While recent clashes between two terrorist groups, namely Daesh and the PKK's Syrian branch YPG, left more than 330 people dead in northeastern Syria, Daesh was back in the headlines the past week, a reminder of a war that formally ended three years ago but continues to be fought mostly out of sight.
Its spectacular jailbreak in Syria and a deadly attack on an army barracks in Iraq were some of the boldest since the extremist group lost its last sliver of territory in 2019 with the help of a United States-led international coalition, following a yearslong war that left much of Iraq and Syria in ruins.
Residents in both countries say the recent high-profile Daesh operations only confirmed what they’ve known and feared for months: Economic collapse, lack of governance and growing ethnic tensions in the impoverished region are reversing counter-Daesh gains, allowing the group to threaten parts of its former so-called caliphate once again.
One Syrian man said that over the past few years, militants repeatedly carried out attacks in his town of Shuheil, a former Daesh stronghold in eastern Syria’s Deir el-Zour province. They hit members of the YPG-led security force or the local administration – then vanished.
"We would think it is over, and they’re not coming back. Then suddenly, everything turns upside down again," he said.
They are "everywhere," he said, striking quickly and mostly in the dark, creating the aura of a stealth omnipresent force. He spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear for his safety.
Daesh lost its last patch of territory near Baghouz in eastern Syria in March 2019. Since that time, it largely went underground and waged a low-level insurgency, including roadside bombings, assassinations and hit-and-run attacks mostly targeting security forces. In eastern Syria, the militants carried out some 342 operations over the last year, many of them attacks on the U.S.- backed YPG terrorists, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
The PKK is a designated terrorist organization in the U.S., Turkey and the European Union, and Washington's support for its Syrian affiliate has been a major strain on bilateral relations with Ankara. The U.S. primarily partnered with the YPG in northeastern Syria in its fight against the Daesh terrorist group. This is despite Turkey strongly opposing the YPG's presence in northern Syria. Ankara has long objected to the U.S.' support for the YPG, a terrorist group that poses a threat to Turkey and that terrorizes local people, destroying their homes and forcing them to flee.
Under the pretext of fighting Daesh, the U.S. has provided military training and given truckloads of military support to the YPG, despite its NATO ally's security concerns. Underlining that one cannot support one terrorist group to defeat another, Turkey conducted its own counterterrorism operations, over the course of which it has managed to remove a significant number of terrorists from the region.
The Jan. 20 prison break in Syria’s Hassakeh region was Daesh's most sophisticated operation yet. The militants stormed the prison aiming to break out thousands of comrades, some of whom simultaneously rioted inside. The attackers allowed some inmates to escape, took hostages, including child detainees, and battled the YPG terrorists for a week. It was not clear how many militants managed to escape, and some remain holed up in the prison.
The fighting killed dozens and drew in the U.S.-led coalition, which carried out airstrikes and deployed U.S. personnel in Bradley Fighting Vehicles to the scene. The battle also drove thousands of neighboring civilians from their homes.
It harkened back to a series of jailbreaks that fueled Daesh's surge more than eight years ago, when they overwhelmed territory in Iraq and Syria.
Hours after the prison attack began, Daesh gunmen in Iraq broke into a barracks in the mountains north of Baghdad, killed a guard and shot dead 11 soldiers as they slept. It was part of a recent uptick in attacks that have stoked fears the group is also gaining momentum in Iraq.
An Iraqi intelligence source said Daesh does not have the same sources of financing as in the past and is incapable of holding ground. "They are working as a very decentralized organization," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security information.
The group's biggest operations are conducted by seven to 10 militants, said Iraqi military spokesperson Maj. Gen. Yehia Rasool. He said he believes it is currently impossible for Daesh to take over a village, let alone a city. In the summer of 2014, Iraqi forces collapsed and retreated when the terrorists overran vast swathes of northern Iraq.
On its online channel, Aamaq, Daesh has been putting out videos from the prison attack and glorifying its other operations in an intensified propaganda campaign. The aim is to recruit new members and "reactivate quasi-dormant networks throughout the region," according to an analysis by the Soufan Group security consultancy.
On both sides of the Syria-Iraq border, Daesh benefits from ethnic and sectarian resentments and from deteriorating economies. In Iraq, the rivalry between the Baghdad-based central government and the autonomous Kurdish region in the north of the country has opened up cracks through which Daesh has crept back. Sunni Arab disenchantment with Shiite politicians helps the group attract young men. In eastern Syria, the tensions are between the YPG-led administration and the Arab population. Daesh feeds off Arab discontent with the YPG domination of power and employment at a time when Syria’s currency is collapsing.
YPG terrorists have also carried out crackdowns against the Arab population on suspicion of Daesh sympathies, especially after a wave of protests against living conditions. At the same time, to reduce tensions, YPG authorities released detained Arabs and encouraged members of Arab tribes to join their ranks. But those steps have raised concerns over infiltration or charges of corruption, adding to the challenges.
The militants have cells extending from Baghouz in the east to rural Manbij in Aleppo province to the west, according to Rami Abdurrahman, the head of the Syrian Observatory.
"They are trying to reaffirm their presence," he said.
Eastern Syria is also fractured among several competing forces. The YPG runs most of the territory east of the Euphrates, supported by hundreds of U.S. troops. The Syrian regime, with its Russian and Iranian allies, is west of the river. The Turkey-backed opposition holds a belt along the countries’ border.
Turkey considers Daesh and the YPG a great threat not only to itself but to other countries as well, particularly Syria, and if cooperation between these organizations on the ground is not terminated, it will be impossible to ensure permanent stability and security in the country. At a meeting in Rome last year, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu opposed the support for the YPG among the coalition partners, under the pretext of fighting Daesh, stressing that they both feed each other financially and logistically.
In contrast, "Turkey is the only NATO country fighting the terrorist group Daesh on the front line," he said. Çavuşoğlu also said that Turkey has disabled the financial structure of Daesh and so far 4,500 militants have been eliminated in Syria and Iraq. "Daesh, despite its withdrawal, is still a threat," he emphasized. "The fight against one terrorist group should not be countered with support for another terrorist group," he said, stressing that the methods used to defeat Daesh in Syria have been faulty since the beginning.
"The YPG/PKK and the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are extensions of the PKK in Syria. The YPG/PKK needs Daesh to maintain its own importance and is benefiting from the presence of Daesh," he said.