A visit by Nechirvan Barzani, president of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), to Ankara, is not an uncommon event – yet the timing of this trip is telling.
As Türkiye and the Middle East are grappling with new challenges, Barzani and Erdoğan discussed several vital issues and displayed the continuation of close ties as well as coordination of policies between Ankara and Irbil. Amid the many topics, the two leaders especially focused on four main agenda items – the conflict in the region, the Iraqi Development Road Project, upcoming parliamentary elections in the KRG, as well as new circumstances within Turkish politics on the Kurdish issue.
The Middle East is boiling. What started as a conflict between the Palestinian movement Hamas and Israel has now spread to Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Iran and Yemen, among others. With Iran and Israel having started to exchange direct fire and more expected to come, Türkiye is alarmed by the consequences. In a statement issued by the Directorate of Communications following the Erdoğan-Barzani talks, it said that Erdoğan pointed out the escalation in Israeli aggression and the potential risk it poses for the emergence of an all-out war zone in the region. Indeed, Ankara has been rattled by the prospect of maximum pressure on Iran by both Israel and its Western backers. "A case in which Iran, which is already grappling with internal unrest, descends into greater turmoil, is an undesirable scenario. Social fault lines caused by different ethnic groups and growing discontent against the regime put Iran in a fragile situation. Ankara’s concerns include that greater escalation with Israel could cause a migration wave from Iran, while its Kurdish population gaining any kind of autonomy would also be destabilizing," said Mehmet Alaca, an academic researcher focusing on Iraq.
The KRG’s stability here is seen as vital, he elaborated. "The fact that Iran and the KRG share a long border, that Tehran supports the Talabanis over the Barzanis, carries out attacks on Irbil claiming that it hosts Israeli bases and that the KRG is Türkiye's door to Iraq, connects a further escalation with the interests of Türkiye and Iraq."
He said that the shared concern is that this kind of escalation would draw Iraq directly into the conflict. "The Baghdad central government is working to hinder the escalating rhetoric of Iran-aligned militias in Iraq toward Israel. The ability of Barzani, who is known for his conciliatory character in the region, to talk with actors in Baghdad is therefore vital in this background."
Elections closely monitored
Another issue that was discussed and which Türkiye is following closely are elections in the KRG scheduled for Sunday. For some time now, a fierce rivalry has been going on between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by the Barzani family and supported by Ankara, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by the Talabani family. "Ankara does attach importance to the KDP not weakening and staying strong due to wide-ranging cooperation from trade to investment to oil partnership in place with the current government as well as the fact that the PUK has suspicious ties with the PKK terrorist organization. Its leader Bafel Talabani’s routine anti-Türkiye statements add insult to injury," according to Bilgay Duman, coordinator of Iraq Studies for the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM).
On the other hand, the situation of the Turkmen population and their political status in the KRG are also of importance to Ankara. Parties will race for 100 parliamentary seats while the quota for minorities, which was 11 until recently, has been reduced to five, two of which are reserved for Turkmen and three for other minorities. This decision by the Iraqi federal court has been harshly criticized for disadvantaging the Turkmen and the developments were again of close concern for Ankara. During the meeting, Erdoğan touched upon the state of the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITC). Moreover, it is the first time the ITC also participated in the elections outside the quota, Duman reiterated.
A road without the KRG
The Development Road Project, which in its latest version has excluded the KRG, was another essential topic. Türkiye and the Iraqi government put a strong emphasis on the megaproject, which is expected to boost bilateral as well as regional trade and contribute to regional welfare and stability. With the eradication of the PKK terrorism threat and the establishment of security in the country, it bears great potential. The KRG, on the other hand, has often lamented that the road does not cross directly via the autonomous region. However, Erdoğan on Wednesday again underlined to Barzani that the project will "benefit the KRG in every aspect as well." It needs to be remembered that Erdoğan, in February during his visit to Iraq and the KRG, similarly voiced that Irbil has sensitivities regarding the project, showing his willingness to not exclude or offend the KRG.
New political developments
Lastly, Barzani’s visit coincides with significant and new developments within Türkiye on the Kurdish issue. Calls for dialogue and a softening in politics have been raised by the ruling coalition against the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) – which has been widely shunned – and a series of talks have been taking place. Devlet Bahçeli, chair of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a major ally of the government, has even called on Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the PKK terrorist group, to "announce the end of terrorism and close down the organization."
The Barzani family is viewed with sympathy by a significant group of conservative Kurds in Türkiye, Alaca pointed out. When Ankara launched the Kurdish peace process – but which did not achieve the intended result – in 2010-15, the views and support of KDP leader Masoud Barzani were sought. The leaders of the KRG then took on the responsibility in terms of conciliation. What is more, Masoud Barzani visited eastern Diyarbakır province in 2013 as the official guest of then-Prime Minister Erdoğan and said, "We support the peace process with all our means," during the rally held there. "With this backdrop and the strong relations achieved currently, it is possible that the Barzani family will play a similar role. Irbil itself would not shy from such a role to both strengthen its image vis-a-vis the Kurdish population in the region and due to the potential that it could lead to a disarmament of the PKK, which is also a significant nuisance for the KRG," he concluded.