Ten months after the presidential elections, Türkiye will once again go to the polls, this time to choose their local administrators. Although public attention is not as high as the May polls, political parties have set their ambitions high and will continue their harsh rivalry until the last day.
After determining their candidates and drafting their election manifestos, parties have flooded the field to introduce and promote their candidates.
The People's Alliance, formed by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), this time does not face a rival alliance since the opposition's May alliance fell apart following the defeat. The main strategy of the People's Alliance is to retain the cities it holds and win over Istanbul. Within this scope, the alliance is fielding joint candidates in 30 metropolitan municipalities, two of which are MHP candidates and the remaining 28 from the AK Party, as well as 29 cities.
During the 2019 municipal elections, mayors were chosen with a slight difference of less than 1.5% in 11 cities, indicating that some cities stand out, especially with the potential to change their administration. Cities like Balıkesir, Şanlıurfa, Eskişehir, Bursa or Antalya will be watched closely. Another point to watch is how the Green Left Party (YSP) – informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), the Good Party (IP), the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the Victory Party (ZP) will affect the votes.
In Istanbul, polls show the two main rivals, the candidates of the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the AK Party, are head-to-head. For the CHP, this race symbolizes an existential struggle. CHP voters, already disappointed by the failure of the opposition during presidential elections, view incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu as the new leader of the future CHP. Imamoğlu losing the metropolis would mean a blow to his career plans for the 2028 presidential race. In 2019, he had the support of the YSP, then known as the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and the IP, but both of these parties fielded their own candidates this time. Still, there are districts where the CHP and the YSP will collaborate as the latter decided not to field candidates. On the other side, although the YSP has its own candidate for the metropolitan municipality mayor, it is expected that part of Kurdish voters will vote for Imamoğlu as he established sympathy during his tenure.
For the AK Party, Istanbul has similarly a symbolic value, being the grand prize of Sunday's elections and also the starting point of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's career that brought him to the seat of first prime minister and then president. Therefore, the AK Party's candidate, Murat Kurum, promises the party a deep-rooted tradition and experience in municipal services. The locals of Istanbul know that Kurum, as mayor, would be more effective and smooth in working with the central government when much work is ahead of the city. Istanbul needs urgent urban transformation due to the potential catastrophic earthquake and urgent solutions for its unbearable traffic problem. The AK Party is known for its success in the construction sector as well as big infrastructure projects, including intersections, bridges, roads and railways.
On the other hand, Ankara is seen by the AK Party as a "surprise" city since winning the city over would catch everyone off guard. Although the possibility of a victory in Türkiye's capital seems small, the party and Erdoğan have led a busy campaign there, including last weekend at the big Ankara rally. The party pursued an insistent campaign despite the few chances because the AK Party could not afford to see its percentage fall too much as it would further discourage voters and their belief in the party. This is also the case for other cities as the party tries to limit voters going to other parties to a minimum.
The YRP, gaining more influence by the day, has built its strategy on exactly this factor – namely, gaining over conservative voters disappointed by the AK Party due to various issues, including the economy. Within this scope, it has fielded candidates that were previously part of the AK Party and thus drawn harsh reactions from Erdoğan. Its chairperson, Fatih Erbakan, on Wednesday, wrote, "By reaching the number of 516,800 members, we surpassed the Nationalist Movement Party and the Good Party and became the 3rd largest party in Türkiye," displaying the growing influence of the YRP as an alternative in Turkish politics.
Türkiye's third largest city, Izmir, also bears importance. However, the western city has traditionally been a strong bastion of the CHP. Here, the AK Party followed a different strategy. Its candidate has mostly refrained from using the party's logo during his campaign and has pursued an approach of promoting himself as a deputy who served for Izmir for four periods in Parliament. This "localization" strategy of the AK Party in Izmir might result in astonishing outcomes. These elections might be the first time the CHP won't be able to win with a big difference since locals are increasingly complaining that the city is being neglected and services are insufficient. Moreover, the YSP chose to field its candidate here, further decreasing the number of votes. With Dağ creating sympathy through his positive campaign and numerous visits engaging with the people on the field, the AK Party may significantly increase its potential here.
Sunday's elections will show the balance between voters who traditionally vote for their favorite party and those who prioritize the candidate and its potential projects rather than the party identity.