As the critical March 31 local elections near, Türkiye's political parties try to form alliances or other cooperation models to increase their votes in provinces. Yet a dispirited and disunited opposition raises questions on a possible victory for opposition voters while strengthening the ruling alliance's hand.
The core of the race for the local elections will be the three metropolitan municipalities of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Voters' eyes have turned especially toward the country's economic and cultural capital, Istanbul, which also faces the pressing risk of an upcoming earthquake in the near future. Ekrem Imamoğlu, 52, the current mayor of Istanbul, will run again under the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). At the same time, former Environment and Urbanization Minister Murat Kurum will represent the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).
The contest for Istanbul is, however, more than just about winning over the city's administration. The CHP sees the vote as a final chance to prove that the opposition in the country is not dead but continues its quest to be the ruling party in the future. Therefore, the opposition base expects to repeat the success of the previous 2019 local elections.
Imamoğlu's election in 2019 ended 25 years of rule in Istanbul by the AK Party and its predecessors. That vote also saw the opposition win back the capital, Ankara, and keep power in the Aegean port city of Izmir.
The CHP's voter base was traumatized following last year's general elections, which were seen as the sole chance to change the legislative clout in the country amid rising inflation and the aftermath of the devastating February earthquakes. Yet, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won reelection as Türkiye's president, while his party and its allies took a majority in parliamentary elections.
Istanbul has a special significance for Erdoğan as the birthplace of his political career. The AK Party is set on winning back Ankara and Istanbul, which is also mirrored in the election slogan "Istanbul anew, AK Party anew."
The AK Party's candidate, Kurum, has the necessary experience and expertise that Istanbul desperately needs. Facing the risk of a major earthquake that would devastate the metropolis and affect the whole country's economy, Kurum's background as an urban planner and having worked in Türkiye's Housing Development Administration (TOKI) are invaluable traits to Istanbul's citizens. The former minister has already started to voice his projects, which will tackle earthquake preparations as well as solutions to Istanbul's second biggest problem – traffic.
"We determined where and what the problems are, street by street. We will reveal how to solve it with action plans," he said on Wednesday.
Kurum also vowed to solve the city's much-debated problem of street animals.
On the other hand, one of the main criticisms directed at Kurum, and his main obstacle to winning, is similarly rooted in the February earthquakes, which happened during his term as minister. His office was blamed for the zoning amnesties allowed during the AK Party term.
For Imamoğlu, the race for Istanbul symbolizes a bigger rivalry in terms of his future political career. If Imamoğlu loses, his path toward becoming CHP's presidential candidate for the 2028 general elections would be endangered. Having championed change in his party since the loss of the 2023 elections, Imamoğlu will prove to his supporters whether he can uphold the votes of Istanbulites. On the other hand, much criticism is directed toward his administration's lack of services and development in Istanbul. Being distracted by intra-CHP politics and last year's general elections, Imamoğlu is criticized for not doing enough for Istanbul's urban transition to become earthquake-ready.
In addition, the CHP, this time, lacks the alliances it boasted in the 2019 elections. The CHP and other opposition parties, including the nationalist Good Party (IP) and pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), previously known as the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), have not agreed to field shared candidates in big cities, many of which they won together in 2019. Imamoğlu said, however, that he can win voters from other opposition parties and the AK Party.
The CHP's biggest ally, the IP, has decided to run with its own candidates, which has caused much uproar among the opposition and its voters. Cracks between the two had already started when the CHP decided to run with previous Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu for the general elections, while the IP was advocating that younger Imamoğlu or Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş could have better chances at winning. Following the election loss of the CHP candidate, the IP started to distance itself from the party and follow its own path. Still, this decision caused internal rows between the IP. It has caused several high-level officials to leave the party in the past few weeks, arguing that cooperation should exist between the IP and CHP, at least in Ankara and Istanbul. The main reason why the IP chose not to ally with the CHP is that the alliances so far have hindered the party, which split from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in 2017 and was unable to assert its own identity and grow. This election is seen as an opportunity to test the party's supporter base.
The YSP's decision to enter the elections with its own candidates has similarly resulted in concerns for the CHP. Yet, it is still possible that the party could be convinced and cooperation could take place in some provinces as the clock is ticking.
Meanwhile, after announcing Istanbul's candidate and those of other provinces, the AK Party will announce more candidates on Monday, as well as candidates for the capital. Speculations focus on the name Turgut Altınok for Ankara's candidacy, while Yavaş will rerun for mayor for the CHP. Similar to Yavaş, Altınok comes from a nationalist base, having been part of the MHP in the past. The 62-year-old lawyer is popular, especially in his Keçiören district. However, Yavaş is a strong candidate, gaining country-wide popularity for his distancing himself from major political spats and concentrating rather on services for the capital. His calm personality and nationalist views on primary national issues concerning the country are acclaimed. It remains to be seen whether Altınok will be able to challenge the incumbent Ankara mayor and bring a victory for the AK Party.
Meanwhile, the AK Party is working on its election declaration and is expected to share it with the public at the end of the month. The declaration focuses especially on participatory municipalism, service, performance and environmental municipalism, culture and arts, social municipalism and safe and resilient cities. Erdoğan will particularly focus on the eastern earthquake zone during the campaign and is expected to announce more efforts in the earthquake zone and for its victims. He is planning to visit the affected areas on Feb. 6-9, which marks a year since the earthquakes hit the southern part of the country.
The Turkish public has a tendency to vote not for the quality of municipal works and services but rather in support of political parties. Therefore, voters are expected to build their choices not primarily on the candidate announced but rather according to their preferred party in general. This rules out the possibility of change in Izmir, while Ankara and Istanbul will witness tough races.