Marine scientists and climate experts are sounding the alarm as seawater temperatures in the Mediterranean hit unprecedented levels, raising concerns about the potential emergence of severe weather events akin to hurricanes in oceanic regions.
Professor Barış Salihoğlu, director of the Middle East Technical University (METU) Marine Sciences Institute, emphasized the Mediterranean's vulnerability as the region most impacted by climate change. Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA), Salihoğlu underscored the significant rise in surface water temperatures, particularly in the Gulf of Mersin and Iskenderun, where a staggering increase of over 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) has been observed in the past four decades.
"This marks a substantial temperature surge for our country's seas. The Mediterranean, on average, has experienced a temperature increase of 1 degree, with similar increments of 1.5 degrees observed off the coast of Antalya," explained Salihoğlu.
Highlighting record-breaking figures measured in January, Salihoğlu expressed concern over the escalating sea surface temperatures. He revealed that the average temperature in January for the gulfs of Iskenderun, Mersin and Antalya, which typically register at 19 degrees Celsius, surged to 20 degrees this year. These readings marked the hottest January sea surface temperatures ever recorded for these gulfs.
"In Mersin Bay, the average November temperature, which was historically 23 degrees, soared to 25 degrees last year. Similarly, Antalya, with an expected average of 22 degrees in November, witnessed an unprecedented 24.5 degrees, setting a new record for the month," added Salihoğlu.
The concerning trend in rising sea temperatures raises apprehensions about the potential consequences for the Mediterranean region, including the likelihood of severe weather events comparable to hurricanes in other parts of the world. As climate change continues to exert its influence, scientists emphasize the urgency of addressing environmental challenges to mitigate potential risks and safeguard the delicate balance of marine ecosystems.
Discussing the impact of increasing salinity on the ocean's surface and its subsequent descent to the depths, Salihoğlu elaborated on the intricate dynamics at play: "As water condenses due to rising salinity on the surface, it descends, influencing the deep-sea environment. The deep sea typically maintains a delicate equilibrium, and even minor temperature shifts can have widespread ramifications. What's even more alarming is that the Mediterranean, akin to major global current systems, operates in cycles. These cycles, subject to alteration with escalating temperatures, may pose a heightened risk to the ecosystem. The potential consequences involve alterations in the habitats of various species as temperatures rise."
Addressing the impact of climate change on ocean acidification, Salihoğlu noted that it prompts structural changes or demise in species, particularly those rich in calcium. Moreover, he highlighted the transformative effects on the migration and breeding patterns of fish.
"We currently lack a definitive solution to the physical repercussions of climate change on the seas. Temperatures are on the rise, leading to ocean acidification. In the most optimistic scenario, even if we manage to cap temperature increases at 1.5-2 degrees, the upward trend is likely to persist. Strengthening the marine ecosystem is imperative in such circumstances. The key lies in alleviating other stressors such as pollution, overfishing and excessive construction, while concurrently enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. A crucial strategy is expanding protected areas, emphasizing not only the need to 'preserve what exists' but also to 'enhance the well-being of existing populations' given the current precarious state," added Salihoğlu.
Şükrü Turan Beşiktepe, head of the Department of Marine Sciences at Dokuz Eylül University Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology, underscored the crucial role of seas and oceans in Earth's climate system, emphasizing their capacity for climate regulation. Beşiktepe highlighted that seas absorb approximately 90% of the heat generated by human activities, redistributing it through currents. He noted that while some heat is released back into the atmosphere, the remainder is carried to the deep sea, a vital process for maintaining climate balance.
Expressing concern over imbalances that have adversely affected the seas, Beşiktepe pointed out that the atmospheric temperature is 1.1 degrees higher than the preindustrial period, with the Mediterranean experiencing a higher increase of 1.5 degrees. He projected a continuation of this trend, potentially reaching 2.2 degrees by 2040. Beşiktepe highlighted regional disparities, indicating warming of 0.35 degrees in the Western Mediterranean over the last decade, 0.5 degrees in the Eastern Mediterranean and 0.25 degrees in the Atlantic Ocean.
Beşiktepe drew attention to the Mediterranean's divergence from the global pattern, predicting a reduction in winter precipitation in the region despite increased evaporation. Dividing the Mediterranean into the west and east, he explained that extreme weather events and hurricanes, similar to those in the ocean, are becoming more frequent in the Western Mediterranean. With rising seawater temperatures, he anticipated stronger hurricanes, emphasizing the potential emergence of hurricanes with speeds of 150-160 kph (93-99 mph), already observed in the Western Mediterranean.
The expert warned of repercussions on fish spawning seasons and stocks, as well as deteriorating water quality on coasts, coral reefs and sea meadows. Beşiktepe noted the tropicalization process in the Eastern Mediterranean, leading to the extinction of cold water coral reefs unique to the region within the next 15-20 years.
Urging the need to revamp coastal structures and infrastructures to mitigate storm and sea flood impacts, Beşiktepe emphasized the importance of improving forecasting mechanisms against weather events. He underscored the necessity of adapting living conditions to coexist with nature in the face of ongoing global warming challenges.
