President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is heading to Germany for a working visit this Friday with what he said was a “message to the West” at a critical point in the latest round of the Palestine-Israel conflict.
Erdoğan’s visit is his first since 2020, despite several German calls to cancel it, and is underscored by a palpably tense atmosphere as Ankara and Berlin hold starkly opposing stances on the Israeli aggression in the besieged Gaza Strip. It also covers the future of Türkiye-European Union relations, the issue of irregular migration and cooperation in NATO.
Erdoğan is making the trip hoping to discern the “exact attitude” in Berlin, which he said has been “uncertain” so far, with regards to Israeli “massacres.”
Turkish ties with the broader EU hang on a precarious balance as calls mount for an immediate cease-fire in the brutal Israeli attacks on Gaza in relation to an unprecedented incursion by the Hamas resistance group on Oct. 7, which left over 1,200 Israelis dead and some 240 others captive.
Israel has relentlessly pounded the densely populated Palestinian city and sent in troops, sparking an escalating humanitarian crisis.
In a heated public address on Wednesday, Erdoğan declared Israel a “terrorist state” for its indiscriminate bombing that has killed over 11,000 Palestinians, mostly children, in the past five weeks.
He has also described Hamas as a “liberation organization” much to the chagrin of the United States and the EU who classify it as a terrorist organization.
In its annual report on candidate countries' progress published this week, the EU said Türkiye's "rhetoric in support of terrorist group Hamas following its attacks against Israel... is in complete disagreement with the EU approach."
"The European Union thinks exactly the same as Israel regarding Hamas. But we did not think like them," Erdoğan said.
Pointing to a “consistent opposition to Türkiye’s perspective on every other issue” from the bloc, he said Türkiye would “never fall into the trap of calling Hamas a terrorist organization.”
"I see Hamas as a political party that won the elections in Palestine. I don't look at it the same way they do," he added.
He has accused the Western bloc of militarily and politically enabling Israel in its war crimes, denounced European tendency to “not care who is trampling all over international law” and declared Türkiye would take the issue to the International Criminal Court (ICC).
He assured his trip to Berlin would “clarify many things.”
“We will have certain messages to the West. Or these (messages) will echo throughout the rest of Europe since Germany is the strongest country in the continent.”
But, the German stance on Hamas and Israel is “rock solid,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz will reportedly tell Erdoğan at their meeting.
Scholz opposes an “immediate” cease-fire in Gaza based on what he said would enable Hamas to “recover and obtain new missiles.”
The differing attitudes make the exchange all the more important as Türkiye enjoys pivotal relations with Ukraine, Russia and Iran as a geopolitical interlocutor and the easternmost NATO member.
It also highlights Europe’s diminishing influence compared to Türkiye’s increasing sway in the emerging multipolar order across the Middle East.
But the EU's anger over Ankara’s anti-Israel stance is weighing on Türkiye’s candidacy for eventual membership. Several member states are already openly opposed to Turkish accession, which has been essentially frozen since 2005.
And the Gaza conflict isn’t the only sticking point for the uneasy sides.
Türkiye is an important factor in a whole range of issues, according to German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit.
The aim was to make progress on these issues. Under the current circumstances, the visit will be "challenging."
Ankara and Berlin are important partners in politics and business. Around 3 million Turks live in Germany, more than anywhere else outside of Türkiye. Erdoğan enjoys extensive support from Turkish Germans.
A sour outcome from the visit, as well as differing views on other issues, could further erode trust and throw off recent efforts to revive Türkiye-EU relations and the accession bid, which Erdoğan has said Türkiye might reconsider altogether.
The Turkish-EU relationship's transactional nature deepened after the two sides agreed on a deal in 2016 under which the EU gave billions of euros to Ankara to stop migrants coming to Europe at the height of the 2015 refugee crisis.
Scholz reiterated the need to “revive, continue and develop” the deal following a meeting with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Berlin on Tuesday.
The chancellor said he recognized that Türkiye has taken in a large number of refugees and needs to be supported. But cooperation at the sea and land borders of Greece and Türkiye needs to be more effective, he said.
The EU also fears a fresh influx of Palestinian refugees as Israeli strikes have reduced dozens of Gaza neighborhoods to rubble and internally displaced almost 1.6 million people – about two-thirds of Gaza's population – since Oct. 7.
After the Turkish elections in May, EU leaders revived hopes for improvement and a report on possible development is due in December but experts and EU officials warn against expecting any real improvement.
Since the Israeli campaign on Gaza began on Oct. 7, Erdoğan has spoken with 27 world leaders, including U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Palestinian and Israeli Presidents Mahmoud Abbas and Isaac Herzog, as well as other region’s prime ministers and presidents in the past month.
All countries should raise their voices for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, Erdoğan stressed in these contacts, highlighting that the current conflict had become a threat to world peace.
He is also expected to visit Algeria on Nov. 21 to talk to his counterpart Abdelmadjid Tebboune on the Gaza crisis.
Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi, too, is scheduled to visit Türkiye on Nov. 28.
