Syrian nationals in Türkiye are heading to the south to border crossings with their homeland in the aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime, which caused their displacement. Experts say though crowds amassed at the crossings, only half, nearly 3 million refugees, may opt to return to post-Assad Syria.

Experts note that reverse migration can only accelerate if absolute political and economic stability is maintained in Syria. They assess that young men among refugees will be the first to return home, and families may leave en masse if economic stability is achieved.

"We have no one here. We are going back to Latakia, where we have family," said Mustafa as he prepared to enter Syria with his wife and three sons at the Cilvegözü border gate in southern Türkiye. Dozens more Syrians were waiting to cross on Wednesday.

Mustafa fled Syria in 2012, a year after the conflict there began, to escape conscription into Assad's army. For years, he did unregistered jobs in Türkiye, earning less than the minimum wage.

"Now there's a better Syria. God willing, we will have a better life there," he said, expressing confidence in the new leadership in Syria as he watched over the family's belongings, clothes packed into sacks and a television set.

Authorities have extended the opening hours of the Cilvegözü border gate while a second border gate was opened at nearby Yayladağı in Hatay on Tuesday.

Around 350-400 Syrians a day were already crossing back to areas of Syria controlled by anti-regime forces this year before the lightning offensive that brought an end to the Baathist regime began two weeks ago. The numbers have almost doubled since, Ankara says, anticipating a surge now Assad has gone. Around 100 trucks were waiting to cross the border, carrying goods, including dozens of used cars. Security forces helped manage the flow of people while aid groups offered snacks to children and tea and soup to adults.

Professor Deniz Sert, who chairs the board of a migration research association, told Sabah newspaper on Wednesday that regime change is an emotional turning point for many. Sert says people up to age 18 make up about 1.5 million population of Syrian refugees in Türkiye. "In the short run, we project that particularly young men who work in unregistered jobs will return. It will be difficult for about 800,000 children between the ages of 5 and 14 to begin schooling here in Türkiye. They will have to reintegrate themselves into a new life in Syria. I think families who set up new lives here will wait a bit longer to decide on returning to Syria," Sert said.

Dua, mother of three children, including a baby, is originally from Aleppo and has been living in Türkiye for nine years. She worked in textile workshops and packaging in Bursa in northwestern Türkiye but is now returning to Syria due to her husband's deportation.

"I'm going back for my husband. He didn't have an ID and was deported when I was eight months pregnant. I can't manage on my own, so I need to return," she said. "My husband hasn't even met our baby yet. I was born and raised in Aleppo and will raise my children there, too."

Elsewhere, Haya was waiting to enter Syria with her husband and three children. They have lived in a nearby container camp since devastating earthquakes in February 2023 killed more than 50,000 people in Türkiye and Syria. "We had good neighbors and good relations, but a container is not a home," Haya said as she comforted her six-month-old baby, and her daughter translated her comments from Arabic.

Syria's new interim prime minister has said he aimed to bring back millions of Syrian refugees, protect all citizens and provide basic services but acknowledged it would be difficult because the country, long under sanctions, lacks foreign currency.

Mustafa voiced confidence in the new leadership. "Those who have taken power are no strangers. They didn't come from the United States or Russia. They are our own people. We know them," he said.

Professor Irfan Kaya Ülger, an international relations expert, told Sabah that young men would be the largest group of refugees to return to Syria. "They may want to take up new opportunities in Syria. Once they settle back there, they will likely bring their families from Türkiye. We are going through a phase of uncertainty in Syria, and it may take up to two years. But if this process is managed well, at least half of Syrian refugees here will return," Ülger said.