Recent research conducted in the eastern Black Sea region has unveiled a concerning trend of increasing evaporation casting a shadow over vital agriculture production. As temperatures continue to rise, the phenomenon has set off alarms about the sustainability of farming practices in the area.
In light of diminishing precipitation, experts predict a grim outlook where evaporation is anticipated to outpace the amount of rainfall in the region in the forthcoming years. Professor Mikdat Kadıoğlu, the head of Istanbul Technical University's (ITU) Meteorological Engineering Department and director of the Disaster Management Institute and Climate Change Application and Research Center, emphasized: "The Black Sea is positioned among the regions most susceptible to the repercussions of climate change. By 2040, evaporation is projected to surpass precipitation."
The agricultural backbone of the Black Sea region, including crops like tea, hazelnuts and corn, finds itself in jeopardy as the escalating demand for irrigation necessitates countermeasures against impending water scarcity. In response, scientists are urging the construction of freshwater reservoirs to mitigate water losses and preempt drought.
Kadıoğlu advocates for the prohibition of cultivating water-intensive tropical plants as a strategic maneuver against climate change impacts. He stated: "Agriculture is confronting a formidable challenge. Our country does not possess abundant water resources; we even grapple with a semi-arid climate. This is why the cultivation of tropical plants demanding copious water should be banned. Tropical plants require tropical precipitation, and our climate is far from tropical. Despite the heat, we do not conform to tropical conditions. Unlike tropical climates characterized by daily rainfall, such patterns are absent here."
Pointing to the consequences of climate shifts on the Black Sea, Kadıoğlu underlined: "Our examination of climate change effects in the Black Sea region determines evaporation is surging ahead of precipitation, particularly noticeable in the month of July. This unprecedented phenomenon is projected to manifest around 2040. July coincides with the period when corn in the Black Sea region undergoes the crucial process of maturation. Moreover, water scarcity looms as an additional concern in the Black Sea basin. The region's rivers, characterized by their brevity and steepness, rush precipitously into the sea during rains. To counteract this, it's conceivable that freshwater reservoirs might need to be strategically positioned on the mouths of rivers."
Kadıoğlu underscored the necessity for augmented irrigation due to heightened evaporation rates impacting water requirements for agricultural yields. "Throughout the year, the Black Sea experiences higher precipitation than evaporation. Consequently, the demand for irrigation remains modest. However, as temperatures rise and precipitation increases somewhat, the acceleration in evaporation could potentially outstrip precipitation by 2040, particularly evident during July. This projected scenario implies that irrigation will be indispensable for crops facing water deficits. In this regard, echoes of concern parallel the situation in Egypt," he remarked.
