The dissidents in the Turkish opposition’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) on Sunday wrestled Istanbul away from Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in an intraparty vote preceding a big congress next month when the CHP leadership will be up for grabs amid a deepening schism.

Less than six months left until local elections scheduled for March 2024, District Chair Özgür Çelik, who has been vocally pro-change at his party following yet another electoral defeat, was named the head of CHP’s Istanbul office, beating 342 to 310 his only rival Cemal Canpolat, who has been firmly on Kılıçdaroğlu’s side.

"To anyone who will be debating the CHP tomorrow, debate those who determine district chairs under the tyranny of leadership. The CHP will keep intraparty democracy alive," Çelik pointedly told the congress after his victory.

But his win doesn’t preview a similar victory for CHP’s pro-change members at next month’s big congress, according to ex-member Mehmet Sevigen, who claimed the party was "doomed to another term under Kılıçdaroğlu at this rate."

"Kılıçdaroğlu will keep his seat at the congress and so long as CHP enters next year’s mayoral elections under him, they are guaranteed to lose Istanbul and Ankara," Sevigen, a prominent CHP politician who previously served as a minister and a lawmaker until his discharge in 2021, told Daily Sabah.

A new leadership in CHP, which would replace Kılıçdaroğlu’s 13-year reign, could energize opposition masses in time for mayoral elections. However, the party has been facing public outcry and a growing rift between Kılıçdaroğlu’s supporters and critics who have been chanting for change since the crushing defeat in May’s general elections. Kılıçdaroğlu, named incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s contender on behalf of the six-party Nation Alliance after much debate in the first place, has been endlessly criticized for his role in the opposition’s failure and repeatedly urged to step down.

The divide between the sides became stark at Sunday’s congress as deputies often booed at certain members that took to the dais, including Çelik and Ekrem Imamoğlu, CHP’s popular Istanbul mayor initially headed a charge for change until he seemingly settled for "the bigger cause" and opted to rerun in local elections.

On Sunday, he was visibly upset when Canpolat alleged the mayor had hired delegates "specifically to get their votes" at the congress.

"That’s no way to talk. They have disgraced the CHP to the entire country. Such a shame," the mayor was heard to be saying as he left the hall.

Before that, he claimed any criticism of CHP leadership "cannot be interpreted as an attack on them or an intraparty divide."

Since the highest number of delegates come out of Istanbul, sources close to the party argued the outcome of Sunday’s assembly could directly influence the intraparty vote at the 57th CHP congress set for Nov. 4-5, but according to Sevigen, that possibility is slim to none.

Moreover, the congress demonstrated that Canpolat was "forced to bear the brunt of Kılıçdaroğlu’s sins as Imamoğlu’s crew won Istanbul, leaving Ankara to Kılıçdaroğlu," Sevigen said, meaning Ümit Erkol, a staunch Kılıçdaroğlu supporter who won Ankara at the provincial congress last month.

"They essentially divvied up Istanbul and Ankara amongst themselves," Sevigen said, implying Kılıçdaroğlu gave the city away for his continued leadership.

In the 2019 polls, for the first time in over two decades, the CHP won control of Türkiye’s top megacities, Istanbul and Ankara, in addition to historical stronghold Izmir, which collectively host a sizable chunk of the country’s population — nearly 26 million people.

Endorsement from the opposition’s second-biggest Good Party (IP), a Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) breakaway, and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which is affiliated with the PKK terrorist group, boosted Imamoğlu for Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş for Ankara.

After May, however, the IP walked out of the six-party bloc as Chair Meral Akşener revealed plans to compete with her own mayoral candidates in Istanbul, similar to HDP’s intentions. In a contradictory policy met with resignations at her party, the IP chair also rebuked any possibility of another alliance while still floating the idea that "cooperation" could be on the table for mayoral candidates.

According to Sevigen, Akşener intends to discard the CHP altogether and the CHP must do the same "because Akşener has no support in either Istanbul or Ankara."

"People don’t trust Akşener. Wherever she is, votes go down. If they distance themselves from Akşener, the CHP has a shot," Sevigen said.

He further pointed to "an emotional disconnect" at CHP caused by Imamoğlu’s behavior, something he said the mayor must "complete if he doesn’t want to lose Istanbul."

"He must rally first the CHP and then the HDP if he wants to be nominated again, but if he does so behind Kılıçdaroğlu’s back, he will have divided the CHP in two," he noted.

Sevigen wasn’t optimistic about Imamoğlu’s "bravery," however, dismissing even the remote idea that the mayor could entirely break away from the CHP to found his own political movement.