As Türkiye prepares for important elections, Istanbul, the country's largest city and economic hub, is in the spotlight. Winning the elections in the city is not only a political victory but also a way to secure a stronghold that can greatly influence the nation's political landscape. The city's strategic significance lies in its economic, social and historical significance, making it a coveted prize for political parties competing for power.

Recapturing Istanbul on March 31 has become President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's top priority ever since losing the metropolis to the opposition in 2019.

In 2019, Ekrem Imamoğlu of the Nation Alliance, led by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), won the majority for the city's mayorship.

The Nation Alliance, however, collapsed in the postelection process, while the People's Alliance, led by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and main ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has remained united and even more consolidated.

In the previous elections, the AK Party lost control of not only Istanbul but also another strategic city, the capital Ankara, for the first time in 25 years, as well as some five megacities to the CHP. Therefore, the Sunday vote is so critical for the People's Alliance.

However, Istanbul is more than just a city; it's a microcosm of Türkiye itself. With a population of around 16 million, it is a melting pot of diverse cultures, ideologies and socio-economic backgrounds. Erdoğan's route to Türkiye's presidency was also launched in this city, where he was elected mayor in 1994. His allies held the city until Imamoğlu wrested control. That is why the president gives a different meaning to the metropolis where he was born and raised.

For example, as soon as he clinched reelection as president last May, Erdoğan launched the campaign to reclaim the city. "Are we ready to win back Istanbul?" he had asked an enthusiastic crowd while perched on a bus in front of his residence.

At a rally in the city a week before the elections, he said, "Istanbul is the jewel, the treasure and the apple of our country's eye," showing his ambitious willingness to win.

The Turkish president named former environment minister Murat Kurum as his mayoral candidate, entrusting him to reconquer Istanbul and consolidate his power.

Who is Kurum?

Forty-seven-year-old Kurum served as the minister from 2018 until May 2023, when he was elected to Parliament as a lawmaker for Istanbul.

His background as an urban planner and professional training fit with Erdoğan's claims that Istanbul has become rundown and dysfunctional under opposition control.

An Ankara native, Kurum is a civil engineer by training and the son of a father who worked in the same ministry he led for years. Specializing in urban transformation at university, Kurum's tenure, if he wins, will come when the government announces a massive overhaul of the city's building stock to make it sturdier against disasters.

He is credited with spearheading the government's efforts to transform cities with better buildings and rebuilding in areas already affected by earthquakes, such as 10 provinces devastated by the February earthquakes last year.

Critics accuse the incumbent mayor, Imamoğlu, of a string of failures stemming from lingering problems such as urban planning, crisis management and traffic.

At a recent rally, Kurum said: "Istanbul has undergone an interregnum under an unskillful, incapable and lazy administration. The city suffers every day and unfortunately, this precious city is being wasted day by day in the hands of a handful of ignorant people."

Imamoğlu has denied Kurum's claims on every occasion.

In Istanbul, the AK Party's campaign theme has been particularly urban transformation, an ambitious nationwide project to replace crumbling old buildings with new ones. Istanbul is among the cities at imminent risk of earthquakes, and Türkiye has stepped up efforts to speed up the transformation project after the devastating Feb. 6 quakes.

Seven locations will have emergency coordination centers, including at all three Istanbul airports, Kurum added, to operate in line with land, air and naval routes during times of disaster.

Meanwhile, according to recent polls from six survey companies, Kurum and Imamoğlu are neck and neck.

Traffic, transportation

Imamoğlu, on top of fighting a lawsuit that could ban him from politics for good, has also been facing an onslaught of criticism over increasing incidents, accidents and breakdowns in public transportation vehicles affiliated with his office, the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB).

Traffic congestion has become a major source of discontent, with residents facing prolonged commutes and seeking practical solutions to ease daily travel. The existing public transportation network, designed to alleviate congestion, is perceived as falling short of meeting the needs of Istanbul's expanding population.

"We promise an Istanbul that transports, not troubles," Kurum recently said, pointing out that Istanbulites annually lose 288 hours in traffic, which he noted has surged to 64% since 2019.

If he wins, the AK Party candidate will expand the city's highways to 48% and railways to 48% by 2034, which would ease the congestions that pile up on main routes and reduce the average commuting time from 64 minutes to 34 minutes.

