It is a first in Turkish history that all parties involved in the process to eradicate the decades-long threat caused by the PKK are on the same page and supportive of the initiatives taken.

The first sign that the ruling coalition of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) entered a new process and talks with the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) came when MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli shook hands with DEM Party deputies – a rare move – at the opening of Parliament's new legal year. The continuation of this policy reached its highest point when the nationalist leader on Tuesday called on the PKK’s jailed leader Abdullah Öcalan to come to Parliament and speak at a DEM Party meeting to call for the terrorist organization to lay down arms and dissolve.

"If he shows this determination, let the path for regulation toward the 'right to hope' be opened," Bahçeli said, in reference to an imprisoned person’s right to rehabilitation and possible freedom.

Another important statement from Bahçeli was when he said the problem could be solved by going through Imralı and the DEM Party instead of Qandil and Edirne. This clearly indicates that the ruling alliance will not choose Selahattin Demirtaş, an imprisoned but still influential Kurdish leader incarcerated in Edirne, or the PKK’s leadership in Iraq’s Qandil for the upcoming dialogue but is aiming to use Öcalan, being held in a prison in Imralı, through the window of a legal party, the DEM Party, to initiate the process.

On the same day, main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Özgür Özel called out Bahçeli saying: "I raise my hand, Mr. Devlet. I offer inclusion in a state to the Kurds. I propose all Kurds who do not feel true belonging are also the owners of the Republic of Türkiye."

"We expect everyone to understand that there is no place for terrorism and its dark shadow in Türkiye’s future," Erdoğan said on the issue, bolstering Bahçeli’s statements. "In this regard, we hope that the historic window of opportunity opened by the People's Alliance will not be wasted for personal gain."

DEM Party, the third largest party in Parliament, similarly acknowledged support for the process. "The interlocutor of peace in the Middle East and Türkiye is Abdullah Öcalan, who is isolated in Imralı. The solution to the Kurdish problem is Parliament. The interlocutor is the DEM Party," said co-leader of the DEM Party, Tülay Hatimoğulları. Again, former co-chair of the HDP Demirtaş, said, "If Öcalan takes the initiative and wants to pave the way for politics, we will be behind him with all our might."

Dancing with the devil

However, the process brings several questions with it. Will the PKK heed the call of Öcalan if he decides to cooperate with the government? The PKK terrorist attack on a vital aerospace company in Ankara just one day after Bahçeli’s statements could be recognized as a "no," but it could also have been carried out by one wing of provocateurs within the terrorist organization, making it difficult to analyze for certain. Will so-called high-level PKK operatives drop their arms and submit to justice? What will be the reaction of foreign powers that had been supporting the PKK or especially its Syrian wing, the YPG?

Öcalan has been serving a life term in isolation on a prison island off Istanbul since 1999. On Wednesday, he received his first prison visit since 2020 by his nephew, Ömer Öcalan, a DEM Party deputy.

Speaking to Daily Sabah, Murat Aslan, a faculty member at Hasan Kalyoncu University, reiterated that Türkiye has witnessed four processes on the issue, most during the AK Party period, that failed due to the PKK’s negative stance and aggressive acts.

Referring to a speech made a day earlier by Murat Karayılan, a PKK leader, Aslan said: "The Marxist speech dwelled upon theory and practice and he said we have the practice in our hands. That is why the PKK will be the decisionmaker, not Öcalan or Demirtaş."

Meanwhile, Öcalan said: "If the conditions are right, I have the theoretical and practical power to move this process from a foundation of conflict and violence to legal and political ground," as conveyed by his nephew.

"So, there is a polarization between Qandil and Imralı and the DEM Party seems to be caught in the middle, not knowing what to do. If a process is to be started, it can be clearly seen that there is no uniform and coordinated stance within the PKK, which puts the process launched by Bahçeli into an ambiguous position," Aslan highlighted.

"If there is coordination, Öcalan may realize the call made by Bahçeli. However, if there is no coordination but polarization, it displays that the PKK as of Wednesday has started to crack in military and political areas. There is a disengagement between the political and military leadership. This will divide the military wing further," he added, underlining that there is a circle that operated within the PKK under the leadership of Öcalan, thus being close to him, while there is another circle denying this leadership.

