Having seen a significant drop in voter support in the March 31 local elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is quickly mobilizing to probe the causes that led to the loss of key constituencies it previously held across Türkiye.

In his first speech after the unofficial election results, in which the main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP), took 35 of Türkiye's 81 provincial capitals, including Istanbul and Ankara, against the 24 cities for the AK Party, Erdoğan acknowledged the failure to achieve success and assured his party would engage in self-criticism.

The ruling party won 74 mayoral seats in total on March 31, including for 28 metropolitan cities but it ceded 14 of the 22 cities it won in the 2019 elections, marking its first loss since 2001.

At an extensive executive board meeting days after the municipal election, Erdoğan ordered AK Party members to set up a council that will investigate and bring back to him a report outlining the causes of party’s poll loss in these cities.

"We are obliged to fix our mistakes and strengthen our ties with the Turkish people," Erdoğan said following the meeting.

Preliminary research so far has shown "economic conditions, fatigue from back-to-back elections and dissatisfaction with mayoral candidates" were the main causes of voter abstention. Turnout was particularly low for the local vote, down by almost 5 million people to 78.1% from 84.7% in 2019 and 86.9% in 2023 elections, meaning 22 out of every 100 voters didn’t go to polls.

AK Party members are now gearing up to hit the field nationwide to conduct a 40-question survey city by city, town by town, to gauge the electorate’s sentiments, Turkish newspaper Sabah said, citing insider sources.

The party also intends to focus on 22 cities in which it competed jointly with nationalist ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). The pair lost by a hair’s breadth in the western Kütahya, northern Amasya, southern Kilis and central Yozgat provinces to the CHP and the conservative New Welfare Party (YRP), which was in their People’s Alliance in the 2023 general elections.

Sources said Erdoğan, who particularly emphasized the concession, wants special focus on these four cities.

AK Party officials will ask citizens why they didn’t vote for the People’s Alliance, what their expectations are and whether they were satisfied with the performances of AK Party municipalities.

The party is also eager to know what influenced the voters to change their minds, whether it was the mayoral candidates, absenting voters, economic developments or the fact that both AK Party and the MHP nominated separate candidates in these cities instead of a single one.

Erdoğan’s party intends to use a fresh set of policies to win back resentful voters, especially youth and pensioners, many of whom were led to believe by media campaigns that a wage hike was due ahead of the election.

Party insiders have pointed to the current state of the economy and the high cost of living, which especially surged after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war, and that the living conditions of various segments of the society, including seniors who live on pensions, have deteriorated.

Erdoğan avoided "populist" rhetoric on his campaign trail and strictly adhered to the economic plan he installed after last year’s general elections. His economy team, led by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, has been working to rein in rampant inflation – currently at 68.5% – and the devaluation of Turkish lira over the past year.

Pundits argue the opposition utilized the economic conditions and high inflation to its advantage, which has influenced the voting tendencies of low-income citizens.

The CHP, however, had an additional boost from its unofficial ally, the Green Left Party (YSP) – informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) – and the shifting sentiment among supporters of former partner the Good Party (IP), after the collapse of their electoral alliance.

Pundits also don’t expect Erdoğan to act rashly and make radical turns, noting that he is likely to opt for caution as he and his party draw a new road map and avoid major changes in the short term.

With 265 seats, the AK Party remains by far the strongest force in the 598-seat Parliament, and its alliance with the MHP brings its seats to 314. However, the party lacks the numbers to revise the Constitution, something Erdoğan's government has been keen on for the past decade.

After the local elections, his party will meet with opposition parties to gauge support for a new constitution, which needs at least 400 votes to be ratified and 360 votes to go to a referendum.