Professor Levent Kurnaz, director of Boğaziçi University Climate Change and Policies Application and Research Center, forecasts unprecedented spring temperatures for the upcoming months, extending into March, April and May. Kurnaz attributes this trend to the lingering impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which has significantly influenced global climate patterns.
Highlighting the remarkable heat waves experienced in recent years, Kurnaz emphasized that 2023 emerged as the hottest year on record, with the trend continuing into the winter months of 2024. Last winter, global temperatures surpassed historical averages, registering at 13.24 degrees Celsius (55.83 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to the 11.9 degree Celsius average between 1941 and 1980.
In an interview with Anadolu Agency (AA), Kurnaz underscored the correlation between prevailing climate conditions and El Nino and La Nina events, noting their substantial influence on the Pacific Ocean's temperature dynamics. El Nino-induced warming of Pacific waters elevates global temperatures, contributing to the prolonged heat waves observed worldwide.
Elaborating on the implications of climate change, Kurnaz outlined how rising temperatures exacerbate during El Nino years and moderate during La Nina phases. With the onset of the El Nino period in June last year, a persistent warming trend has been observed, culminating in consecutive months of record-breaking temperatures.
Kurnaz anticipates that the El Nino effect will gradually subside by the end of May, resulting in a slight decrease in temperatures. While the upcoming summer is expected to be cooler compared to the scorching temperatures witnessed in 2023, Kurnaz assures that extreme heat records are less likely to recur.
Underlining that the main factor in warming is climate change, Kurnaz said: "Climate change is already warming the world. There is a curve that goes upwards regularly. Temperatures fluctuate on this curve, sometimes a little higher, sometimes a little lower. Six years from now will be La Nina.
"The temperatures could be as high as this year's El Nino temperatures."
Stating that there was no serious winter drought in Türkiye in January and February and that the situation was similar worldwide, Kurnaz said, "Every 1-degree increase in temperatures increases the amount of precipitation by 7%."
Defining winter drought as the amount of precipitation falling below seasonal norms, Kurnaz shared the following views: "December and January witnessed considerable rainfall in Türkiye. However, February and March have been unexpectedly dry, a phenomenon we have not previously experienced. Looking ahead, as El Nino diminishes and La Nina takes its place by the end of this summer, it appears that September, October and November could see reduced rainfall. While we should anticipate less rain in the coming autumn and winter, it's important to note that this does not necessarily indicate drought."
Highlighting the crucial role of March and April rainfall in agriculture, Kurnaz cautioned that insufficient rainfall was observed across Türkiye in February. He warned that if this trend persists through March and extends into April, it could lead to significant challenges in the agricultural sector. Kurnaz emphasized, "While we did not face winter drought, the onset of spring drought could significantly impact agriculture."
Kurnaz noted that the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius has been surpassed in the past 12 months. However, he emphasized that it is premature to conclude that this target has been permanently exceeded.
"When we observe warming trends, it indicates that the 1.5-degree target has been surpassed. Currently, the temperature over the last 12 months has exceeded 1.5 degrees. If temperatures in June or July slightly decrease, the average may drop to 1.48 degrees. Therefore, surpassing the 1.5-degree target is not an immediate event; rather, it may occur in the next three to five years, with each month's average temperature reaching 1.5 degrees before we can definitively state it has been 'permanently exceeded.' We still have a few years before reaching that conclusion," he explained.
As the global community grapples with the repercussions of climate change, Kurnaz's insights underscore the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of rising temperatures and foster sustainable environmental practices.
