Israel’s harsh and disproportionate violence in Gaza, following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, has undercut the positive momentum gathered in bilateral ties with Türkiye, precluding enhanced cooperation on regional issues as well as the field of energy.
Türkiye had adopted a balanced approach and a more measured tone following Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel, which led to the deaths of civilians. Calling on Israel to show restraint in its retaliation attacks on Gaza, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Oct. 9 said that Ankara is also against similar attacks on Israeli cities and offered a role for mediation. The Turkish president also held a phone call with his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog, stressing that, "Any step could harm the people of Gaza collectively or will indiscriminately further increase the suffering and mounting of violence in the region."
However, developments spiraled after an attack on Gaza’s Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital, leading to large and angry protests across the Muslim world and within Türkiye – to the point that Israel called on its diplomats to leave the country. As violence and civilian suffering increasingly continued in its third week, causing a humanitarian tragedy, Erdoğan became much more vocal in his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his refusal to engage in de-escalation and mediation offers.
The Turkish republic’s reaction to the conflict and that of several political parties has been sensitive as well as with anger, with protests in several cities and even calls for the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) to enter Palestine. Facing local elections in March 2024, Erdoğan had no chance to ignore the calls and adopted a harsher stance toward Israel.
On Wednesday, Erdoğan said he was canceling plans to visit Israel because of its "inhumane" war against Palestinians.
"I shook the hand of this man named Netanyahu one time in my life," Erdogan said, referring to his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly last month.
"If he (Netanyahu) had continued with good intentions, our relations might have been different, but now, unfortunately, that will not happen either because they took advantage of our good intentions," he added.
The difficult path to normalization had been achieved last year as the two countries decided to compartmentalize areas and issues concerning their bilateral ties. Ankara continued to voice its support for a two-state solution regarding Palestine but remained out of Israel’s internal issues, thereby opening the path to cooperate in fields that would benefit both countries. A planned visit by Netanyahu would have further increased ties to a new level. Yet, the latest tensions led Erdoğan to cancel his visit.
The two countries, being strong actors in the Middle East, had the chance to cooperate on regional questions, the defense industry, tourism, the economy as well as energy in the Eastern Mediterranean. But Ankara paused plans for energy cooperation, while Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar canceled a planned trip to Tel Aviv that was supposed to take place before the end of this year, an Energy Ministry source told Daily Sabah.
"The visit is currently not on the minister's agenda," the official said.
If Israel leaves behind the impulse for revenge and engages in de-escalation efforts as quickly as possible, ending the blockade for Gaza and allowing for humanitarian aid to enter the region, ties with Türkiye and the wider Arab world can be salvaged. A humanitarian cease-fire followed by mediation of regional countries and a solution to please all involved parties stands out as the only means to peace and stability. Israel’s continuing airstrikes and possible large-scale ground offensive to root out Hamas from Gaza is no solution as this leads to unanswered questions as to what Tel Aviv has planned next for Gaza after Hamas and who will represent Palestinians in Gaza once Hamas has been eradicated.
The fact that Erdoğan’s criticism was mainly directed toward Netanyahu and not the Israeli state itself is a message that relations can start from where they left off after the conflict settles down. Furthermore, the fact that Türkiye has not called its ambassadors back is in itself an indicator.