Türkiye has been intensifying its attacks against the PKK at home and abroad after clashes with the terrorist organization in northern Iraq killed at least 12 Turkish soldiers, bringing counterterrorism efforts to the forefront in the country.
The PKK has been on Türkiye’s political and security agenda for 40 years, during which the country has witnessed low and high-intensity tensions from time to time. With terrorism continuing to be a controversial and much-debated topic worldwide, Ankara has, throughout decades, adopted different strategies to cope with the group. However, even the fact that the PKK has survived for about 40 years shows that the organization must not be underestimated, especially considering that few terrorist organizations last that long.
After high-intensity warfare within the country, Ankara has focused its strategy on weakening the PKK’s presence in Türkiye and moving the battleground beyond the border in the past few years. Going from defensive to offensive, this policy has been successful in considerably decreasing the number of terrorist attacks and civilian losses within Türkiye. Earlier this year, the Interior Ministry announced that the number of terrorists in the country decreased to less than 100. Yet, on the other side, this strategy also had a downside – leading Türkiye’s fight against the PKK to become internationalized as it crossed the country’s borders toward northern Syria and Iraq. More actors became involved in the fight, with the U.S. and Russia emerging as obstacles in Syria and Iran, as well as the government in Iraq on the other side. Therefore, Türkiye’s fight moving over to these two countries has resulted in frequent tensions with the mentioned countries and their proxies. The PKK’s Syrian wing, the YPG, still holds almost one-third of Syria’s territory under the protection of Washington. At the same time, the PKK also still operates almost freely in neighboring Iraq, pointing to the need for further efforts to overcome the terrorist threat completely.
The latest escalation similarly took place in one of these arenas – Iraq, where the PKK has a strong presence, aided by the disunity and authority vacuum in the country. Still, when Türkiye started retaliation attacks in response to the 12 soldiers killed, Iraq was not the only target; attacks also took place in Syria. This shows another shift in Türkiye’s strategy against the PKK, namely adopting a more integrative policy in the fight and seeing coordinating strategies in both Syria and Iraq. As part of this strategy, Ankara has been trying to disrupt ties and logistical connections between the entities in both countries and preventing the establishment of a terror corridor that would stretch from Iraq to the Eastern Mediterranean. Therefore, Iraq’s northern Sinjar region, a strategic point of connection to Syria, has been a target focus for Türkiye.
The third shift of strategy in the country’s counterterrorism efforts has been to target middle-level organization members besides the decapitation targeting of the PKK’s command and control officials. Led by the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), terrorists responsible for arsenals, logistics, recruitment, intelligence, cell leaders, youth leaders, drug trafficking and money laundering have been the main targets, among others, weakening the group’s links while disrupting the PKK’s so-called qualified manpower.
As these strategies have been in effect for the past few years, questions arose as to why the PKK chose this timing for such a big attack against Turkish forces. Several scenarios are thus being discussed by officials and analysts in Ankara while retaliation airstrikes against the PKK continue. Shortly before the attack, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the previous intelligence chief hosted his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein in Ankara, accompanied by senior military and security officials, to discuss various issues, including anti-terror efforts. Ankara has long called on Iraqi authorities to prevent the terrorist group from using the country as a launchpad for terrorist attacks against Türkiye and has taken issues into its own hands as Baghdad struggled to exercise complete authority over its territory.
Yet recently, Türkiye has been stepping up pressure on the issue and the latest visit could be one of the reasons the PKK panicked and launched the attack from Iraqi territory. Another scenario has been in connection with the attack coming after the elections in May. The PKK leadership had announced a halt to its terrorist operations during elections and voiced support for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). With the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) regaining elections, the PKK lost hope for a new picture in Türkiye and possible cooperation with the opposition, which is less critical of the group and its political affiliates. It is also argued that the PKK, in general, is backed against the wall, losing its ability to recruit due to Türkiye’s increased operations. One hundred twenty-two terrorists have surrendered to Turkish security forces in 2023, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler pointed out last week. In fact, the fall of attacks by the PKK and recruitment have been ongoing for at least the past four years. The most likely reason for the attack’s timing is that winter is approaching, leading, as usual, to a freeze in large-scale escalations due to the difficulty of operating under winter conditions. It is possible that before retreating, the PKK aimed at carrying out one more big-scale attack against Türkiye. Turkish security sources said the main target of the weekend’s terror attack was actually a Turkish base. If the PKK had been successful in attacking the base, the consequences would have been more dire. Yet the attack occurred in a front security line that aimed to protect the bases and conduct surveillance activities.
The death of 12 Turkish soldiers continues to have implications for Syria and Iraq as retaliation is ongoing. Moreover, this attack has once again proven the righteousness of Türkiye vis-a-vis the Iraqi government and the U.S., strengthening the country’s hand in future counterterrorism operations abroad.