It is unlikely that Russia will disengage from its role in Syria due to its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, said Jean-Pierre Filiu, a professor at Sciences Po and the former French deputy chief of mission in Syria, as he warned that the situation may exacerbate in the near future.

Speaking to Daily Sabah on the sidelines of a seminar titled "Reflections on the Arab Uprisings and Syria: French and Turkish perspectives" at TOBB University of Economics and Technology in the capital Ankara, Filiu said that Russia is unlikely to neglect Syria because of Ukraine. "On the contrary, they are going to increase their offensive profile in Syria."

"From the point of the Russians, this is a unified military front. I do not believe at all in a power vacuum (in Syria after Ukraine’s invasion) but I do believe and I see that the Syrian opposition are now raising the Ukrainian flag along with their three-star flag. This proves they are facing the same enemy – namely Putin’s expansionism."

Thousands of protesters in Syria's opposition enclave of Idlib last week marked 11 years since the start of an anti-regime uprising, buoyed by the global outcry over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Many of the demonstrators hoped the war launched by the Syrian regime's main backer, Russia, in Ukraine would rekindle interest in their cause. Ukrainian flags were visible at the Idlib protest, as were banners expressing solidarity with the Ukrainian people and demanding action against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Filiu also underlined that in a sign of continued commitment to Syria and the Bashar Assad regime, Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the country for talks and to inspect a Russian air base in the war-torn country just days before launching the invasion on Ukraine.

"We could have some kind of Russian diversion – maneuvers – in Syria in order to alleviate the Ukrainian front, but not the other way," he pointed out. Commenting on the possibility of a power vacuum in Syria, Filiu underlined that lessons have to be drawn from the past.

"Everybody in Syria and outside – in Turkey and in France – has to understand that without the non-implementation of Obama’s red line in 2013 there would not have been an annexation of Crimea a few months later and there would not have been this crisis in Ukraine."

In 2012, then U.S. President Barrack Obama said that if chemical weapons were used or moved, Assad would be crossing a "red line." However, shortly after when Washington determined that chemical weapons had been used, the president opted to pursue diplomacy with Russia instead of using force in Syria. The war-torn country saw the majority of chemical attacks after Obama’s red line.

"I think the problem when tackling Assad or Putin’s regime is that we believe there is a state rationality while there is a regime rationality," Filiu added.

Speaking during the seminar, he drew attention to the similarities of the leaders of Syria and Russia, saying that Putin and Assad have the same mindset, with both often using manipulation as a tactic and both running "mafia systems."

Filiu said that like Putin, Assad inherited the rule of the country without any effort or struggle in this regard.

"There is today a de facto Russian mandate in Syria," he said, highlighting the role and influence Moscow has both within the country as well as in the United Nations with its veto power.

Following the eruption of war, hospitals that gave their coordinates to the U.N. were targeted by Russian airstrikes, Filiu stressed, adding that hospitals that did not share their coordinates remained largely intact. Last year, a similar incident occurred when Moscow bombed a hospital in Idlib, injuring five members of staff and killing six patients, including a child. Turkish security sources had told Daily Sabah that the coordinates of Atareb hospital were shared with a United Nations entity and that the attack was deliberate.

Assad's grip on power hung by a thread after a nationwide uprising that erupted on March 15, 2011, escalated into a fully fledged civil war.

However, a decision by Putin to throw his military might behind the Syrian regime changed the course of the conflict and saved Assad's hold on power.

The launch of Russia's military intervention in Syria marked a turning point in Assad's fortunes that also enabled Moscow to deepen its military, economic and cultural ties with the regime. Moscow has two military bases in Syria: the aerodrome in Hemeimeem in the northwest and the naval port of Tartus, further south, protected by S-300 and S-400 air missile defense systems. Furthermore, Damascus and Moscow have signed several deals in energy, construction and agriculture.

Around 4 million people, at least half of them displaced, now live in a region of northwestern Syria that is the last enclave fighting Assad's rule despite years of deadly Russian-backed offensives. The conflict has also triggered a wave of millions of refugees across the Middle East and Europe.

On the refugees, Filiu stated that Assad does not want his people to come back as he does not want to deal with a group that oppose him and his rule.