In a recent study conducted by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international collaboration of researchers from England, the Netherlands, the United States, Germany and Switzerland, alarming findings have emerged regarding the impacts of climate change in the Black Sea region. The study focused on the aftermath of Storm Bettina, which struck the region last November, doubling the probability of heavy rain and snowfall.
The WWA researchers examined climate conditions in Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Türkiye and Georgia, comparing the current climate under the influence of global warming with the preindustrial period. The study particularly highlighted the three-day average precipitation and maximum wind speed in the affected areas.
Storm Bettina, attributed to climate change resulting from human activities, made landfall in Eastern Europe on November 28. The storm brought heavy snowfall to Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine, while causing heavy rainfall in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and most of Türkiye.
The Black Sea experienced hurricane-force winds reaching 120 kph (74.57 mph), leading to significant consequences. Tragically, at least 23 people lost their lives during the storm, with Ukraine being the hardest-hit country. Power outages affected over 2.5 million people, infrastructures were damaged and transportation disruptions occurred.
Attribution analysis conducted by researchers revealed that Storm Bettina, intensified by climate change, doubled the likelihood of heavy rain and snowfall.
Climate change has made precipitation approximately 5% more intense, resulting in more rain than snow.
Moreover, researchers pointed out that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War played a role in exacerbating the storm's effects. Displaced Ukrainians faced additional challenges, particularly vulnerable groups such as the elderly, children and disabled individuals who were most susceptible to freezing temperatures and had limited opportunities for evacuation.
As the Black Sea region grapples with the repercussions of Storm Bettina, early flowering of tree and plant species in Türkiye due to unseasonably warm temperatures further compounds the challenges, posing threats to agriculture productivity and biodiversity. The confluence of these climate-related events underscores the urgent need for global efforts to address and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Mariam Zachariah, a research assistant at the Department of Climate Change and Environment at Imperial College London Grantham Institute, highlighted the research findings indicating a rise in the frequency of heavy rain and snowstorms around the Black Sea due to climate change. Zachariah noted that the outcomes align with similar analyses conducted on the subject.
Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at the same department, drew attention to the potential convergence of climate change and conflict, leading to severe consequences. She pointed out that recent World Weather Surveys focusing on extreme weather events in the Horn of Africa, West Asia and Libya revealed that war significantly hampers people's capacity to respond to disasters. Otto highlighted the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and the damage to civilian energy infrastructure during the winter months, resulting in profound and lasting impacts on vulnerable populations. She emphasized that unless global reliance on fossil fuels is curtailed, the escalation of extreme weather conditions will persist, rendering the world more unstable and dangerous.
Julie Arrighi, the director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, stressed that climate change persists even during periods of conflict, posing challenges to countries' disaster response capabilities in the face of severe storms. Arrighi underscored that the impairment of critical systems and infrastructure amplifies the vulnerability of individuals affected by conflicts.