securing a second term in office with little opposition in Sunday’s election.

A wave of anti-establishment sentiment fueled his rise to power in 2019, but as Saied approaches re-election, his presidency is marked by controversy and widespread concerns over Tunisia’s faltering democracy.

Arab Spring memories

Once hailed as the Arab Spring's sole success story, Tunisia had embraced a new democratic Constitution and garnered international praise for political compromises, even earning its civil society groups a Nobel Peace Prize.

But the country’s economy struggled to find stability, and political infighting, terrorism and violence hampered progress.

Amid this backdrop, Kais Saied, a 61-year-old political outsider, won the 2019 election by promising to transform Tunisia.

Riding on the hopes of youth and local governments, he envisioned a "New Tunisia."

Tunisia's third presidential election since the 2011 uprising that ousted autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali presents a pivotal moment for the nation.

While international observers praised previous elections for meeting democratic norms, the 2023 race has sparked concerns over fairness.

Saied’s regime has taken heavy-handed steps, arresting political opponents, journalists, and civil society figures under charges of threatening state security or violating an anti-fake news law.

Meanwhile, his election authority has excluded many challengers, raising doubts about the legitimacy of the election.

Disillusioned opposition

Most opposition figures have either been jailed or boycotted the election altogether.

The most notable absentee is Rached Ghannouchi, the 83-year-old co-founder of the influential Islamist party Ennahda, who was imprisoned last year.

Abir Moussi, a prominent figure and head of the Free Destourian Party, also finds herself behind bars, reflecting Saied's crackdown on a broad range of political rivals.

Only three candidates remain on the ballot: Saied himself, veteran politician Zouhair Maghzaoui, and businessman Ayachi Zammel.

Maghzaoui, once an ally of Saied, has turned against the president's economic policies but faces his own criticism from opposition parties for backing Saied's 2022 constitutional reforms.

Zammel, meanwhile, has little national recognition and faces a slew of legal troubles over voter fraud accusations.

Economic stranglehold

Beyond the political turmoil, Tunisia’s economic outlook remains bleak.

Unemployment is at 16%, among the highest in the region, and many of the country’s youth struggle to find jobs.

Saied’s promises to rejuvenate the economy have failed to materialize, and Tunisia is still dependent on international lenders like the IMF, World Bank, and EU, owing over $9 billion.

Talks for a $1.9 billion bailout package from the IMF have stalled, as Saied refuses to implement the required reforms – particularly unpopular ones, such as cutting subsidies on essential goods.

Migration crisis

The country’s economic malaise has driven an increasing number of Tunisians to risk their lives in perilous journeys to Europe.

Migration has become a double-edged sword in Tunisia.

While many Tunisians flee, the country also serves as a transit point for sub-Saharan African migrants seeking to reach Europe.

Saied's government has responded with harsh anti-migrant policies, deporting many and dismantling makeshift camps.

Saied further inflamed tensions by accusing migrants of contributing to violence and crime in Tunisia, igniting xenophobic attacks and tightening the country's borders.

The coast of Tunisia remains a graveyard for those seeking a better life, as ships carrying both Tunisians and sub-Saharan Africans often capsize just miles off the coast.

Global balancing act

On the international stage, Saied has adopted a populist tone, emphasizing sovereignty and independence from foreign influence.

He has publicly resisted Europe's pressure to act as a "border guard" for migrants crossing the Mediterranean, despite agreements to cooperate on migration management.

Tunisia has also strengthened ties with Iran and China, securing investment under China’s Belt and Road Initiative for infrastructure projects.

Nevertheless, European countries remain Tunisia's primary trade partners, and the Saied administration continues to engage diplomatically with Europe.

The West closely watches Tunisia's evolving political landscape, but Saied’s rhetoric and actions often walk a fine line between cooperation and defiance.