On Oct. 7, the world woke up to yet another episode of violent clashes in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israeli territories, leading to thousands of deaths from both sides – most of them civilians – and Israel avenging by hammering the Gaza Strip with airstrikes and razing entire districts in some of the worst blood-letting in the 75 years of conflict. The conflict has set off alarm bells for regional countries and great powers alike.
The latest round of escalation is the extension of decades-old problems that started with the establishment of the Zionist state. Palestinians have been denied their own state and have been living under occupation, grave humanitarian conditions as well as a constant fear of tensions and instability. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is another example in which diplomacy has failed so far.
Hamas officials said that the group had been preparing for this incursion for years. However, why did they choose this exact moment for launching it? Five main reasons stand out as to why the current context has been used. First of all, the escalation comes as the Arab world – once an unconditional supporter of the Palestinian cause – is normalizing its relations with Israel after decades of tensions. Within the scope of the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco and Bahrain established diplomatic relations with Israel and currently, a process is underway for the most important of such normalizations, namely with Saudi Arabia, home to the holiest sites of Islam. The ongoing clashes between Hamas and Tel Aviv have dealt a heavy blow to the possible landmark normalization deal, which would have been a crowning success for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Secondly, it also coincided with internal strife in Tel Aviv caused by disputed judicial reforms. Just days ago, Israel was divided by a judicial reform bill pushed by the far-right government of Netanyahu. The plan sparked mass protests at least weekly, with detractors warning it paves the way for authoritarian rule.
The third and fourth reasons are interconnected: the appointment of hardline, extremist and racist figures to the government’s top positions following the reelection of Netanyahu at the end of last year and the resulting expansion of illegal settlements in the West Bank. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has been given control over planning settlements in the occupied West Bank and removing the need for approvals from the political echelon throughout the planning process. Under international law, all Zionist settlements in the occupied territories are considered illegal.
Lastly, one has to look at the bigger picture where major powers are distancing themselves from ongoing global challenges. Already bogged down with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. under the Joe Biden administration, which already favored a lesser U.S. footprint in the Middle East, will not be able to put forth a concrete answer to the ongoing conflict. Russia and its military are weakened by the war with Ukraine, while China fails to assume leadership in global conflicts.
The lack of will and skill by the great powers to manage global problems, such as crises in Africa, the Caucasus or continuing problems in the Middle East, has opened the way for an increased role for middle powers such as Türkiye.
Multifaceted diplomacy
As President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had underlined during his speech at the U.N. General Assembly last month, a solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict is key to permanent peace and stability in the Middle East.
Since the first day of the Hamas attack, Erdoğan has ramped up busy diplomatic efforts to halt the conflict and prevent it from spreading to the wider region. He has discussed the issue with several world leaders, including those of the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Palestine and Israel, among others. Ankara emphasized diplomatic efforts to achieve calm in the recent conflict, calling on parties to act with restraint.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry and intelligence units also intensified their work on mediation and prisoner exchange. A negotiation process with Hamas for the release of Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas – mostly Israelis but also including foreign and dual nationals – has been launched. Meanwhile, Ankara, Washington, Doha and Cairo are working on delivering humanitarian aid through the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula under a limited cease-fire. Furthermore, the parliament general assembly met on Thursday solely to discuss the conflict. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan briefed lawmakers about the issue while representatives of political parties also had the opportunity to speak. Türkiye has also voiced it can act as a mediator for the conflict. Although it might take a facilitating role to halt the current clashes with Hamas, Israel is not open to Turkish mediation for the greater Israeli-Palestinian question.
Türkiye, which has backed Palestinians in the past and hosted members of Hamas, had been working to mend ties with Israel after years of animosity before the latest violence.
Erdoğan had said Netanyahu could visit Türkiye in October or November to discuss cooperation on energy. Türkiye and Israel often traded barbs regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict prior to the normalization of relations that led to the reappointment of envoys last year.
Arab countries are similarly seeking to halt the fighting, otherwise, it will be difficult for them to convey to their populations the wisdom behind continuing relations with Israel.
The reigniting of clashes will therefore have repercussions for both Israel’s relations with Türkiye and the Arab world. This might prove the words of Netanyahu right, who recently said, "Our response to the Gaza attacks will change the Middle East."
Counterproductive context
This scale of violence and the ongoing clashes are counterproductive for Palestinians. The Hamas attack serves no purpose toward a peaceful and political accomplishment, yet the attack itself has to be a wake-up call for Tel Aviv for the urgent need to address the roots of the problem. It is difficult for Israel to find the peace and security it seeks unless an independent and geographically integrated Palestinian state is established based on the 1967 borders.
Although Israel is currently enjoying the sympathy and solidarity of the international community at large, including the U.S., support would erode by the day in the case of unilateral large-scale attacks against Gaza, adding to the human suffering. Civilian casualties in such a densely habituated area are unavoidable. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is worrying, with its the health sector on the verge of collapse. The Israeli military says it is preparing for a possible ground operation in Gaza, but the political leadership has not yet decided on one.
The upcoming days will answer as to what Israel’s future plan for the problem will be: whether it will seek a full-scale Israeli invasion of Gaza, whether Hamas deliberately sought escalation, and what the international community will do this time.