"This can cause an identity crisis within the PKK."

"Previously, both Qandil and Demirtaş were repeatedly pointing to Öcalan for the solution of this problem. Bahçeli, with his latest move, said that Öcalan should shoulder the process," said Vahap Coşkun, lecturer at Dicle University. He indicated that the government had likely done research before publicly announcing the initiative and that neither the government nor Öcalan would like to find themselves in a situation where the process fails once again.

Aslan also emphasized that the PKK could succeed in suppressing political leadership and render the DEM Party meaningless. On the other hand, he said that the rivalry between Qandil and Syria’s northeast is clear despite the group trying to hide the divide.

What changed?

"If we look at the statements made by the People’s Alliance, we see that regional dynamics play a significant role in this move so that the uncertainty in the Middle East does not threaten Türkiye’s security," Coşkun pointed out. "Türkiye wants internal solidification."

Indeed, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan especially for the last month has been calling for greater internal unity in the face of rising security issues in the region caused by Israel’s attacks on Gaza, and Iran and its proxies.

"The beginning of today’s case is the Gaza genocide that started on Oct. 7. And the goal of the PKK to institutionalize the status given to itself in Syria’s north is clear. Bahçeli’s words point to a desire to strengthen the sense of belonging of Kurds in Türkiye," said Anadolu Agency (AA) foreign policy analyst Özcan Tikit.

Saying that if Türkiye succeeds it will have an influential effect on both Syria and the region, Tikit added that, "However, the foreign factors leading to the collapse of the previous process are still intact."

Aslan, weighing in on the main actors concerning the PKK question, said that the U.S., which has close ties to the YPG, aims to continue the terrorist organization’s presence to have power against Iran, ensure the security of Israel and limit Türkiye in the region. "Iran, on the other side, tries to distance itself from the PKK these days to consolidate its ties with Türkiye as it grapples with the threat coming from Israel," he added. Aslan continued to say that Russia tries to balance Türkiye, the PKK and the Assad regime in Syria while Israel tries to render the PKK more aggressive and active as a card against Ankara.

Weighing the past

The Turkish state held talks with Öcalan and the PKK in 2013, but that process and a cease-fire collapsed in July 2015, unleashing the bloodiest period in the conflict.

"In the previous period, there were certain dynamics directly related to the process, namely the will of the state, the will of the terrorist organization, the will of the public and that of foreign actors," Coşkun said. "I believe that this time we are in a more advantageous situation in that the process was carried to Parliament."

He said that in the previous process, Bahçeli and the MHP were directly against the initiative and took a hardline nationalist stance. "Today Bahçeli is directly part of the process and even its architect. He can thus absorb the criticism that will come from the nationalist circle in the country."

He said that the CHP in 2013-2015 also was not eager for the process, while Özel’s statements now indicate that the main opposition will not obstruct the initiative.

"The fact that the leading four parties in Parliament all are part of the process in some way will also help to soften the public and make the public more easily accept it. The People’s Alliance can easily make its base accept the process and convince them in an atmosphere where regional dynamics threaten the country’s security," Coşkun added, saying that in 2013-2015 again regional dynamics spurred the process as the region was witnessing the Arab Spring.

For his part, Tikit said similarly that the process started during the Arab Spring and the Davos summit. "At that time the reason for the failure of the process was rooted outside. The PKK, which had accepted Türkiye’s goal of disarmament at the beginning, has backed down from what it had initially accepted, especially under the influence of those who promised status in northern Syria."

Although the regional atmosphere is once again tumultuous with new challenges for countries in the Middle East, the political puzzle within Türkiye and the stances of the main parties have changed. Ankara enters the new process in a more optimum scene compared to 2013-2015. Yet, it will be the dynamics between the DEM Party, Öcalan, Demirtaş, Qandil and Syria’s north that will decide whether the latest attempt at eradicating terrorism from Türkiye’s agenda will be fruitful.