A tsunami is a rare occurrence for Turkey, a country accustomed to major earthquakes. But the risk is here, experts warn and quite natural for a land-locked country surrounded by seas. Waves as high as 3 meters (9 feet) are anticipated in case of a tsunami, associate professor Doğan Kalafat said. Kalafat heads an earthquake-tsunami monitoring center at Boğaziçi University's Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, a leading research body in the earthquake-prone country.
The tsunami phenomenon first found widespread awareness in Turkey after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and subsequent tsunami and 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan. As these two disasters demonstrated, tsunamis appear to be more common in oceans but this is not the case all the time, as Turkey itself witnessed in 2020 in the Aegean Turkish province of Izmir. The disaster, the deadliest in recent memory for the province and Turkey, had triggered a tsunami off the coast of Seferihisar district, its epicenter. Though Seferihisar was spared of fatalities, a small tsunami washed away the town, forcing people to flee in panic and tearing apart anything near the coast.
A tsunami monitoring center was established following the Indian Ocean earthquake and some five years after a major earthquake hit northwestern Turkey, including parts of Istanbul where the center is located. Istanbul is still prone to risks similar to the 1999 earthquake that killed hundreds in Avcılar, a district on its European side, sandwiched between the Marmara Sea and Lake Küçükçekmece. Some 20 kilometers (12 miles) away from the district, a tsunami early warning and monitoring station was established last year in Büyükçekmece, a district where a tsunami is likely in the future.
Kalafat said their current work concentrates on the Eastern Mediterranean as they observe seismic stations and underwater stations there measuring water levels. He added that the Aegean and Mediterranean regions of Turkey are at higher risk. "The southwestern coast, from (the Greek island of) Crete to Muğla (province), Gökova, Fethiye and Antalya coasts are exposed to the risk of 3-meter tsunamis.
"What we have in the Mediterranean region is the Crete arc, an area where a tectonic plate from Africa merges with the Aegean-Anatolian plate. Major earthquakes occur at the edges of such plates. Crete and (other Greek) islands have suffered from tsunamis in the past," he told Anadolu Agency (AA) on Sunday. In Marmara, experts anticipate a big tsunami after an earthquake at a magnitude of 7.0 or higher. The likelihood of such a major earthquake is high, within the next decades. Kalafat said the water level at the sea may increase 2 meters and even this would be "sufficient to inflict damage," he warned.
He added that Turkey had warning systems that can issue alerts up to seven minutes before a tsunami. "This is an important time span that can help people to evacuate to safe areas," he said. Though he urges caution, he notes that a tsunami in Turkey would not be as devastating as those in oceans.
"But people should know that in case of a magnitude 6.0 earthquake or above and with an epicenter below the sea, a tsunami risk exists. So, they should heed warnings and head to higher ground," he underlined.