As it gears up for the local elections in March next year, Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is intensifying its focus on five cities, including Istanbul, where it saw its support drop in May polls, insider sources have said.

Officials are investigating shortcomings, analyzing ballot box results and noting the expectations and demands of citizens in some 39 constituencies of Istanbul that did not vote for the ruling party.

The primary objective is to take first place in said districts by bolstering the AK Party’s bond with the people without "getting caught up in the euphoria of victory" and to "reconquer" Istanbul to echo the spirit of 1994 when AK Party Chairperson and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was first elected the city’s mayor.

Politically, Istanbul is seen as the most important administrative region in Türkiye and carries symbolic significance for Erdoğan since his time as mayor served as a launchpad for the foundation of the AK Party in 2001 and their subsequent election in 2003.

During his tenure, Erdoğan implemented key reforms that modernized Istanbul’s infrastructure and economy under what he called "service municipalism."

In the 2019 local elections, however, the AK Party lost control of Istanbul and the capital Ankara for the first time in 25 years, as well as five of Türkiye’s largest cities, to its main opposition, Republican People’s Party (CHP).

The loss was considered a blow to the AK Party’s popularity as the opposition characterized it as the "beginning of the end for Erdoğan," but both the president and his party came out victorious in May’s presidential and parliamentary elections, dealing another defeat to the CHP and its leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

The AK Party’s plan now is to give extra attention to Istanbul and the five cities, where Erdoğan said his party must "conquer the hearts of everyone and launch a rebirth of municipalism."

"We will end the interregnum that darkened our cities and revive the spirit of 1994," Erdoğan has promised.

The plan is to be shaped by a voter satisfaction survey that has been ongoing since the May elections ended. The AK Party has been asking citizens who didn’t vote for it the reason why for its analyses. It has also examined the services, projects and performances of CHP municipalities in 11 metropolitan cities, including Izmir, Antalya, Adana, Mersin, Hatay, Muğla, Tekirdağ, Eskişehir and Aydın.

Until March 2024, the party's branches will be in the field, conducting similar surveys and explaining to residents whether CHP mayors have fulfilled their pledges from 2019, as well as the key points of its own new targets for Istanbul as part of the party’s "Century of Türkiye" vision, a project seeking to celebrate the country’s centenary as a republic through innovation and development.

Dead-end crisis

The six-party opposition bloc, in the meantime, seems to be in a crisis of its own as it reels from its defeat in the latest elections and falters in preparation for the upcoming one.

Pervin Buldan, the co-chair of the pro-PKK Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which endorsed CHP contenders in both the 2019 and 2023 elections, recently announced the party would compete with its own candidate in the local elections, triggering a red alarm in the CHP as another victory in Istanbul and Ankara looks increasingly impossible.

The CHP has been drafting new strategies for its reelection in the two metropolitans and Kılıçdaroğlu is close to renegotiating with the HDP for his mayors Ekrem Imamoğlu for Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş for Ankara, sources close to the party have said.

Pressured by calls for change and his resignation over the defeat in May polls, the CHP leader could promise the HDP posts within municipalities and numerous compromises to secure their endorsement come March.

The HDP is known for its close links to the PKK terrorist group and is currently fighting a closure lawsuit over it.

Many have attributed Imamoglu’s win in 2019 to the HDP’s support, which rallied some 200,000 supporters in Istanbul for both the first round and the rerun of the controversial vote. The opposition’s second-biggest, the Good Party (IP), endorsed Imamoğlu, opting not to nominate a candidate and campaigning heavily for Imamoğlu alongside the CHP.

Under Imamoğlu, however, the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality came under fire numerous times for malpractice, especially when it was revealed that thousands of personnel were laid off to be replaced by PKK sympathizers after 2019.

While still not an official part of the Nation Alliance, the HDP once again backed Kılıçdaroğlu against Erdoğan in May polls, but since Kılıçdaroğlu was defeated and the bloc lost the parliamentary majority to the AK Party, the opposition has been in free fall with mounting backlash and criticism over poor campaigning, as well as infighting over replacing the CHP's chair.

CHP officials, including Kılıçdaroğlu, have insisted on regrouping to focus on the upcoming local vote, but trust between opposition leaders seems to have been lost.

IP Chairperson Meral Akşener, who offered Kılıçdaroğlu reluctant support during his run, was also the first to effectively throw away any chance of maintaining the Nation Alliance after the May defeat.

Following her reelection as IP chair, she condemned the idea that the HDP was the one that secured the CHP its 2019 win and declared, "We asked CHP for 15 lawmakers and it’s now my biggest regret."

Despite competing separately from the CHP in parliamentary elections, the IP suffered a disappointing 9% drop in support and could only win 40 lawmaker seats compared to the CHP’s 169.