The Republican People's Party (CHP) is charting a new path after an unprecedented victory against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in last Sunday's municipal elections. The main opposition party held its first Central Executive Committee (MYK) meeting after the vote on Tuesday. Media outlets report that the party will abstain from calling for an early election, as some political pundits expected.

This is the CHP's first victory against the AK Party in successive municipal elections in more than two decades. The party won in 14 metropolitan municipalities, 21 provincial municipalities and 337 district municipalities across 81 provinces of the country. Overall, it garnered about 37.7% of the vote, compared to 35.4% of the vote of the AK Party, according to the unofficial results.

The vote was also the first time the CHP got ahead of the ruling party in general and legislative elections in about 21 years. The AK Party still retains a majority in the Parliament, but some opposition supporters believe that this might be the time to call for an early election amid the defeat of the AK Party. Media reports said the CHP's MYK discussed the issue but decided it would be wrong to make an early election call solely based on the municipal election outcome.

Party Chair Özgür Özel, who spoke to a pro-CHP broadcaster on Thursday, said he supported it, but that the CHP would not demand it.

"(Such a call) will disrespect voters of the AK Party and the MHP," he said, referring to the Nationalist Movement Party, the main ally of the ruling party.

"Early elections will only take place once they ask for it. We won't be daunted anyway if President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan competes for the presidency again; we won't shy away from an early election," Özel said.

Özel replaced Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu last November as the new CHP chairperson. The latter lost to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in last May's two-round presidential election. Kılıçdaroğlu's loss, despite the support from an opposition bloc, only contributed to his downfall and Özel emerged as a contender promising "change" in CHP, Türkiye's oldest party.

Experts tie the CHP's success not entirely to Özel but to a mix of factors, from an electorate disillusioned with high inflation to some lackluster candidates of the AK Party. Indeed, the CHP won in constituencies it barely succeeded in winning for decades, such as Afyonkarahisar in the west and other places where AK Party mayors fared relatively well in past elections.

The CHP's success fueled a debate over whether it may win the 2028 presidential elections after the lengthy tenure of President Erdoğan. But in any case, it will likely be another prominent figure of the CHP that will run against Erdoğan in the next election, not Özel – namely Ekrem Imamoğlu. The politician recently secured a second term as mayor of Istanbul, Türkiye's most populated city and economic capital. Imamoğlu is already claimed to be pulling the strings in the party and deciding which candidate to pick in the municipal vote. He raised his profile with his unprecedented victory in the 2019 election.

As he formally received an official document approving his victory, he addressed a large crowd of supporters outside an Istanbul courthouse where the local electoral board is housed. The mayor said he was honored to win the second term and hit out at the government again, claiming they blocked the approval for the municipality's projects, from new metro lines to energy facilities. On Thursday, in another ceremonial occasion for taking office at the city hall, Imamoğlu asked the government "to work together."

"I tell Mr. President again today. Please give us an appointment. I am ready to talk to you," he said.

Parliament is authorized to approve an early election, but a consensus of at least 360 lawmakers is needed. Likewise, the president can issue a decree for an early election. Erdoğan signaled earlier that the municipal election was the last election he participated in as president. Under the current Constitution, he is not eligible for the 2028 election.

As prime minister and president, 70-year-old Erdoğan has helmed Türkiye for over two decades, the longest-serving politician in either role. He also led Türkiye's switch to an executive presidency system and became the first such president when the public directly elected him in the 2018 elections. He was reelected to the office in the May 2023 elections. Under Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution, the president's tenure is limited to five years and they can be reelected only for two consecutive tenures.

Erdoğan has two options now to have a chance of reelection and both seem hindered by insurmountable challenges, at least for now. One option involves amending the Constitution. However, for an amendment without the requirement of a public referendum, Erdoğan will need 400 votes in Parliament. The AK Party and the MHP retain 313 seats in Parliament as part of the People's Alliance.

The other option is based on the current Constitution, which says the president can be nominated again if Parliament approves a renewal of elections in their second tenure with 360 votes.