Istanbul's metro network, too, would be extended from its current 328 kilometers (203.81 miles) to 650 kilometers by 2029 and ultimately 1,004 kilometers by 2034.

Kurum is also looking to relocate two major bus terminals to the peripheries of Istanbul to ease intracity traffic, extend the Metrobus line system from far-flung Beylikdüzü on the European side to Kadıköy on the Asian side, and construct a parking lot that can accommodate up to 250,000 vehicles, with a 25% discount on fees.

Kurum's other pledges included sustainable social support in recruitment processes for newlyweds, incentives for startups and students, as well as kindergartners in every neighborhood, new water purification facilities and green spaces like parks and cafes across the city.

Economic significance

As the economic heart of Türkiye, Istanbul contributes significantly to the country's gross domestic product (GDP), making it a key player in shaping national economic policies. It drives economic growth and development in the country. The city has a thriving business community, including major corporations, financial institutions, and startups. Winning the elections in Istanbul means gaining access to this economic powerhouse, enabling political parties to implement their economic agendas and policies.

Istanbul's rich cultural and historical heritage adds to its allure. The city's iconic landmarks, such as the Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque and the Blue Mosque, attract millions of tourists each year, contributing to its vibrant tourism industry.

Istanbul has more than 10.5 million eligible voters, according to figures from the Supreme Election Council (YSK) released before last May's general and presidential elections.

At every campaign and rally, Erdoğan and Kurum underlined that the city "doesn't have the patience to lose five more years," while their main rival, Imamoğlu, believes he hasn't lost his popularity among voters.

CHP is in trouble

Compared to the last election, however, experts say Imamoğlu is likely to suffer from the collapse of the Nation Alliance. Since the last election, Imamoğlu's party, CHP, has been abandoned by former allies who submitted their own candidates in the local polls, notably the nationalist Good Party (IP) and the Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) and a successor of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), broadly known for its ties to the PKK terrorist group.

This could cost the CHP Istanbul, as well as the capital Ankara and even other metropolitan cities.

There are internal crises CHP is facing, which can have a negative impact on Imamoğlu's run, experts also claim.

Since current CHP Chair Özgür Özel took over in a November 2023 vote with Imamoğlu's backing, the party has been overrun with internal feuds, namely mayoral candidate positions. This highlights a risk of losing all public favor if the CHP loses another key vote next Sunday, frustrating supporters already fed up with back-to-back election defeats.

But the CHP is also accused of clandestinely divvying up mayoral districts for YSP candidates in Istanbul in exchange for the YSP's indirect endorsement of Imamoğlu, something Erdoğan often describes as a "dirty alliance."

There's also a recent potential bribery scandal that rocked the main opposition party.

Turkish prosecutors are probing a controversial video showing three CHP officials counting piles of cash, allegedly TL 15 million ($470,000), at the party's Istanbul branch, which critics claimed was used to "buy" delegates in favor of Özel against former Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu during the November intraparty vote.

The CHP denied the allegations, saying the money was for the purchase of the branch's new building in Istanbul in 2019, and the footage was from the camera of the office of a lawyer representing the property owner. The party blamed the lawyer for leaking the footage and insisted that the said lawyer tried to blackmail the party, though the footage did not have any "criminal actions."

Imamoğlu himself dismissed the claims that money was used for any nefarious purpose and said the video surfaced as an attempt by his adversaries looking to "bring him down before the election."

Slamming the party for failing to produce a logical or satisfying explanation for the scandal, Erdoğan said, "They have dirtied our politics with their schemes, but we will not leave Istanbul into their hands."

"They can keep chasing their self-serving interests. We will be standing firmly at the beck and call of our people," he said.

The upcoming election will test popular support for all competing sides. The AK Party, which has more than 11 million members nationwide, aims to concentrate its program on strategically key provinces, particularly by assigning small groups to make house calls to establish face-to-face communication.

More than 61 million people are eligible to vote, and 1 million young voters will cast their ballots for the first time in this election. More than 50% of the voters are women, while men make up 49.1% of the electorate, according to the statistics. More than 3.3 million of voters are aged 75 and above. Most of the electorate is in 30 big cities, while more than 13.5 million voters will cast their ballots in 51 other cities.