It was slightly more than a century ago when the U.K. and France fully supported Turkey's territorial integrity and independence. When Turkey was on its way to make an alliance with Germany through establishing commercial relations and strengthening weapon procurement, the eminent threat was Russia. The whole of Europe was afraid that Russia would erase the Turkish presence in the east and access Syrian shores so that the Straits would become open to the Russian warships. Although the alliances and results of the First World War were different, many historians agree on the existence of that fear.
For Europe and the U.S., things were not really different during the Cold War era. There was the Soviet Union, which ideologically dominated several countries in the Muslim world, including Syria, Egypt and Yemen. Again, Turkey was fulfilling the mission of resisting and pushing Russian influence back to its lands in the north. In return Turkey was awarded vast foreign aid and considered an important fortress for the 'free world.' With the ideological differences and geo-strategic conflicts, Turkish-Russian relations were, yet again, largely shaped by the West.
It was not before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin that Turkey and Russia have attempted to create their own agenda. Since the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power in 2002, the priority in f
oreign policy was to separate trade from politics. In doing so, Turkey, despite several crises with several countries, has never abandoned trade and essayed to increase financial flows day by day. In this regard, Russia posed a great opportunity with its vast lands and huge population. In 2002 the trade budget between Turkey and Russia was around 4.5 billion dollars. Yet, last year it reached to 25 billion dollars. When considered the recent political crises and Russia's harsh stance after Turkey downed one of its jets in 2015 after constant violations of Turkish airspace, the budget seems like a success. Neither Turkey nor Russia are satisfied with this number and Erdoğan says the goal is to increase the budget to 100 billion dollars by 2023.
Putin, who was the first Russian president, stepping in Turkey, has repeatedly stated Turkey's importance in the regional politics. The cooperation among Turkey, Iran and Russia to create a political solution for the civil war in Syria has demonstrated that Russia considers Turkey a strategic actor whereas Turkey believes the Western countries, primarily the U.S., have been only making trouble due to their explicit support for the PKK-linked PYD group in Syria's north. It is uncertain whether Turkey believes in a long-term alliance with Russia since there are many problematic areas besides Syria where Russia is the main backer of the Bashar Assad regime. For instance the occupation of Crimea has been seen as a non-favorable action by Ankara.
In spite of the ongoing tensions and troubles, there is a hope that Turkey and Russia can get along with each other through excluding the third parties. A conference, largely based on commercial relations has shown the willingness of the two sides to improve trade and, more importantly, separate trade and politics. The Future of Turkish-Russian Relations in the Rising Eurasia conference, organized by International Cooperation Platform (ICP) was held in Antalya, the southern city that is home to millions of Russian residents apart from Russian tourists. Sabah daily and A Haber TV channel were the main media sponsors. The one-day-long conference hosted many important visitors from the two countries.
Businessmen long for Turkish-Russian cooperation
Professor Ilham Rahimov, an Azeri businessman and a friend of Putin since their university days, said it was almost impossible that commercial relations be poisoned by any political crises anymore. Rahimov, who was involved in the jet crisis and spoke to the leaders of the two countries to overcome the affair, believes Turkish-Russian relations' future is bright.
'The situations of Turkey and Russia before the West are the same. The West puts pressure on the two countries,' he said, underlining that Turkey and Russia should take the initiative for the relations' future. It was common among the participators that many believe the West is the main conspirator against the two countries and afraid of a strong Turkish-Russian friendship.
Similarly, Russian politician Sergey Nikolayevich Baburin, one of Putin's former foes but now a very strong supporter, said Europe had an impact on the relations and, therefore, the two countries did not trust each other truly. 'There are some countries, who are against improving Turkish-Russian relations, increasing the trade budget and are attempting to bar natural gas transportation. These problems can be overcome through a true friendship,' he said, adding that Turkey would play an important role between Russia and the EU. Alleging that several crises across the world were ignited by 'dark hands,' the same hands, he said, are still active and wish to create troubles between Turkey and Russia.
Eurasia is an identity for both, says Dugin
The political-analyst Alexander Dugin, who is well-known in Turkey due to the claim that he informed the Turkish government immediately before the putsch of July 15, 2016, and visited the Turkish parliament after it was bombed, offered another perspective for the two countries' relations. Mentioning a 'common identity', which he describes as Eurasian, he said both Turkey and Russia, culturally and historically, have the same origin. 'The Turkish-Russian friendship is over ethnicity and religion. They share the same destiny. Russia addresses not only the Slavic world but also the Turkic world. Eurasia does not cover only the Slavic and Orthodox people but also the Turks,' he said. Stating that both Turks and Russians can find their identities in the place where they live, and not in either the West or East, he said the Eurasian identity has to be recognized and adopted.
On the recent developments in the region, he believes there is a re-arrangement in the Middle East and Mediterranean. Additionally, the West is also at the brink of a change along with international relations. Therefore, these profound changes affect the two countries and their relations.He claims that Putin, Erdoğan and the U.S. President Donald Trump were in favor of a multipolar world whereas the 'deep state' in the U.S. still supports a unipolar world system. This was the main reason behind the challenges and disputes. Touching on the wars in the history between the Turks and Russians, he said 'We need to learn lessons from history. As a result of the wars between us, the West has gained the most advantageous position. We should leave the inner fight among the Eurasian countries and create an alliance, based on the Eurasian identity.'
Underlining the importance of traditional Islam in Turkey, which, according to him, was highly decorated with Sufi elements, he said 'We need a reliable, powerful Islamic society. In the case of Sunni Islam, Turkey can fit this role in order to overcome many troubles, including security problems.' On Syria, he said Kurdish people were used by the West and as long as the Kurdish groups remain puppets of the U.S., Russia would remain silent on Turkey's military operations. Finding a solution in Syria, could only occur on the condition that the U.S. leave the country.
Professor İlter Turan, head of the International Political Science Association, appreciated the positive statements by the Russians, yet underlined the fact that, in contrast to Turkey's stance, Russia was not separating trade from politics. In case of any political crises, Russia was implementing partial economic sanctions as a result of which the improvements would be lost suddenly.
