The past month saw a series of significant contacts and meetings between Türkiye and Greece as the two Mediterranean neighbors are on a track to build constructive and positive relations despite their disagreements.
Cautious optimism should be our keyword for the upcoming process.
This week, Turkish and Greek delegations met in Türkiye to hold the fourth “military confidence-building measures” meeting in which it was decided that a point of contact mechanism be established to apply the confidence-building measures. The next meeting, which aims to increase cooperation and security regarding naval and air operations, will be held in Greece.
Moreover, on Oct.17, the Greek and Turkish deputy foreign ministers met in Athens for a positive agenda dialogue while a high-level cooperation council with the participation of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is set for Dec. 7 in Thessaloniki, northern Greece.
This is not the first time the two countries’ leaders and officials have exchanged words of goodwill and voiced prospects for increased cooperation. History is full of examples in which the two countries had their ups and downs, entering periods of detente as well as tensions and rivalry.
What is vital to continue the positive atmosphere is to compartmentalize areas of bilateral interest. In the first stage, the deep-rooted issues of contest need to be set aside while focusing on those areas where cooperation is easier. Cooperation in fighting terrorism, especially groups such as the PKK, the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP-C) and the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), which tend to seek refuge in Europe by trying to cross from Türkiye to Greece, could be one of these areas.
Another issue begging for increased cooperation is curbing irregular migration. Enhanced cooperation in this area would be timely as the European Commission last month presented a list of measures to reduce irregular migration along the Eastern Mediterranean route. In 2022, irregular border crossings along the Eastern Mediterranean migration route more than doubled compared to the previous year.
In Greece, the number of irregular migrants has risen again this year. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), around 38,500 migrants had traveled from Türkiye to Greece, and thus to the EU, by the beginning of November. This compares to around 18,700 people in the previous year as a whole.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis voiced this week that he is supporting Brussels' efforts to revive the refugee agreement between Türkiye and the European Union.
It has to be accepted that key points of controversy will remain, namely the threat of extending Greek territorial waters beyond their present width of 6 miles, the remilitarization of the eastern Aegean Islands under demilitarized status, Athens’ claim of a 10-mile "national air space" over territorial waters, abuse of the FIR responsibility as well as disagreement on how to solve the Cyprus question in which Türkiye advocates a two-state solution. Most of these problems are rooted in the different interpretations of international agreements and cause friction from time to time as was seen in 2020 when the two countries came to the brink of war in the Eastern Mediterranean due to competing claims in the region and its natural reserves.
It was “disaster diplomacy” that seemingly turned the tide in relations, with both countries offering condolences to each other after the Feb. 6 earthquakes in southern Türkiye and a deadly train crash in Greece. A meeting between Erdoğan and Mitsotakis further helped relations gain momentum after a lull.
Yet, besides the solidarity acts vis-a-vis the disasters, it was regional dynamics that helped bring the two actors to the table once again. Aggressive rhetoric and tensions in the region coincided with a period in which Türkiye was isolated from the Eastern Mediterranean, with Greece, the Greek Cypriot administration, Israel and Egypt getting closer. Ankara had ruptured ties with Israel and Egypt due to regional conflicts and problems while disagreements continued with the Greek Cypriot administration and Greece. The maritime deal it struck with Libya had been an effort to up the ante.
However, Türkiye recently mending ties with Egypt and reestablishing diplomatic relations with Israel strengthened Ankara’s hand, shifting the balance in the Mediterranean. Türkiye no longer feels encircled by the quartet and was itself negotiating new energy deals and cooperation with Israel – currently halted due to the Gaza conflict.
An equal balance in the Eastern Mediterranean and new positive momentum must be caught by the two neighbors. Besides focusing on such areas of mutual interest, it is vital that channels of communication remain open and problems be solved based on mutual respect for sovereignties and security concerns. A long-term approach will be essential to bring cooperation and trust back and deal with the disputes on air and sea limitations thereafter.
