European Union did not change much in its stance toward Türkiye. Türkiye, nevertheless, sped up the process for progress in accession talks before relations, at least on a political level, deteriorated.

When figures in the EU talk about the new members that might join the union by 2030, there is no mention of Türkiye. It is a glaring omission noticed by Ankara.

When the European Union published its annual reports on candidate countries' progress toward EU norms on Wednesday, all eyes will be on Ukraine and Moldova.

Türkiye, a formal candidate for membership since 1999, will barely be discussed, but it wasn't always the case. After EU leaders approved the start of accession talks with Türkiye in 2004, the then-British premier Tony Blair hailed it as a historic event showing no clash of civilizations. But European leaders at the time found themselves stuck in a tussle with Ankara over the divided island of Cyprus. This crisis proved to be only a foretaste of the turbulent relationship. Today, ties are more transactional than a path toward partnership, even if neither side will openly admit this. Experts nevertheless still point to limited areas in which the relationship can improve.

For many EU member states, the long-stalled accession talks are dead in all but name. In September, Austria, long opposed to Türkiye's membership, even called for the process to end.

EU officials privately say this would be more honest, but no one wants to make the first move.

After the Turkish elections in May, EU leaders revived hopes for improvement. They ordered the EU's executive arm and its foreign policy chief to prepare a report on how to develop the relationship. The report is due before December's next summit gathering of EU leaders, but experts and EU officials warn against expecting any real improvement in ties.

"I'm not expecting any meaningful revitalization of the relationship because there are limited areas where progress can really be made," said Senem Aydın-Düzgit, an international relations professor at Istanbul's Sabancı University.

There is "Turkish fatigue" in Europe, as Austria's comments show, said the European Parliament's Türkiye rapporteur, Nacho Sanchez Amor. "We are tired of maintaining the accession process alive when apparently there is no real political will from the other side to advance on democratic standards," the MEP said. Amor was behind what Türkiye called a one-sided, unobjective report by the European Parliament that dealt a blow to relations.

Commenting on the report, Turkish Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç has criticized the writing of the report "under the influences of some marginalized circles, as we have seen frequently in EU circles in recent years." Tunç was referring to usual lobbies adversary to Türkiye's accession bid, from groups endorsing the terrorist groups targeting Türkiye to those opposing a fair solution to the Cyprus question where the Turkish Cypriot side of the island is not recognized and any efforts for a two-state solution is quashed.

The Turkish-EU relationship's transactional nature deepened after the two sides agreed on a deal in 2016 under which the EU threw billions of euros at Ankara to stop migrants coming to Europe after the 2015 refugee crisis.

"Transactional is not a derogatory term," Amor said. "Don't mix the accession process, which has its own rules based on values and principles, with the rest of the relationship." The report due later this year will likely recommend updating the customs union, for which Türkiye's trade minister was in Brussels in October to drum up support.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned in September that Türkiye could "part ways with the EU if necessary" after the scathing report by the bloc, just two months after Erdoğan voiced Türkiye's willingness to revive the membership bid.

Turkish ambassador to the EU reaffirmed commitment to accession but acknowledged it would not be easy. "The Turkish government is committed to EU membership," said Faruk Kaymakcı. "What we expect is equal treatment among candidate countries."

Many observers and Turks seek clarity, while others argue the nail was firmly in the coffin when then-French president Nicolas Sarkozy and former German chancellor Angela Merkel together came out against Türkiye's membership in 2009. Also, in its biggest defender Britain left the EU in a setback for Türkiye,

There is, however, pressure from the United States not to end accession negotiations, an EU official said, with Washington desperate to keep Türkiye out of Russia's arms and closer to the West amid Moscow's attack on Ukraine. Brussels now faces a bigger dilemma about Ukraine's future membership and the challenges and opportunities its accession would bring. One that some say blows any chance of Türkiye's membership.

"Ukraine's membership would change the EU, and it could not take on another member like Türkiye," the official told Agence France-Presse (AFP).