The main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP), has entered a period of change since the March 31 local elections and will make further significant decisions on its party charter during its congress in September.

After the CHP won most major cities and made big gains in the country’s rural heartland in the local elections, surpassing the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) share of the popular vote for the first time in more than two decades, both parties engaged in soul searching while trying to understand the evolving demands of voters.

The main opposition saw the first major change after last year’s general election when Özgur Özel was elected chair of the party last November, ending the decadeslong rule of its previous chair, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The urge for change consolidated after March 31.

Now, the party looks to a vital party congress, which will convene between Sept. 6-9 in the capital Ankara, to further democratize and set a new strategy toward the 2028 general elections. The agenda for amendments in the party charter includes proposals such as imposing a three-term limit for deputies and mayors, determining the conditions for preliminary elections, convening congresses and conventions every three years instead of two, or increasing the number of party assembly members, which currently stand at 60.

The congress can be interpreted as an inward-looking convention since it will likely not include a chairperson election, political scientist Tanju Tosun told Daily Sabah. "This means that the new charter mostly concerns the party's public opinion, the professionals of the party and the party base. The base expects the congress to adopt a democratic charter enabling interparty processes – from decision-taking to nomination – to be pluralist and participatory."

He elaborated that for circles following the developments within the CHP, the congress will be important in seeing whether the party and its elites are sincere in renewing the internal structure, procedures and democratization. "Thus, the congress will be a test of the sincerity of the elites for both people within the party and those watching outside."

Warning that the congress will not guarantee democratic institutionalization of the CHP’s internal structure in one go, Tosun underlined that "institutionalization is a process."

"Although desired by the elite, change in structures and institutions such as political parties is not always simple since there is always resistance to preserve the top-to-bottom status quo," he highlighted further.

Post-March 31

Speaking to Daily Sabah, ex-minister and former CHP deputy Mehmet Sevigen described the transformations the CHP has undergone over the years, saying that during the time of former CHP Chairperson Deniz Baykal, the party adopted a more nationalist stance.

"Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu afterward attempted to change the party, accusing those close to Baykal of following a nationalist stance similar to that of the MHP, whereas one of the arrows of the CHP’s logo actually represents nationalism. He instead aimed to pull the party closer to the HDP. He distanced the party from its core values and line," Sevigen said.

The party is once again at such a threshold. The new chairperson has the opportunity to restructure the party with the winds of success of March 31 and the positive atmosphere among its voter base. Recent polls suggest that an upward trend is ongoing in the CHP.

Meanwhile, Özel’s attempt to change one of the logo’s arrows to the colors of green and purple would be interpreted as following Kılıçdaroğlu’s steps, Sevigen added warily. Green and purple are the colors of the Green Left Party (YSP) logo, a successor of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). The statement had caused an uproar.

On the other side, he lauded the approach adopted by the CHP and the AK Party to normalize their dialogue.

"With the new period that started through the March 31 elections, I think that the CHP started to prefer responsible politics in its leadership style, policy-making quality and political discourse that is directed at all circles of voters," Tosun said. "With responsible politics, I refer to a political position that listens to the demands of voters, whether from its own base or not, that takes these demands, carries them to the system and holds dialogue channels with the ruling party open for their solution."

He said that the CHP realized that the lack of dialogue between the ruling party and the opposition as well as the political polarization in the country have exhausted voters. "This has been welcomed by the public."

The Turkish people, with the local elections, tried to reach a balance by giving the general elections to the AK Party and the local ones to the opposition, Sevigen said. He further indicated that the CHP’s success was in part caused by the setback of the AK Party. "The economic crisis, cadre and the fact that AK Party deputies lost their ties to the public were influential in today’s picture."

"The CHP has to put forth and voice with which cadres and which project it aims to win the 2028 elections and rule the country. It has to determine policies in fields such as agriculture, economy or foreign affairs. Only if it does this and reaches hierarchy, stability and discipline can it become the ruling party in the upcoming elections – otherwise, the public opinion will turn again to the AK Party to do the job," he added. "Whoever manages to convince the public will win the elections," Sevigen said, dwelling on the possibility of early elections.

Plurality of actors

Sevigen further pointed to another problem, which is caused by the ambiguity prompted by several prominent actors within the CHP, namely, Özel, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, Ankara Mayor Mansu Yavaş and even Kılıçdaroğlu. Imamoğlu and Yavaş were seen as potential presidential candidates in the 2023 elections, while the Istanbul mayor is endorsed by some circles as the candidate for 2028. Meanwhile, frequent political statements by Kılıçdaroğlu, who was expected to leave politics after losing the CHP chairmanship, have caused discussions on whether he aims to make a comeback.

Saying that he does not sense significant tensions between Özel and Imamoğlu – two actors that will play a role in the CHP in the upcoming period, Tosun added: "As far as I could observe, Özel has positioned himself as an actor that manages interparty procedures and represents the party outside. Imamoğlu, on the other hand, follows a strategy to strengthen his national legitimacy that includes the mayoral office of Istanbul and stretches toward presidential candidacy."

He said while it cannot be labeled "tension," an emotional gap can be felt between supporters of Kılıçdaroğlu and Imamoğlu among deputies and party members.

On Kılıçdaroğlu’s potential comeback, Tosun reiterated that the former chairperson led the party for 15 years and played a vital role. "However, the last congress has enabled young and new party elites to influence the CHP’s administration. I believe that Kılıçdaroğlu is aware of this fact and will not make a mistake such as entering a leadership race within the party."

What he needs to do, Tosun reckoned, is to contribute to the party with his knowledge and experience as an inclusive former chair.

Normalization as a strategy

Besides internal restructuring and renewal both within the AK Party and the CHP after the elections, Türkiye also saw a thaw in their ties toward each other.

"I highly supported normalization," Sevigen said, adding that it brought advantages to both. "Both try to consolidate their bases. The AK Party is trying to gain time to fix the economy and other problems, and Özel tries to show through the newly won local administrations that the CHP can rule the country."

Similarly, Tosun also said that the normalization process benefitted both as well as Turkish politics itself. Indicating the exhaustion rooted in polarization among voters, he said that highly politicized politicians who cannot come together for dialogue are a bad role model for the public.

"Normalization, first of all, will lead to cracking the negative perception of polarized voters against each other. Normalization is strengthening the center of politics, while polarization only strengthens the extreme poles and centrifugal forces, which benefits neither the CHP nor the AK Party," Tosun said. "This process has especially been a welcomed strategy for the CHP in that it increases the tendency of voters of different bases to vote for the CHP."

It seems that Turkish politics has entered a new era after March. The AK Party will struggle to make up for its past wrongs and the economy, while the CHP will try to take advantage of the success winds all the way through to 2028. For the first time in years, the AK Party has not been the sole actor in politics but faces a rival in a changing CHP and changing voter base made up of the new generation of youth. The rhetoric, promises as well as actions of both the ruling party and the opposition will be closely followed by the public who will then decide to whom the country’s rule can be entrusted in 2028 – or even closer.