According to a projection study on the climate scenario awaiting Türkiye, the Turkish Mediterranean basin will experience a temperature increase to a greater extent than the rest of the world, and the country's eastern and southeastern regions will suffer from extreme overheating by the end of the century.
Nazan An and Tufan Turp from Boğaziçi University's Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies conducted an analysis of temperature rise and precipitation changes based on climate change scenarios, portraying a rather pessimistic outlook for Türkiye by the end of the century.
The study underscored that the temperature rise in the Mediterranean basin, including Türkiye, will surpass the global increase, and the forecasts for the basin indicate significant reductions in rainfall by the end of the century.
Sharing the predicted temperature increase and precipitation changes using climate models, the study forewarned of an exacerbation of drought toward the end of the century, which in turn is expected to amplify water stress, potentially triggering social tensions, conflicts and migrations.
According to An and Turp's research, the anticipated rise in global temperatures will be most acutely felt in the southeastern Anatolia and eastern Anatolia regions of the country. The Marmara region, due to its high population density, will also bear a disproportionately heavier socio-economic burden from climate change impacts.
The study suggested that the situation will significantly deteriorate in the last quarter of the century. In the distant future, between 2074 and 2099, a reduction in precipitation across all of Türkiye and a remarkable increase in average temperatures are expected.
In addition to the overall decreasing trend in precipitation, there will also be an increase in the intensity, frequency and geographic scope of extreme rainfall events in various regions, particularly in the eastern Black Sea and southwest Marmara regions, which can lead to flash floods and epidemics. The most adverse changes in Türkiye are projected to occur in the Mediterranean, eastern Anatolia and southeastern Anatolia regions.
