Greece has always been a sticking point in Türkiye’s long-strained relations with the European Union but a recently signed friendship accord is pushing longtime foes into opening a new page and the bloc to reconsider its hostilities toward Ankara.

The EU has traditionally insisted on using Greece as a stipulation in dealings with Türkiye but the rapprochement between Ankara and Athens could pare down some of that Greek influence on the bloc’s relations with Türkiye, according to expert and researcher Murat Aslan.

"The EU’s support for Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration in Cyprus, based on the solidarity clause, sets a precedent for assistance to other nations on various issues, therefore, the EU consistently conditions its relations with Türkiye on its stance toward Greece, a factor that has never changed," Aslan, a lecturer at Hasan Kalyoncu University who served various roles in the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), told Daily Sabah.

Arguing that the pair exercises a certain degree of influence on the EU’s decision-making mechanism, Aslan warned that Greece or the Greek Cypriot administration could invoke vetoes that would block EU decisions, which "poses a risk for the EU."

"Every condition and demand the pair makes regarding initiatives or reports on Türkiye make the documents. Therefore, maintaining a positive agenda in Türkiye-Greece could set back Greece’s negative attempts within the EU," he said.

The same cannot be said for the Greek Cypriots, Aslan went on, since they had greater "freedom of action" due to the ongoing unresolved Cyprus dispute and the absence of a U.N.-approved peace process.

"But once problems between Türkiye and Greece are settled on a sustainable and manageable level, some of the Greek Cypriot insistence will be up in the air and fade into the background, which would have positive repercussions (on ties with EU)," he said.

Disputes like drilling rights, delimitation of maritime zones and the divided island of Cyprus between the NATO allies and Aegean neighbors have defied resolution for decades.

When he made his historic visit to Athens earlier this month, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ushered in what he called a "new era" and said the nations could be "an example to the world."

The bloc welcomed the move, saying the expectation is for it to be sustainable to deescalate tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Moreover, since Erdoğan secured another five-year term in the May elections, the EU has been willing to reengage with Türkiye but stopped short of offering Ankara a clear resumption of membership talks.

Türkiye has been a candidate for EU membership for more than two decades, but talks stalled in 2016 over what Ankara says is the bloc’s "insistence on politicizing the issue."

Turkish foreign policy

Regarding the EU's ability to foster and maintain a positive atmosphere with Türkiye, Aslan acknowledged that it is typical for any international organization with 27 member states, such as the EU, to experience internal disagreements on various issues.

"Some of these disagreements might result in a shift in sentiment, either unfavorable or supportive of Türkiye," Aslan observed, citing the escalation in tensions with Greece in 2020. The pair came close to blows when Athens sought to expand its territorial claim from 6 nautical miles to 12 nautical miles, coinciding with Türkiye's exploration of the seabed for energy reserves.

Ankara at the time deployed naval and air forces into the region to which Athens responded by urging the EU to impose sanctions but several members, including Spain, Hungary and Italy were opposed to the idea.

"It’s impossible for a single member to have their stance accepted by the entire union. Trying to force an unfavorable decision is as difficult as trying to block a favorable one," Aslan noted.

He believes the internal dynamics in the EU are "bigger than Greece" since several points are a source of concern for the bloc, namely the trade volume with Türkiye, which will "always act as a constraint on both sides regardless of the intensity of the tensions."

EU has welcomed Ankara’s offer to revive relations earlier this year but for multiple members like Austria, Turkish membership is out of the question and they advocate terminating accession talks.

On the possibility of harshening Turkish policy, if dialogue remains frozen, Aslan dismissed any abrupt changes unless the other side calls for it.

Praising a pragmatic foreign policy that aligns itself by accurately assessing future scenarios, Aslan highlighted that both Erdoğan and his Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have expressed Türkiye’s strategic vision to be EU membership, without considering any alternative paths.

"The EU sets the tone of this relationship," Aslan said, adding: "They’re bound to read future projections very clearly and act toward it. If they are to make any malignant remarks, Ankara’s reaction would of course correspond to that."

"Positive steps mean Türkiye would do the same and even take one step further for a more cooperative relationship model," Aslan maintained.