Türkiye’s international relations, friendly and prickly alike, will be entrusted to whichever side emerges victorious from the presidential runoff this Sunday and regardless of whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or his challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu wins the election, a lot is hanging in the balance for Türkiye and neighboring regions.

In the months leading up to May 14’s landmark polls, both leaders promised fundamental changes to Türkiye’s political institutions and diplomacy, but an immediate radical shift in foreign policy is implausible because it not only risks what has been achieved so far, it would also be a cutback on what already works in the country’s favor, according to experts.

Even if Kılıçdaroğlu were to win or Erdoğan kept his seat, foreign policy would see the slightest change in Türkiye after the elections, said Mehmet Özkan, author and a foreign policy expert currently serving in the Joint War Institute and the National Defense University.

Describing the current global system at a "blatant breaking point with ad hoc changes" that don’t permit for a "normal" or "static" definition of foreign policy, Özkan argued that Türkiye has maintained "a proactive, dynamic policy in search of autonomy" and this won’t change with the administration after the runoff vote.

"Perhaps only the attitude or certain institutions becoming more active would be different, which is what the West expects," he told Daily Sabah.

For Nurşin Güney, author and expert on political science, Turkish foreign policy and security strategies, this precise ability to act independently and policy of balance with major powers in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Middle East have promoted Türkiye’s status in the international arena.

"In light of significant headway made during his rule, Erdoğan intends only to advance and develop his existing foreign policies for a Türkiye that is prepared to contribute to its own and regional prosperity," Güney also stressed.

Since Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power in 2002, Ankara took big leaps in making friends with world powers but not without ruffling some feathers. Erdoğan cultivated Türkiye into a military-industrial powerhouse controlling NATO’s second-largest army and a political mediator seeking balance and dialogue in several conflict points like Ukraine, Libya and Azerbaijan.

Thanks to its strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Türkiye has proven to be an indispensable NATO ally, most recently demonstrated in Ankara’s brokering of a vital deal that has allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea to parts of the world struggling with hunger during the ongoing Russian invasion.

After the civil war in neighboring Syria in 2011, Ankara backed opposition fighters wanting to oust Bashar Assad’s regime, even as fighting triggered a surge of refugees Türkiye welcomed. Turkish forces now also control large swaths of territory in northern Syria, where they have been cracking down on the PKK terrorist group and its local affiliate, the YPG, which is heavily backed by the United States – much to the dismay of its NATO ally.

Tensions, even with archrival Greece, at which Erdoğan’s frequent jabs over age-old Aegean issues incur Washington’s disapproval, have in recent years mellowed out, especially after February’s deadly earthquakes, forging the possibility for better relations.

As opposed to a Western world that has struggled to adapt to the post-Cold War world, Türkiye’s quick adjustment and pragmatic, far-reaching engagements so far lend it the ability to speak with everyone everywhere, Özkan further explained.

He added that discrepancies also complicate finding a dialogue between Türkiye and the West, which still operates with Cold War logic, but a common ground for mutual interest is vital.

"Erdoğan is also justified in his policies so far because states that can sustain coexistent engagements rather than clear-cut positions are bound to be successful in foreign policy and Erdoğan, as a pragmatic leader that can comfortably turn on a new leaf in relations, has achieved this," he said.

"I believe we will also see another example of this ability of his with Syria soon," Özkan quipped, referring to ongoing normalization talks between Ankara and Damascus.

On the other hand, the perception created around Erdoğan through accusations from Western nations, even Türkiye’s allies, that he is an autocrat is "a false notion," according to Güney and an attempt to turn him into an "essentially weak pariah," according to Özkan.

"If Türkiye was slipping into autocracy, Erdoğan would have won the elections with a landslide 80% and no serious opposition against him," Güney explained.

For Özkan, the West is trying to back Erdoğan into a corner through this narrative, but "they’re failing as they always have."

Despite all, Güney continued, Türkiye will remain "an undeniable geopolitical power so long as it maintains its potential because international, inter-state relations are built on interest."

"As long as Türkiye remains powerful, holds onto its willpower and strategic autonomy, no country can ignore it, including the West," Güney said and pointed out that the Turkish electorate, recognizing this in Erdoğan, will "opt for him than risk potential instability and plain uncertainty with Kılıçdaroğlu and the opposition."

In addition to promising to restore ties with the EU and the U.S., Kılıçdaroğlu has vowed to bring in foreign investment of up to $300 million (TL 6 billion) if he wins. He recently accused Russia of meddling in Turkish elections after a tape recording pushed a fourth candidate out of the presidential race days before the vote.

"To the contrary, a Kılıçdaroğlu win would mean the Turkish economy would destabilize and his gaffes so far, especially with Russia, would create problems. The West will not be opening the floodgates of loans just because it’s Kılıçdaroğlu in Ankara now," Güney said.

Özkan emphasized that the notion across the West that an opposition government in Türkiye would mean "softer" dialogue and the very opposite if Erdoğan remains in power, but he added, "If Erdoğan wins this Sunday, the West is aware they will have to work with him for five more years as they have in the past five."

Dismissing the idea of a "static and ‘normal’" relationship between Türkiye and the West, Özkan concluded, "Both sides are stronger now. Both sides have interests and shared points. Parallel to rapidly changing regional, international systems, Türkiye’s relations with other countries too are changing."