A recent study conducted by researchers exploring the impact of climate change on extreme weather events in Europe and Türkiye predicted that for every 1-degree global temperature increase, the Mediterranean region would warm up by at least 1.5 degrees.

The study titled "Assessing the Scalability of Projected Changes in Extreme Weather Events in Europe using Regional Climate Models" supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBITAK), examines changes in extreme temperatures over a 120-year period in relation to global temperature increases.

According to Tuğba Öztürk, the head of the Physics Department at Işık University, the research indicates that the Mediterranean basin experiences warming at a rate of 1.5 times the global average for hot extremes.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA) Öztürk emphasized that uncommon or less frequently occurring weather events are categorized as extreme weather events.

She noted that through the first year of the study, they examined the daily minimum and maximum temperatures and their annual maximum and minimum values.

"In the Mediterranean basin, we are facing a warming of 1.5 times the global warming in terms of hot extremes. According to the model results, for every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming, extreme temperatures in the Mediterranean region will increase by at least 1.5 degrees on average. For every 2 degrees Celsius, the increase will be 3 degrees, and for every 3 degrees Celsius, it will be 4.5 degrees," Öztürk explained.

"When looking at cold extremes, particularly in Eastern and Northern Europe, this ratio increases to 3. In other words, for every 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperature, there will be a threefold increase in temperature in North and Eastern Europe. If it warms by 1 degree globally, it will be 3 degrees in these parts of Europe; if it warms by 2 degrees, it will be 6 degrees. By the end of the century, in a world that is 3 degrees warmer, we will experience an additional 6 degrees of cold extremes," she added.

Öztürk pointed out that the greater increase in temperatures in Northeast Europe is attributed to the decrease in snow and ice cover. "With less snow and ice cover, warming occurs even more. Snow reflects the sunlight, thus creating a cooling effect. However, when the snow cover is reduced, we observe even greater warming," she noted.

The study also highlights that night temperatures increase more than the global average, negatively affecting human comfort.

Öztürk emphasized that they examined the changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Basin and Europe using regional climate model projections.

Elaborating on the details of the climate modeling, Öztürk explained they observe the changes in essential parameters such as temperature, precipitation, wind and soil moisture over time by dividing the world into a three-dimensional grid system via a computer program.

"These computer programs naturally contain physical equations because atmospheric circulation, for example, follows the laws of physics. We know how much energy comes from the sun. As input to the model, we provide this information, along with topographic data such as mountains, seas, grasslands and forests. Additionally, we provide information on future greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. In other words, we input data on human behavior," she noted.

Öztürk mentioned that their research also includes studies on how climate change will affect certain sectors. They aim to produce insights into the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, food security and even health.

Adapting to the new climate

Öztürk emphasized the need to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to mitigate the effects of global warming.

In addition, she underlined both the wind and solar potential Türkiye is carrying, particularly in areas of Biga Peninsula and Çanakkale, opining that, "We can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by investing more in renewable energy sources."

"I believe we already have a renewable energy usage rate of up to 50% in our country. This needs to increase further, and alongside that, adaptation to this new climate is also important. We need to take measures to know how extreme weather events, extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall, droughts, and so on will change. We need to be prepared for this," Öztürk urged.

Particularly, in the aftermath of the recent forest fires across Türkiye, research on extreme weather events, including heat waves, intense rainfall and resulting floods, sheds light on future challenges.