Sudan, once the largest country in Africa and the Arabic-speaking world, finds itself at yet another crossroads as a brutal power struggle threatens national as well as regional peace and security.

The conflict between the country's military, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the powerful paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), under the command of Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, broke out on April 15, 2023.

Hundreds of people, including civilians, have died in the clashes that triggered a mass exodus of foreign nationals from the country.

The crisis, although seen primarily as a power struggle, is multifaceted and made further complicated due to Sudan’s history of external influence and a growing interest in the region by regional and world powers.

Türkiye-based Sudanese political scientist Mayada Kamal Eldeen told Daily Sabah that the recent conflict stems entirely from political disputes that began in 2019 with the ouster of longtime leader Omar al-Bashir.

Al-Bashir’s removal was followed by a coup, orchestrated by the army and the RSF in 2021 that upended the transition to civilian rule and installed al-Burhan as the de facto leader.

Beyond political dispute

"The situation, however, was aggravated by a lack of understanding between the civilian and military apparatus of the state. Initially, a two-year transition period was announced, which was later extended by two more years. During that period, civilians and the military could not agree on key issues like the elections, parliament, creating a civilian government and appointing a prime minister," Eldeen said.

Another key element of the reform was the proposed integration of the powerful RSF, led by Hamdan Daglo, with Sudan’s national army. The question of integration created further disagreements.

Turkish academic and analyst Serhat Orakçı, however, pointed out that the crisis might run deeper than just a power struggle.

"Economic motivations are also undoubtedly present in the background of this conflict. The RSF has a history of pursuing profit by providing mercenary soldiers to Libya and Yemen, controlling arms and car smuggling, investing in real estate, and most importantly, controlling significant gold mines," Orakçı said.

"With a military force of over 100,000, the RSF acts as an army within an army and a state within a state in Sudan. This massive entity, which was planned to be integrated into the Sudanese army, seeks to take over the country's resources by seizing power on its own, while not wanting to relinquish its gains so far," he added.

Economic, geopolitical factors

Orakçı underlined how Sudan’s natural resources and strategic location in Africa make it geopolitically important, drawing interest from external actors.

"Sudan has strong ties to the Middle East due to its underground resources like oil and gold and its strategic location in Africa. Its location on the Red Sea and its hosting of the Nile River further increase its importance. It is difficult to say that what is happening in Sudan is independent of the economic, political, and geopolitical interests of global and regional actors," he said.

"At the highest level, the U.S., Russia, and China are directing Sudan toward their own axes, while collaborating with regional actors such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, and Ethiopia. When the Omar al-Bashir regime was ousted in 2019, it was known that foreign actors provided financial aid to the Sovereignty Council, dominated by military personnel, and undermined the civilian transitions," Orakçı added.

Eldeen agreed by also pointing out Sudan’s strategic importance in the region as well as its significant natural resources.

"Sudan was one of the largest countries in Africa and the Arab world until South Sudan's separation. It is still the third largest country in Africa and has one of the longest coastlines on the Red Sea."

"Sudan’s ports and military bases have caused competition between the United States and Russia. Turkish officials often refer to Sudan as "our gateway to Africa" and emphasize the importance of the country. It is rich with suitable land for agriculture and plenty of freshwater resources. It is also Africa's third-largest gold producer and gold production has accounted for as much as 40% of the national budget in previous years," she said.

"These factors have brought on a lot of external attention and often interventions for Sudan," added Eldeen.

Risk of division

Sudan experienced a partition in 2011 when it lost territories to South Sudan. Similar tendencies can be observed from time to time in the South Kordofan and Darfur regions, according to Orakçı.

"Although the crisis in the country may not lead to a new division in the short term, it has the potential to deepen Sudan's regional problems in the medium and long term," he said.

"The RSFs, which are currently in conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces, is based on a state-supported paramilitary militia in Darfur. These militias, named Janjaweed, were established to suppress separatist armed formations in Darfur and were later transformed into Border Forces in 2013-14 during the Omar al-Bashir era, and then into the RSF. If this structure, which also has familial ties with Libya and Chad, is dissolved, other security problems may arise in Sudan and neighboring countries," he added.

Regional, global interests

The crisis in Sudan has received extensive coverage in global media, which is a clear indication of the possible ramifications it might have regionally and globally.

Political scientist Eldeen, who is a lecturer at Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa University’s Political Science and International Relations Faculty, blamed regional and international actors, including the U.S., U.K. and Russia as well as regional powers like the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

"These countries have both intervened or exerted pressure on Sudan and its policies. Particularly after the overthrow of al-Bashir in 2019, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been key factors in the country’s political situation," she said.

"The ‘quartet’ countries, which include the United States, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, are dominant countries in Sudanese politics. Volker Perthes, the United Nations' special envoy to Sudan, is also very active in the country's political process and negotiations. However, their activities are often seen as negative interventions, impeding stability in Sudan," Eldeen added.

In addition, Russia, through its powerful mercenary group Wagner has also carved out a space in Sudan. Wagner began its deployments in Sudan during the rule of former President al-Bashir which continued after his fall in partnership with a Russian mining company.

Orakçı, a political analyst specializing in African affairs, also recognized Sudan’s importance, particularly for neighboring Egypt.

"There are deep historical, political, economic, and military-security ties between Egypt and Sudan. Sharing the Nile River also makes this relationship strategic. It is a known fact that Egypt supports the Sudanese army and provides guidance in suppressing civilian groups who advocate for civilian rule. It is also known that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have tapped on RSF mercenaries to support Libya’s Gen. Khalifa Haftar and to fight against the Houthis in Yemen," Orakçı said.

"In recent years, Israel has also been known to establish relationships and cooperation with conflicting parties in Sudan under the guise of normalization," he added.

"Looking at this picture, it is obvious that conflicting parties are in a relationship with the same regional powers and receive financial and weapon support."

As a result, the most significant impact of this conflict, which shows trends of prolongation and deepening, is the undermining of the democratization of the Sudanese government and the construction of a rule based on the will of the people.