Neroz Hussein's one wish for the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye is simple: May Erdoğan win. A mother from the Kurdish-majority Ain al-Arab (Kobane) in Syria's northwest, Hussein is crystal clear about why she supports the Turkish leader, who faces the toughest election of his political career in the past two decades. "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will help us stay," Hussein said.

Since the Syrian war broke out in 2011, Türkiye has become the new home of at least 3 million people who fled the Assad regime, Russian bombardments, and attacks by terrorist groups. Most have "temporary protection" status, leaving them vulnerable to a forced return.

The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is running neck-and-neck against Erdoğan, pledges to repatriate the Syrians "within two year.s"

Neroz, 35, and her husband Adil Sheho, 38, fled to Türkiye in 2015. "Two weeks after we got married, Kobane was attacked by ISIS," Adil said, using one of the acronyms of the terrorist group Daesh. Now based in Şanlıurfa, a city 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Syrian border, the family treats Türkiye as their "second homeland," Neroz said. "Our four children were born here. They don't know Syria," Adil chipped in.

"We were well received at first, but the situation changed because of the economy," he added, referring to a cost-of-living crisis that saw annual inflation reach 85% last year, fanning anti-migrant sentiments incited by far-right groups. "Even if they don't send us back all at once, they will put pressure on us, demand papers, increase our rents and bills."

The CHP mayor of Bolu in Türkiye's northwest did just that in 2021, abolishing social aid and imposing an 11-fold hike in the water bills of Syrian refugees in his municipality. He also more than doubled their marriage registration tax. Disavowed by his party, the mayor himself eventually had to pay a fine. But the episode reflected the winds of change that have swept across Türkiye since it became the world's largest home to refugees and migrants.

Some 240,000 Syrians have obtained Turkish citizenship and the accompanying right to vote in the approaching polls, which will also elect a new Parliament. They can gain citizenship by making big investments or, like Hussein Utbah, by becoming students in sought-after fields such as electrical engineering.

Naturalized in 2020, the 27-year-old will be voting in Türkiye for the first time. But he will be the only one eligible in his family, casting his ballot for Erdoğan in the hope that his mother and five siblings will have a future in Türkiye. "My friends and I all have the same view: not only because we are Syrians, but because of what we see he has done for the country," Hussein said. Hussein also scoffed at the CHP's pledge to ensure the Syrians' "voluntary and dignified" return. "We can't go back and trust Bashar Assad," said Hussein, whose family fled Raqqa when it was taken over by Daesh in 2015.

Zara Dogbeh, a 50-year-old widower, has launched a popular Middle Eastern food catering service since arriving in 2018, the last time Türkiye had a presidential election. "We are more fearful this time. The (CHP) talks about sending us back in every speech," she said. "They are going to hunt us down on a moonless night," she sighed.

Omar Kadkoy, a researcher at Ankara's Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) think tank, called the scenario of mass repatriation "unrealistic." "Even with the end of the war in Syria, we still will have to ensure their security on the spot, because disappearances, persecutions and kidnappings continue there," Kadkoy said.

Delivering his mother's catering order on a scooter before returning to work as a security guard, Mohamed Utbah, 25, wondered why anyone would want to send him back. "We're not doing anything wrong here," he said. "We're useful to Türkiye."