Economic prosperity and security are tightly knitted for Türkiye and Iraq as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan heads to Baghdad on Monday for the first time in over a decade to "establish new grounds for relations and resolve outstanding issues."

The visit comes after Ankara announced plans to mount a comprehensive military operation against the PKK terrorist group in northern Iraq’s mountainous Qandil region – currently under the de-jure control of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – this summer.

It will also underpin the groundwork laid by Turkish-Iraqi diplomats in recent months, most notably for the Development Road, a $17 billion project expected to tie Grand Faw Port, a major commodities port in Iraq's oil-rich south, to the border with Türkiye and then to Europe through a network of railways and highways.

Shared concerns

Both Ankara and Baghdad are naturally coming into this key meeting with concerns of their own, with three top items for the sides: water supply issues, Development Road and the fight against the PKK, international relations expert Dr. Murat Aslan said.

According to Bilgay Duman, coordinator of Iraq Studies for the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM), ensuring security and stability is top priority, not just in Iraq’s north but across the entire country.

"Projects like the Development Road are critical for Iraq as it tries to cultivate economic prosperity and recover from the aftermath of the U.S. invasion," Aslan said, citing protests in Basra and Baghdad last year against lack of services. "And terrorist groups like the PKK and Daesh are the biggest threat to this project, specifically."

"The PKK is not exclusive to Iraq but similar to Daesh, it’s a direct threat to Iraq’s territorial integrity," he said.

Duman argued Baghdad failed to restrain the PKK or fully implement the 2020 Sinjar Agreement with the KRG, which aimed to rid the city of the PKK and return thousands of displaced residents, but he acknowledged the country’s effort to take measures, notably the attempt to take control of the Makhmour refugee camp.

"They can see the group has become a bigger threat for them and have been more active in fighting against it," he said.

PKK 'occupation'

The terrorist group is blacklisted as such in Türkiye, the United States and the European Union. It took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984 and more than 40,000 people have been killed in the insurgency since.

The conflict was long fought mainly in rural areas of southeastern Türkiye but is now more focused on the mountains of northern Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, where PKK militants are based.

Türkiye has since 2019 conducted a series of cross-border operations in northern Iraq against the PKK, dubbed "Claw," the latest of which is the ongoing "Claw-Lock."

Up until recently, Iraq has said the operations violate its sovereignty, but Ankara says it is protecting its borders where the intention is to establish a 30-40 kilometer security corridor. Earlier this week, it said Claw-Lock would be finalized by this summer.

The PKK also has a political foothold in Iraq through the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and occupies even urban Iraqi cities like Makhmour, Sinjar and Sulaymaniyah where it often intimidates the local population by setting up "checkpoints" and through extortions and kidnappings.

The PUK itself is accused of giving more freedom of movement both in the city and rural parts of Sulaymaniyah to the PKK and their collaboration in KRG-controlled northern Iraq risks spillover of the terrorist group's violent campaigns to a wider region.

Ankara has since closed off its airspace to flights to the city and halted its own flights. Particularly after 21 Turkish soldiers were killed in Metina, it repeatedly warned of "further measures" if the Sulaymaniyah administration continues to tolerate terrorists.

"Iraq has at least acknowledged that its territorial integrity will be under major risk so long as an armed and organized terror group that can carry out attacks any time it wants remains active on its soil," Aslan said.

After Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalın visited Baghdad last month, Iraq officially outlawed the PKK but the primary measure it must take, according to Aslan, is to definitively limit the group’s mobility on Iraqi territories.

"They must root out operatives living in central towns through intelligence operations and arrest members on sight," he said.

"Most importantly, there’s the security strip carved along Türkiye’s southern borders where both Peshmerga and central Iraqi forces and the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) must operate a joint center to remove the PKK from the region and coordinate security efforts," Aslan argued.

He also believes Ankara could directly help Baghdad develop measures against terrorist groups and boost its armed forces capacity, starting with homegrown armed drones.

Duman believes Erdoğan’s visit could result in such an agreement stipulating a joint mechanism if not joint operations.

He also argued the impending Turkish offensive should not be regarded independently from the Claw operations Ankara has conducted against the PKK so far.

"It will tie up the ongoing operations and target the existing zones where the terrorists are rooted," Duman said.

Threats to development

In addition to the PKK and Daesh, there are other risks that could impede the Development Road project, which is vital for Iraq, according to Aslan.

"Regional crises like the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Iran-Israel tensions and the disapproval of ethnic and strife between sectarian groups in Iraq inhabiting the project’s set route could impede the project," he said, pointing out the rising chorus of Iraqi Sunnis demanding a federal state at parliament last month.

Iraq, also utilizing Türkiye’s unifying and constructive effect, must ensure transparency, stability, as well as the consent and satisfaction of these groups, and the cooperation of other regional countries, for the smooth operation of this critical road, Aslan argued.

According to Duman, however, the project shouldn’t be associated with the PKK alone since it constitutes "literally the future of Iraq."

"To prevent the PKK, Daesh or crises like Israel-Iran escalation from harming the project, Türkiye is presenting it as a regional development project," he said. "Therefore, Gulf nations and Iran could throw their support behind it."

Oil, water flows

Aslan believes there’s great potential for economic interaction between Türkiye and Iraq.

Türkiye increased its exports the most to Iraq this year, with sales soaring by almost $691.5 million (TL 22.48 billion) from January through March. For Iraq, however, Türkiye only covers a 5% share of the country’s top imports, leaving room for enlargement.

The sides have been at odds over oil exports from the KRG region. The Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline, which once handled about 0.5% of global oil supply, has been offline since March 2023, when Ankara halted flows following an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC).

The ICC said Ankara should pay Baghdad damages of $1.5 billion over what it said were unauthorized exports by KRG between 2014 and 2018. Türkiye, on the other hand, said the ICC had recognized most of Ankara's demands.

The KRG exports flow through a pipeline to Fish-Khabur on the northern Iraqi border, where the oil enters Türkiye and is pumped to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean coast.

Erdoğan is expected to discuss the details of possibly reopening the pipeline on Monday.

Aslan anticipates the Turkish leader will also address the crucial water supply issue that has been a sticking point in recent years.

Due to the increasing effects of climate change, Baghdad demands increased water supply from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which flow from the mountains of the Taurus in Türkiye and empty into the Persian Gulf. The rivers account for more than 90% of Iraq’s fresh water.

"Türkiye fulfills the terms of the existing agreements with its dams in the region but Iraq demands more," Aslan said. "I think they can come up with a new deal that will satisfy both sides during Erdoğan’s visit."

KRG ties

Earlier this week, Erdoğan said he would drop by the KRG capital Irbil during his visit, which Duman said would "emphasize the importance of unity between Irbil and Baghdad in Turkish-Iraqi ties and the fight against the PKK."

Ankara enjoys close relations and cooperation with the KRG, administered by President Nechirvan Barzani, which is also beneficial to the central Iraqi government.

"But the disputes between Kurdish political parties in northern Iraq are a major problem because PUK leader Bafel Talabani is trying to dominate the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) by colluding with the PKK, Iran and the U.S.," Aslan argued. The KDP is the largest party in Iraqi Kurdistan and the senior partner in the KRG.

"This struggle creates opportunities for the PKK, Iran and the U.S. to shape the region so close to the Turkish border and therefore pose major risks to Türkiye," Aslan said and added: "Erdoğan’s visit to Irbil, therefore, would send a strong message to local political tendencies that could support the PKK."