Türkiye is experiencing severe drought, as numerous reservoirs around Istanbul, the country’s most populous city, have reached their lowest water storage levels. The whole city's survival can be threatened if conditions persist.
Climate change is one of the most important pressing issues affecting the entire world. This is especially true for Türkiye due to its location. The Mediterranean Basin, where Türkiye is located, is becoming drier due to the effects of anthropogenic climate change. As a result, average temperatures are slowly creeping up and rainfall is becoming scarcer, exacerbating the situation.
Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory Meteorology Laboratory head Adil Tek said, "In January, precipitation will remain below average across the country, particularly in February and March in the Marmara, Aegean and Western Black Sea regions."
Boğaziçi University Climate Change and Policies Application and Research Center Director professor Levent Kurnaz said: "Now, in January, there should be a warning about water usage. People have to get used to it. Dams are running low and it's an alarming situation."
The precipitation will be below average in the next three months, the experts recommended that citizens be warned about the proper and careful use of water.
Tek, who shared his predictions for the upcoming period after the dry autumn season and December, said that the forthcoming months will also be dry. Precipitation in the western regions is likely to be below average in February and March, while the Aegean region will remain drier than other regions.
"The number of hot days is slightly higher than the cold days. February will be hotter this year than last year. The days of cold, and heavy snowfall may not last long. The same is true for March, when temperatures will be above average until summer. Temperatures will usually be above average in April and May as well," Tek said. "With April onwards, precipitation will be above average in Marmara, Aegean, the Mediterranean, Central Anatolia, western and central Black Sea, southern parts of eastern Anatolia and southeastern Anatolia. In June, precipitation will be above average in long-term forecasts. It seems risks of flooding and precipitation overflows will be very high in April," he assessed.
He outlined that the probability of snow is low due to extensive warm days, and snowfall will only last for a day or two. "Last winter, Istanbul saw snowfall for just one day and nothing the next day. Such transitions may occur and problems may arise," said Tek.
Referring to the evaluation report of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) held in Glasgow, Tek said: "When we look at the processes estimated in the report and the maps of the report, what is happening today is following that pattern. Starting from the Atlantic, from the western end of the Mediterranean corridor to the Eastern Mediterranean edge, including our country, there is a decrease in precipitation along the corridor, a change in weather phenomenons with sudden short-term rains, a decrease in soil moisture and an increase in temperatures. The average long-term climate forecasts are exactly the same as what is happening now."
Noting that there will be a lack of precipitation for a one-week period in the short term forecast for Türkiye, Tek said: "There will be precipitation in the form of rain in the Marmara region on Jan. 11, and it may snow at the heights of the western Black Sea region. There is no precipitation in other regions, and only partly cloudy weather conditions will be witnessed."
Kurnaz said, "We will have to start to adapt to live in a less rainy area. That's why we have to get used to it. This will become completely normal for us in the coming years. Knowing that we have to live with less water, we have to adjust all our operations accordingly," he emphasized.
"In our daily lives, we usually make warnings about water usage in July-August. Now, in January, 'We must keep our water usage balanced' warnings should be issued everywhere, people have to get used to it. The dams are witnessing a decrease in levels owing to drought-like conditions, especially in Istanbul," remarked Kurnaz.
