The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its chair, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, have seen a rise in support, according to the latest polls conducted by the party.
The party, under Erdoğan, marks its 22nd anniversary this year. For more than two decades, it never lost an election. Erdoğan’s leadership is unparalleled in the nearly century-old history of the Republic of Türkiye as he became the longest-serving person at the upper echelons of Turkish politics, first as prime minister and now as president.
“I am seeing it at the gatherings,” Erdoğan told a recent meeting of his party, referring to the support for the party increasing “day by day.” Though he has yet to launch official election rallies, the president has attracted big crowds at the events he attended across Türkiye, from opening ceremonies of the government’s major infrastructure projects to spontaneous public meetings.
The AK Party’s surveys indicate undecided voters are increasingly turning to the party. However, two factors appear to have changed the minds of the undecided: a landmark regulation that grants early retirement for more than 2 million people and raises in minimum wage and wages of civil servants and pensioners. The other factor is the apparent loss of trust in the six-party alliance of the opposition, which often bickers among themselves.
Surveys show a three-point rise in voters for the AK Party, exceeding 41%. The rate of people who declared they would “never vote for Erdoğan” decreased to 47%, and the potential vote percentage of Erdoğan rose to 53% according to the surveys conducted four months before elections, which will likely be held in May. Erdoğan has signaled that the vote would be held on May 14, rescheduling it from mid-June.
Ahead of the elections, the public singles out the high cost of living as the most significant problem; the surveys also show that faith in the AK Party’s capability to resolve the issue also stands firm.
Surveys also indicate that the vote percentage for the “table for six” alliance is eroding over disagreements between the bloc’s members. At the same time, the perception that the nationalist Good Party (IP) was cooperating with the pro-PKK Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) appears to have caused this member of the bloc to lose support. Finally, surveys list Erdoğan’s leadership and attempted intervention of foreign powers to rein in Türkiye’s efforts to boost its international standing and global economic crisis as three main factors boosting potential votes for the AK Party.
Erdoğan is the sole candidate of the AK Party and its ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while the opposition bloc has failed to field a candidate yet, months away from elections. Most potential candidates to face Erdoğan are the leaders of a six-party alliance, mainly Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. However, other party leaders announced they could be contenders if they could garner the support of fellow bloc members, including Ali Babacan of the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA).
“If this does not happen, we can always agree upon another name. It is not like the end of the world,” Babacan recently said, adding that any “outsider” would adapt to their “system.” Even the name of former President Abdullah Gül came up in some media reports, though the opposition summarily dismissed the notion. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who raised his profile after winning the 2019 elections for the coveted seat of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) in the first significant victory for the CHP in decades, is another potential contender. In a speech earlier this week, Erdoğan said the opposition promised to field a candidate, but it would run the country with six, “even 10 people” behind the curtain.
“They want to have a puppet president they will manage. They imagine a commander-in-chief who would serve as an aide to members of the ‘table for six.’ They want voters to elect an unknown candidate without any vision or plans. We know the CHP long had this vanity, this fascist behavior, but we did not know that others have it too,” he said. He was referring to remarks by opposition bloc members that the president they would support would be required to respond to them in all critical decisions, and all heads of opposition parties may serve as vice presidents.
The 2023 elections will likely be the first time with two rounds. For Erdoğan, the elections will be “more important and historical” due to what he called the “beginning of Türkiye’s new vision, the Century of Türkiye,” a motto Erdoğan often repeats about new action plans in a wide array of fields, from defense to economy, to improve Türkiye’s standing in the international community.
“We participated in the 2002 elections as a new party to bring a new voice to politics. In the 2007 elections, we fought against tutelage and its evil plots. We emerged from the 2011 elections with the relief of fulfilling our promises to the nation. In 2015, we faced severe attacks by terrorist groups, from FETÖ (Gülenist Terror Group) to the PKK and Daesh. In 2018, we faced hesitation (of the public) in the face of a new governance system. We are heading to the 2023 elections by fighting the fallout from global crises and the ravings of a strange opposition bloc but also indulging in the sweet joy of fulfilling our promises to the nation, but above all, building our vision on an infrastructure of democracy and development we established in 20 years. Türkiye today is at a crossroads due to developments in the world and the current stage of its course of history, at a crossroads for a once-in-a-century opportunity,” he said earlier this week in an address to his party’s parliamentary group meeting.
