Israeli policies have an influence on the presence of the U.S. in Cyprus, experts argue, following a new defense cooperation agreement between Washington and the Greek Cypriot administration, which will boost U.S. military and logistical activities in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Murat Aslan, a foreign and security policy analyst at Hasan Kalyoncu University in Türkiye's Gaziantep province and a senior researcher at the Ankara-based Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), said the U.S. has long utilized Greek Cyprus and that its involvement has increased due to Israel's war on Gaza.

Aslan added that the U.S. considers the Eastern Mediterranean a critical region due to its geostrategic importance.

Although the Eastern Mediterranean was not the primary reason for the U.S. decision to sign the agreement on Sept. 9, Aslan said the U.S. could use the region for potential future operations, including access to Gaza and global markets and repositioning itself militarily.

He also noted that the U.S. often intervenes in both the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean with naval and air assets, maintaining mobility and operational flexibility.

Pointing out that any intervention from fixed bases usually requires the approval of the host country, Aslan said that for this reason, the U.S. has slightly reduced its dependence on the Incirlik base in southern Türkiye.

"In terms of Europe's security, it has brought forward bases in Romania and Bulgaria, especially those in Romania. In the Eastern Mediterranean, these ships definitely need a port for logistical needs, either to anchor continuously or at least to complete their logistics. Therefore, it may be the result of the operational requirements of the naval forces," he said.

Politically, Aslan said the U.N., rather than the U.S., remains the dominant actor in the Cyprus issue, noting that U.S. policymakers, regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans are in power, tend to adopt a pro-Greek stance regarding the issue.

Aslan cited fluctuating U.S.-Türkiye relations as a factor shaping American policy.

"As fluctuations in Turkish-American relations persist and the U.S. gains a more effective military and political advantage from the opportunities offered by the current geographical positioning of Southern Cyprus, it will likely adopt a slightly more pro-Greek stance on the Cyprus issue," he said.

He also pointed to the role of U.S. ambassadors, particularly former Ambassador to Athens Geoffrey Pyatt, whom he described as "pro-Greek."

He said ambassadors play an influential role in shaping U.S. policy on Cyprus.

Regarding Israel, he said Cyprus is "the most suitable point for providing direct assistance to Israel. This has always been the case throughout history; it's nothing new," adding the U.S. presence in Cyprus is "somewhat related to Israeli policy."

Cyprus issue

Türkiye last week condemned the signing of a roadmap between the U.S. and the Greek Cypriot Administration on enhancing defense cooperation.

The agreement was signed by the administration's Defense Minister, Vassilis Palmas, and U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander at a ceremony Monday in Lefkoşa (Nicosia), according to Greece's Kathimerini daily.

"This roadmap represents a strong commitment to further enhancing and deepening our relationship," said Palmas.

Washington enacted an arms embargo on Greek Cyprus in 1987 to prevent a potential arms race from harming peace talks with Turkish Cypriots but lifted it in 2022.

One month after that, the U.S. also announced that under the Defense Department National Guard’s State Partnership Program, the Greek Cypriot administration had been paired with the National Guard in the U.S. state of New Jersey. Türkiye and the TRNC strongly criticized both moves.

Following reports that British and U.S. bases on the island support Israel’s attacks on Gaza, TRNC President Ersin Tatar accused the Greek Cypriot administration of endangering the island’s 50-year peace period by becoming a logistical base serving Western interests.

Britain has two bases in Cyprus, considered independent territories, allowing it to maintain a permanent military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and conduct highly confidential military and intelligence activities. The bases host an extensive network of British and U.S. intelligence facilities, according to Declassified U.K., which reports on the work of military and intelligence agencies.

Türkiye, too, has recently hit out at attempts by the Greek Cypriot administration to build a naval base on the southeastern coast in collaboration with Greece.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned Ankara would not shy away from constructing naval bases or other maritime structures in Northern Cyprus if this proves "necessary."

The island of Cyprus has been split since 1974 when Greek Cypriots and the military dictatorship in Athens sought to unite Cyprus with Greece, leading to a coup on the island and prompting Türkiye to launch an intervention dubbed Cyprus Peace Operation. While the entire island has been a member of the EU since 2004, EU law is only applied in the southern part.

East-Med on U.S. and Western Agenda

Mehmet Balyemez, director of the Center of Research of Turkish Cypriot History at Baskent University, emphasized the historical importance of the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus, saying the region has been on the U.S. and Western agenda since the Cold War.

The idea of ​​ensuring the security of the Suez Canal, which has almost halved the route between Israel, the West and Asia, has enabled the immediate implementation of Western policies toward the region, Balyemez said.

He stressed that U.S.-centered policies in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean are driven by the need to ensure Israel's security and reduce Russia's influence in the region.

He also highlighted the construction of two military bases in Cyprus during British colonial rule in the 1950s, which the U.S. continues to benefit from. He warned that the U.S.-GCASC agreement could lead to dangerous consequences for the region.

"One of the aims of the agreement is to legitimize intervention in developments in the Eastern Mediterranean under U.S. patronage. The GCASC, through such agreements and armament efforts, aims to support U.S. operations in the Eastern Mediterranean while also ensuring its own security against potential attacks."

"It also seeks to balance the defense and cooperation policies implemented by Türkiye (with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus), which strengthens its military position day by day through such agreements and similar ones."

He also suggested that the defense cooperation agreement between the U.S. and the GCASC might be a step toward implementing plans for the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East in the near future.