Russian chess grandmaster and former world champion Garry Kasparov postulates that the recent drone assault on the Kremlin was not orchestrated as a "false flag" operation by Russian intelligence agencies.
Speaking to Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa), Kasparov, a trenchant critic of the Kremlin, said he had "no problem imagining the KGB creating fake events" to provoke popular anger but that the Kremlin was the wrong target. He was referring to the Soviet-era intelligence services, the predecessor of Russia's FSB.
It was more likely that "the Ukrainians are sending a message that you have a military parade on May 9. Be aware that we can actually reach out and it will be all open. So this is on Red Square, and I think it definitely will make many Russian officials, especially military officials, very nervous," Kasparov said.
May 9 is the day that Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Kasparov said he had no inside information but could only analyze what has been reported.
Interviewed in Gmund south of Munich where he received a media freedom award, Kasparov said he could not understand why the West made the delivery of arms to Ukraine conditional upon not using them to attack Russian territory.
"If it's a war, it's a war. And if Ukraine is being hit by Russian missiles from neighboring regions, I think they are entitled to fight back," he said, adding that the Ukrainians were attempting to avoid civilian casualties, in contrast to the Russians.
Kasparov predicted that Ukraine would ultimately be provided with Western combat jets, following the drawn-out decision to provide main battle tanks. "I think the planes will also arrive, but it's painfully slow, and I understand why the Ukrainians are so concerned," he said.
The United States was worried about the effects of a Ukrainian victory on Russia, he said. "I think the potential collapse of Russia now creates some sort of panic in Washington because they don't know what comes next and whether China could benefit from that, and Islamic radicals could benefit."
Kasparov predicted that defeat would have "dramatic consequences" for Russia. "Because we know from Russian history that while war is being conducted successfully, people can bear the consequences and accept sacrifices. The loss of war always led to revolt and revolutions," he said.
He also noted that Russia was in terrible shape economically and demographically and predicted that an explosion could occur. "Question is, what will be the outcome of this explosion? And that depends very much on our readiness to come up with a plan," he said.
The country would need a transition period before elections could be held, and a debate on the shape of the country. "I will see my role as one of the players on this team that will help Russia to go back on her feet. Definitely one of the biggest challenges will be to get back the seat among the family of civilized nations ... and I think my reputation will be a very important element of this national recovery," Kasparov said.
One of the conditions is for a tribunal to try Putin and his associates. "If you let these people go, I think it's wrong because we have been witnessing genocide online and I think that should be an international tribunal, but also in Russia," he said.
Kasparov dismissed Putin's implied threat of the use of nuclear weapons, describing it as "irrelevant."
It had to be contemplated at the beginning of the invasion, "because Putin wanted to use it as blackmail, but it seems to me that after hearing strong warnings from Biden and the Chinese, I think it's just no longer there," he said.
The threat had disappeared from Russian propaganda, Kasparov said. "They talk about attacking Kyiv, but not with nukes. And the fact is that the nukes have disappeared from Russian propaganda narratives just tells you that it's no longer an option."