Infantino considers algorithmic approach for $10B transfer fees
Gianni Infantino prior to the AFCON group stage match between Ivory Coast and Guinea-Bissau, Abidjan, Ivory Coast, Jan. 13, 2024. (Getty Images Photo)


FIFA aims to initiate discussions on adopting algorithms to determine football transfer fees, departing from the traditional method of clubs negotiating market values for contracted players.

President Gianni Infantino proposed this idea at the annual law conference in Tokyo, emphasizing the need for dialogue on crucial topics in the ever-growing 9.2 billion euro ($10 billion) global transfer market.

"Now, more than ever, it is essential for us to address these issues," Infantino urged football lawyers.

"For example, to discuss the possibility of using an algorithm to estimate the fair value of transfer fees to increase transparency in the transfer system and assist football stakeholders," the FIFA leader said.

It is unclear how a FIFA-approved method of setting fees would be accepted by clubs, limiting their selling options, or how it would comply with competition law in the European Union.

A ruling from the EU's Court of Justice in Luxembourg in the Super League case six weeks ago did not grant football bodies UEFA and FIFA the total victory they desired for their regulatory power.

FIFA’s interest in a price-setting algorithm has surfaced occasionally since it established a transfer task force in 2017 reporting to a committee that included delegates from clubs, leagues, and player unions. No proposal followed.

That same year, a record transfer deal was agreed upon that still stands – the 222 million euros Paris Saint-Germain paid Barcelona for Brazil forward Neymar.

Weeks later, Kylian Mbappe also joined PSG from France’s then-champion Monaco in a deal valued at about 180 million euros.

No other transfer fee paid since has come close, and PSG could get no fee at all if Mbappe leaves as a free agent when his contract expires in June.

FIFA spends millions of dollars each year helping fund a master's course and football research unit at the University of Neuchâtel in Switzerland, which says it has worked on a transfer value algorithm since 2010.

The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) currently values Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham and Vinícius Júnior, plus Manchester City forward Erling Haaland at least 250 million euros.

The ranking assumes valuations for players if they have at least three years left on their contract.

The CIES research method weighs factors including the player’s age, length of contract, international record, and the context of their clubs and the global economy.

Lower values are placed on the top-ranked players judged by the football industry website Transfermarkt.

Bellingham, Haaland, and Mbappe currently have market values of 180 million euros with Transfermarkt – a difference of tens of millions of euros compared to the algorithm.