On Wednesday, Türkiye will mark the 23rd anniversary of one of the worst earthquakes in recent memory. On Aug. 17, 1999, more than 17,000 people were killed when a magnitude 7.4 earthquake hit the country's northwestern provinces. The country has come a long way since the disaster, which forced it to overhaul its measures against the fallout of earthquakes. However, the danger is not over yet, especially for Istanbul, which was partially affected by the 1999 earthquake, experts say, pointing to the potential for an earthquake of similar magnitude in the near future in the Marmara region.

A 45-second earthquake rocked Kocaeli, Yalova, Sakarya, Istanbul, Düzce and nearby provinces in 1999. The epicenter was Kocaeli’s Gölcük district but the earthquake left a trail of destruction behind, razing thousands of buildings to the ground in the western Black Sea region, as well as provinces near the Marmara Sea.

It took years for the state to heal the wounds of thousands of people by rebuilding towns, while the government ensured measures would be in place in a future disaster – unlike the 1999 earthquake when the state was criticized for its slow response. Disaster response agencies were centralized and improved while an ambitious "urban transformation" campaign is still underway, allowing people to replace their residences or shops unable to endure a future disaster with new, sturdy ones with assistance from the government.

Türkiye also introduced mandatory insurance called DASK, named after an acronym for the Natural Disaster Insurance Agency, for the public to cover their losses from damaged or demolished buildings. Though DASK is more prevalent today, some 9.2 million residences across the country still do not have DASK insurance, and in Istanbul, one of the riskiest places, some 1.6 million residences do not have it. In other words, more than half of residences have insurance, though experts say it is still insufficient. The Marmara region has the highest number of buildings with insurance, while Hakkari in the southeast has the lowest insurance rate. Since its conception in 2000, DASK has paid more than TL 1.2 billion to people whose residences were damaged in disasters.

Sinan Türkkan, head of the Association of Reinforcement Against Earthquake (DEGÜDER), says Türkiye still needs to cover more ground in reinforcing buildings under risk or transforming them. Speaking about Istanbul, Türkkan told Anadolu Agency (AA) on Tuesday that a severe earthquake in the city might inflict damage "amounting to $150 billion."

"Some 40% of the residences in Istanbul still do not have insurance. We strongly recommend people reinforce their buildings and obtain DASK. About 600,000 buildings in Istanbul will be damaged or completely demolished in a severe earthquake," he said.

Some residents, however, say they are "forced" to stay in damaged buildings due to high rents for new, sturdy buildings. Mustafa Şen, who resides in a 35-year-old house in Istanbul’s Sultangazi district, says he lived through the 1999 earthquake where he was forced to stay in a truck for days. "But in the end, we had to return our home. This is an old building and risky but it is mine. I cannot afford to pay rent. Of course, I am scared of earthquakes but I can only leave here if I can afford it," he told Demirören News Agency (DHA) on Tuesday. Yeşim Güler, who lives in another old building in the city’s Bahçelievler district, says their building "shakes" even when a truck passes by.

Along with buildings not susceptible to earthquake fallout, finding an empty area in a city of more than 15 million people for people to safely stay is another challenge. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu says they increased the number of "gathering areas" where survivors are diverted in case of an earthquake to 5,633. "They cover the need of more than 75% of Istanbul's population," Soylu said at a symposium on earthquakes in Istanbul on Tuesday. He said overall, Türkiye had 28,474 gathering areas and some 56% of the areas had phone access, electricity, water supplies and infrastructure. "In Istanbul, accommodation potential in the aftermath of a disaster is more than 1.3 million. We are able to set up tents or prefabricated units in 140 different locations across the city and they can accommodate 997,000 people," the minister said.

The minister said that Türkiye learned a great lesson from the 1999 earthquake and that the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) of the Interior Ministry (which also co-organized the symposium) has transformed into a prestigious institution. He cited the establishment of dozens of disaster management centers set up across Türkiye and the 6,000 personnel the AFAD employs, along with dozens of warehouses where supplies to fulfill immediate needs in the aftermath of a disaster are stored.

The situation for Istanbul is still grim, according to the city's Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu. Addressing an event on earthquake preparedness in the city on Monday, Imamoğlu said Istanbul had nearly 500,000 "medium-damaged" buildings and about 90,000 heavily damaged buildings in need of demolition. He said they were focused for now on the immediate demolition of 318 buildings in western Istanbul that would not withstand an earthquake. The mayor said the earthquake risk for Istanbul was "far higher" than the official estimates. He also criticized residents who did not consent to tests of their buildings for endurance against a possible earthquake. "Our crews visited 102,000 buildings but only 29,000 were tested. People do not even want to know whether their buildings can endure an earthquake," he said.

Fear of big one

Sturdy buildings or not, an earthquake will strike Istanbul again, professor Naci Görür, an earthquake expert, says. "It is a scientific fact that the possibility of a major earthquake in the Marmara region, within 30 years after 1999, is 64%," he told DHA. "We are in the last stage now. Once a fault line crossing below the Marmara Sea breaks, it will generate an earthquake at a minimum magnitude of 7.2," he said. Görür says coastal areas on Istanbul's European side would be hit most by the earthquake. "Scientists have warned about the 1999 earthquake, predicting an earthquake of that magnitude could happen sooner. But nothing's done. Now, we are warning about an earthquake in Istanbul," he said. Görür said Istanbul should be fully prepared for such an earthquake. "The places that need immediate preparedness include Büyükçekmece and Küçükçekmece. The European side has more unstable ground compared to the Asian side. The area stretching from the Golden Horn to Silivri will sustain significant damage," he said. He said a 7.2 magnitude earthquake will inflict heavy losses, including "around 320,000 deaths," based on the number of households in risky areas.

The country's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority recorded more than 33,000 earthquakes in 2020 alone, including 322 of magnitude 4.0 and higher. In the first seven months of 2022, a total of 10,705 earthquakes were reported in the country. The deadliest quakes in recent memory were both in 2020, one in the eastern province of Elazığ and another in the western province of Izmir.

Most of Türkiye is located on the Anatolian tectonic plate, which sits between two major plates, the Eurasian and African, and a minor one, the Arabian. As the larger African and Arabian plates shift, Türkiye is being literally squeezed, while the Eurasian plate impedes any northward movement. Thus, Türkiye sits on several fault lines. The most potentially devastating fault line in the country is the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), where the Anatolian and Eurasian plates meet. It runs from just south of Istanbul all the way to northeastern Türkiye. The NAF has produced devastating earthquakes throughout history. At the same time, the East Anatolian Fault stretches some 650 kilometers (around 400 miles) from eastern Türkiye's highlands to the Mediterranean, from where it turns southward and meets the northern end of the Great Rift system separating the African and Arabian plates. The strike-slip fault was formed millions of years ago as the Anatolian plate was being pushed northwestwards by the Arabian plate. Meanwhile, western Türkiye is also affected by another minor tectonic plate, the Aegean Sea Plate. An unfortunate tectonic location and a traumatizing history of deadly earthquakes have made the fear of tremors evident in everyday life as Turks are taught how to behave during earthquakes from a young age and many take certain precautions in case a quake suddenly strikes, such as preparing an emergency bag and establishing safety zones at home or work.