Debates on Sunday's election outcomes are vividly ongoing in Türkiye, where the ruling Justice and Development Party has suffered a significant setback while the main opposition has surprised everyone by increasing its votes since last May.
The election commission will announce the official results on April 14. The main puzzle that political parties currently discuss is whether the success of the Republican People's Party (CHP) is an emerging trend that will grow until the general elections in 2028 or whether the election results were an outcome of a temporary reaction toward the AK Party.
Two days after the election, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gathered his party's central executive board, again indicating that he is decisive in addressing the problems and engaging in self-criticism. "The message was received," he said in his public speech on election night. Thus, the AK Party strongly believes the disadvantaged status can be reversed in the next 4.5 years.
Three reasons
One of the factors why the ruling party lost votes on Sunday was the fact that AK Party voters did not go to the ballot in as high numbers as in the presidential elections last year. On the other side, there are three main reasons, among other trivial ones, why the public aimed to "punish" the AK Party at the ballot.
Firstly, the economic situation, which has worsened in the past few years, has strangled people with high inflation, the devaluation of the lira and increasing food prices. Especially the 15 million retirees – almost one-fourth of all voters in total – try to get by on TL 10,000 ($314) every month. Thus, the people wanted to express their dissatisfaction with the country's economic situation clearly.
Secondly, inefficient cadres have grown within the AK Party, contrary to the successful team that led the party in its first years. The difference in quality between Erdoğan himself and the party has opened widely. People consistently voted for Erdoğan himself, showing that the party itself has lost its significance. The third reason is also linked to this: The fact that as the AK Party has grown in power, it has lost its bonds to the people – a factor that the people have often raised.
These three reasons resulted in AK Party voters either being angry and not going to the ballot or voting for a rising conservative rival – namely the New Welfare Party (YRP).
Now, the way has opened for the opposition to have a real chance to challenge the AK Party through a process that started with the CHP congress that ousted its long-time and unsuccessful leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and installed new Chairperson Özgür Özel, championed through action taken by Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu. Therefore, the AK Party seriously needs to recalibrate its internal policies and win back the hearts of its supporters.
Overall, municipal elections have taken place with democratic maturity. The fact that the Turkish people voted for Erdoğan 10 months before and not the opposition shows that they were not ready to entrust the country to the opposition but wanted to criticize and offer the party the chance to change its course. Support continues for the president's security and foreign policies. We can expect renewal in the AK Party in the upcoming period, but the race for 2028 is not yet done. Erdoğan still has 4.5 years to gain back popular support. This could be in the form of fixing the economy, reconstructing the earthquake zones, building mega infrastructure projects or eradicating the PKK from Iraq's north. The party will work on a combination of projects to become Türkiye's number one political party again.