The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, which has had repercussions for the region, the U.S. and Europe, as well as their relations with Moscow, is entering its second year this week. Being one of the few regional countries that managed to uphold an impartial stance, Türkiye will, in the upcoming period, again intensify efforts to reach a peace settlement.
Single countries have increasingly become prominent in engaging in efforts to uphold the balance in the international system as well as conflict management as the United Nations Security Council is being paralyzed by its permanent members. The rivalry between these members has long rendered the council dysfunctional – an argument that Türkiye has been advocating for years, saying that the body must be more representative and include countries from the African continent, as well as the Muslim community. G-20 term chair Brazil’s call and motto for a more equitable governance model reflects the fact that other countries are echoing Ankara’s sentiment while regional organizations have also increased their voice.
This year, Türkiye will continue its mediator role for both the crisis in the Middle East as well as the Ukraine-Russia war. Two years ago, it was the first and sole country to bring the foreign ministers of the two warring countries together in a breakthrough in Antalya. It also facilitated a grain initiative to help prevent a global food crisis. Located in a strategic position, Ankara also follows the provisions of the 1936 Montreux Convention that gives Türkiye the authority to restrict the passage of naval vessels through the Turkish Straits during times of war, while also conducting Black Sea demining operations to enable shipping in the region.
Currently, Türkiye is continuing its contact with both sides to bring the two countries back to diplomacy and negotiate a solution. Yet Ankara’s task is intricate as the more time passes, the more difficult it becomes to reach a political solution to the problem. Both sides are engaged in aggression on the field and the West is pledging more financial and military aid for Kyiv. Ankara’s stance will continue to advocate that Moscow must not be isolated as dialogue is vital for peace while discouraging intense military aid for Ukraine, arguing it could prolong the war. For the upcoming process, Türkiye is likely to use its famed “leader diplomacy” in which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself, beside the Turkish diplomatic corps, engages in talks with the Russian and Ukrainian presidents to convince the two to take steps toward potential cease-fires and a peace solution.
Within this scope, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Türkiye following the March 31 local elections. The Russian leader was to come this month, but his visit got delayed. Sources told Daily Sabah that the cancellation was due to security concerns voiced by the Russian side, although “the Turkish side did not view these potential threats as credible.”
Coordination with the U.S. also intensified recently. Much contact has taken place between Ankara and Washington, including a visit by U.S. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, frequent phone calls and meetings between the Turkish and U.S. foreign ministers as well as a visit of U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Murphy. With the Israeli-Palestinian crisis ongoing, Washington may discuss with Türkiye that Ankara steps up its efforts for Ukraine using dialogue with Russia. Türkiye appointing experienced career diplomat and former Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Önal as ambassador to Washington will also likely contribute to the partnership.
Most recently, U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye Jeff Flake reflected on this policy saying: “We look to Türkiye to use its influence, historic ties and economic muscle in many corners of the world, as Türkiye is unique in its ability to open conversations with our adversaries in ways and in places we simply cannot.” Flake added that “since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Türkiye has been unflinching in its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Its commercial sales of highly effective drones to Ukraine frustrated Moscow’s early ambitions for its full-scale invasion in 2022 and continue to undermine Russia’s war effort.”
All in all, it can be seen that the West, unable to answer the increasing number of regional crises across the globe, will expand coordination with Türkiye in both Gaza and Ukraine. We will see an enhanced focus on global diplomacy by Ankara, especially following the local elections, and will see an increase in the president’s foreign visits and contacts. Underlining its commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, it will continue to strive to reach a fair peace that will contribute to the stability of countries in the Black Sea basin, including itself.
